TT - bet the river?

[Spicymoose]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls $4 (All-In), BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP3 folds.

River: (13 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero ...</font>

Luckily one of my opponent is all in, so its basically heads up. It does not seem like this guy was drawing to anything (except possibly drawing simply to hit a pair?), so I doubt he will fold to a river bet. I will get check raised here if he has a 5, but that won't be all that often. So the question is: Am I ahead here enough of the time to warrant a bet, or should I just check behind?

Would this decision be changed if my 2nd opponent wasn't all in?

Final Pot: 15 BB

Thanks,
Spicymoose

[Louie Landale]

Before the river how often you are ahead plays the dominant role in deciding to bet. On the river, however, things change drastically. The real questions are [1] will I win most of the time WHEN CALLED, or [2] can I induce a bluff by checking.

In this case you really need to decide how likely he is to have a Q or a 5 compared to a 6 or a 3 AND will call the bet with it. It doesn't matter how often he has nothing and won't call, since you are going to win those pots anyway.

This is a tough decision. Bet against the loose tenacious folks (likely to have and play small cards); bet against aggressive folks (likely to have raised previously with a Q). Check against the tight folks (unlikely to have small cards, likely to check-and-call with a Q). Sweat it out against other folks.

I'd be MORE inclined to bet with two potential callers than with one.

Generally bet the river if you believed you had the best hand on the turn.

Note: this situation is a minor argument for NOT raising PF with your TT: you don't know how to play with a single over-card since these folks tend to check-to-the-raiser. Isn't it better if they BET their Qs letting you off easy?

[jclin]

I think you have to check/call this one. Way too many players. But, raising PF is fine. TT is a tricky hand with one overcard, but I think it really depends on how many players are in. In this instance, it's much too likely he/she has a Q.