I'm a winning blackjack player!

[LinusKS]

Last week I completed about $50,000 of play-through at two casinos, playing mostly $10 blackjack.

Using Homer's confidence calculator (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1342415&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1), and inputing my data from those sessions (5000 hands, average .40/hand, SD = $10), I was able to calculate, with a better than 99.5% confidence, that I'm a winning blackjack player.

I'm very excited about my new-found blackjack prowess, and can't wait to start making a living as a professional.

I figure it's not that I'm such a great blackjack player, it's just that those online casino dealers really are that bad.

Moral of the story: if you can't make at least 4 bets/100 playing $10 blackjack, you must be a moron.

[Freakin]

Why not just practice winning roulette? I think the payout would be much bigger. The professional roulette players make way more than professional blackjack players. Go out a pick up a book on which numbers come up more often. I'm sure someone in these forums woudl be willing to sell you a pattern mapper. Congrats on your blackjack preformance so far. Good luck.

Freakin

[BusterStacks]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just practice winning roulette? I think the payout would be much bigger. The professional roulette players make way more than professional blackjack players. Go out a pick up a book on which numbers come up more often. I'm sure someone in these forums woudl be willing to sell you a pattern mapper. Congrats on your blackjack preformance so far. Good luck.

Freakin

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet you think you are being pretty clever with your sarcasm. Really though, you just look even more retarded. Blackjack is very beatable, and just because you can't do it, doesn't mean nobody can.

[DeucesUp]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet you think you are being pretty clever with your sarcasm. Really though, you just look even more retarded. Blackjack is very beatable, and just because you can't do it, doesn't mean nobody can.

[/ QUOTE ]

Be care when you call people retarded. Online blackjack is NOT beatable*.


*unless, of course, you include casino bonuses, comps etc as part of your winnings. In this case roulette can be beatable as well.

[BusterStacks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet you think you are being pretty clever with your sarcasm. Really though, you just look even more retarded. Blackjack is very beatable, and just because you can't do it, doesn't mean nobody can.

[/ QUOTE ]

Be care when you call people retarded. Online black is NOT beatable*.


*unless, of course, you include casino bonuses, comps etc as part of your winnings. In this case roulette can be beatable as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow I doubt that was the thinking behind that response.

[Thythe]

All jokes aside, if you did the calculations correctly, and it said you were a winning blackjack player online, that would be very surprising.

[SamJack]

Only way that you can be a "winning player" in blackjack is if you count cards. This is impossible on on-line play because most of the software reshuffles every hand.

Since the house edge on blackjack when played perfectly is fairly small, you can make a profit taking advantage of the promotions/bonuses.

To make a statement such as "I am a winning blackjack player" is simply... well... ignorant.

SamJack

[Freakin]

Buster,

Blackjack, like every other casino game, is not beatable. The house will always win as far as gameplay is concerned. There is a reason why a casino will not (usually) object to your use of a card with bj strategy on it. Counting cards is what gives you an edge over the house; that is why the house does not 'allow' it. As it has been said several times in this post already, you can't count cards in online blackjack. Therefore, you cannot beat online blackjack from a gameplay standpoint. You can be lucky and make money on it in the short term, and you can overcome the house edge with the continual bonuses. But without counting cards or bonuses, the house will win and you will lose. Period.

Freakin

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just practice winning roulette? I think the payout would be much bigger. The professional roulette players make way more than professional blackjack players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this post is a joke, but in fact, it's correct. A winning roulette player wipes the floor with a winning blackjack player.

eastbay

[Rah]

Casinos: Beware of the blackjack bots!!!

[Rudbaeck]

[ QUOTE ]
All jokes aside, if you did the calculations correctly, and it said you were a winning blackjack player online, that would be very surprising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he was only 99.5% certain, so 5 people out of every 1000 basic strategy players out there would be in this confidence interval.

And to keep to the forum rules regarding OP: Your sample size is to small. Come back after 100k more hands.

Ps. To those blind to all humor online, yes I do realize that sample size is already taken into consideration in the calculation of the confidence interval and thus his sample size is in fact not too small. If we had nothing but his statistics to go we'd have to agree that it was 99.5% certain he was a winning bj player. Now we happen to know that the house (almost) always has the advantage and he is the last 0.5% of that interval. Ds.

[EliteNinja]

[ QUOTE ]
Last week I completed about $50,000 of play-through at two casinos, playing mostly $10 blackjack.

I'm very excited about my new-found blackjack prowess, and can't wait to start making a living as a professional.

I figure it's not that I'm such a great blackjack player, it's just that those online casino dealers really are that bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

We all know that internet blackjack only pays out between roughly 95-98% even if you play perfect basic strategy without counting (and counting is impossible online).

