AUUUUUGGH!!! Bubble play with the short(-ish) stack.

[Grisgra]

Now I remember why I stopped playing SNGs. At least, Party SNGs.

$20/2 NL Hold 'em.

I survive to the Bubble. 100/200 blinds, 3 hands away from 150/300, and I've got about 1200 -- other three stacks are between 1700 and 2500. None of them seem like dopey fish.

The other three clearly aren't getting into confrontations, they ARE going all-in as steals (or maybe not complete steals), so it's clear I need to make a move relatively soon.

Guy open-raises UTG for 600. I read this as a couple of decent overcards, maybe AK. I have 55. I reraise all-in, he calls, and he hits on the river.

Bad move on my part? Do I just try to steal with junk and hope I don't get called/get lucky? It seems I played it okay -- had a good read, went all-in with the (marginally) best hand . . .

And ended up out of the money, yet again.

What the HELL do I do in those situations? Really tired of finishing fourth. I suppose I could go back to Paradise, their SNGs allow a bit more room for play by the time you get to 4-5 players . . .

Help?

[Voltron87]

If you think there is a zero chance of your opponent folding, why would you go all in? If you have 900 chips if you fold (correct me if I'm wrong), you still have room to work with. A min raise often is a sign of strength, and 55 is a coinflip (or worse) to everything.

The point of raising all in is that a large percentage of the time your opponent folds. 50% of the time they fold (making these #'s up), 50 % they call and its a 50 50. 75% of the time you win.

If you think they are not going to fold, you lose this edge and it is a fold, since next hand you can push w/ any 2 and get a likely fold.

[Voltron87]

Follow up-

There are no satisfying plays here, I understand the message. But here I would advise against putting youre tournament life on the line with a 5050 unless you think he will fold to your reraise. If he will fold, it is a reraise.

If he won't fold, you fold then push with any two.

[texasrattlers]

Are you on the BB here? If yes, then folding means you have 1000 and the other three have 1700-2500. If not and you fold, then you have 1200 and assuming everyone else folds your opponents still have about 1700-2500. So the question is: By folding will you have at least a 50% chance to make it into the money? I wonder if someone has an idea of his % chance of getting into the money given these stack sizes. If they are less than 50%, then a call w/ the 55 is the best play, right?

[EnderW27]

If you put him on two overs and you know for certain he's not going to fold for a reraise all-in, you have a few options.

1) Fold and wait for a better opportunity.

2) Go all-in and hope your 2-6% edge holds out here.

3) Stop and go. Push your remaining 600 on the flop. I really that if you're in the blind, this is the best play here. He's not going to hit his pair the majority of the time on the flop and if he doesn't, he may fold to your push. Sure, most of the time he won't. But that's better than the absolute 0% folding equity you'd get preflop.
And if he did hit his pair and calls you? Well, the exact same thing would have happened had you pushed preflop. No loss there.
And there's even one more benefit to the stop and go. If you have a middle pair and the flop comes down something stupid like KJT or AQJ and you know for certain your opponent has hit his pair, you can save your last 600!

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
If you put him on two overs and you know for certain he's not going to fold for a reraise all-in, you have a few options.

1) Fold and wait for a better opportunity.

2) Go all-in and hope your 2-6% edge holds out here.

3) Stop and go. Push your remaining 600 on the flop. I really that if you're in the blind, this is the best play here. He's not going to hit his pair the majority of the time on the flop and if he doesn't, he may fold to your push. Sure, most of the time he won't. But that's better than the absolute 0% folding equity you'd get preflop.
And if he did hit his pair and calls you? Well, the exact same thing would have happened had you pushed preflop. No loss there.
And there's even one more benefit to the stop and go. If you have a middle pair and the flop comes down something stupid like KJT or AQJ and you know for certain your opponent has hit his pair, you can save your last 600!

[/ QUOTE ]



I basically posted the same thing without option 3. I really like option three, since 600 is enough to put someone (not everyone though) off a missed hand.

[Grisgra]

Hmmmmmm that's a very interesting idea, SNG at the SNG . . . har har har.

Seriously, I think I shoulda done that -- though I wasn't in a blind.

I really get mixed up in these situations -- it seems like I'm always getting to the bubble with a short stack, always going all-in at the end with a 52% to 65% edge, and then getting busted out of the money. I'm wondering whether I should just be sitting back and calling NO raises at that point, only doing the open-all-in stealing with garbage like K3o and praying nobody picks up a hand.

I guess . . . ?