Either he's found two online casinos that are possible to win at with payouts >100%, or he's in the 5 out of 1000 that are winning.

I don't think that one can be >99.5% certain that these two online casinos are beatable. Therefore he's gotta just be on variance.

[fluff]

[ QUOTE ]
We all know that internet blackjack only pays out between roughly 95-98% even if you play perfect basic strategy without counting (and counting is impossible online).

[/ QUOTE ]

We do? I thought HA was more like 0.5%.

I think you are confusing payout with house advantage.

[eric5148]

Playtech blackjack switch is beatable without bonuses. The HA is .05% and they give you .1% cash back. So with $50,000 wagered, your EV is $25. I don't know of any other online casino that has beatable BJ.

Were you playing live or online? If you're playing live and the dealers are sloppy, you can beat it.

[SamJack]

[ QUOTE ]
Playtech blackjack switch is beatable without bonuses. The HA is .05% and they give you .1% cash back.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe this is true. I don't know about the cash back, but the HA for playtech is closer to .5% NOT .05%

SamJack

[eric5148]

HA in BJ switch is .05% (http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/bj_switch.html)

[Kenrick]

[ QUOTE ]
I know this post is a joke, but in fact, it's correct. A winning roulette player wipes the floor with a winning blackjack player.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, but a winning state lottery player wipes the floor with the roulette player. The only hard part is becoming a winning player.

[Rudbaeck]

[ QUOTE ]
We all know that internet blackjack only pays out between roughly 95-98% even if you play perfect basic strategy without counting (and counting is impossible online).

[/ QUOTE ]

Where in the name of god are you playing?

95%?
Let's see what we can do to get a 5% HA starting with Atlantic City rules and then changing parts of it. (Initial house edge is 0.433%)
Dealer hits soft 17. 0.22%
No peek. 0.11%
Player may not resplit. 0.10%
Player may double on 10,11 only. 0.18%
Player may not double splits. 0.14%
Player loses 17,18 ties. 3.58%

Total HA: 4.763%

Anyone playing the above should be shot.


Ps. Initial rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, player may double after split, player may double on any two, resplit to 4 hands, no surrender, aces split only once and no drawing to split aces.

[Spicymoose]

Homer's confidence calculator works, but only if you have your true SD. You got lucky enough in your 5000 hands that what you think is your SD is far enough away from your true SD, and your 99.5% confidence isn't so confident anymore.

[Rudbaeck]

[ QUOTE ]
Homer's confidence calculator works, but only if you have your true SD. You got lucky enough in your 5000 hands that what you think is your SD is far enough away from your true SD, and your 99.5% confidence isn't so confident anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhm, you are wrong. There is no 'true' SD, there is only the SD of the sample.

As other facts tells us that it's impossible to be an expected long term winner at blackjack we know that his sample actually belongs to the last 0.5%, but statistics on his sample can't tell us that.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
Playtech blackjack switch is beatable without bonuses. The HA is .05% and they give you .1% cash back. So with $50,000 wagered, your EV is $25. I don't know of any other online casino that has beatable BJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

WOW!

I am 100% shocked that I have never heard of an online blackjack switch pro....

....well then again you'd need a huge bankroll and to wager the max bet every time to make it worth it.....and then the casino would cancel your account for no reason so you couldn't play.

[Spicymoose]

True, there is no absolutely correct SD, but over 1,000,000,000 hands, playing under similar conditions, your SD would converge to some "true" SD. It would constinantly be changing, but this is the same as there is no "true" BB/100 hand rate, but you can estimate it with your statistic in the past x hands. The whole point of these confidence intervals is using statistics to estimate true values, but when you use statistics upon statistics, your results get skewed in the wrong direction.

Far more people would observe similar results than just .5%. This is true because so many people off SD's that are not as accurate as they should be, and so get invalid results.

[Rudbaeck]

[ QUOTE ]
The whole point of these confidence intervals is using statistics to estimate true values, but when you use statistics upon statistics, your results get skewed in the wrong direction.

[/ QUOTE ]

No they don't. Especially not in such a trivial example as calculating a confidence interval given SD and win rate. No matter how high your win rate and low your SD you will still never be 100% certain you are a winner.

Remember for example that Bobby Baldwin turned a hundred bucks into $200k in one evening playing BJ so far from basic strategy it wasn't even funny. This is an incredibly rare occurence, but it does happen.

[fireman664]

IT's RIGGED!!!!!!!! There is no way that a dealer will hit 21 2 out of 3 times. This proves that it is rigged. I know I am a winning blackjacker, so why cant I beat these games...the answer...they are cheating me.

ps: 100% bonus from homers post is still ongoing
http://www.888Casino.com/main.cgi?refererID=505551

[LLXC]

Aww dude...don't post an affiliate link. /images/graemlins/mad.gif