Ed Miller says never fold in big pots, and I have an overpair but.....

[partygirluk]

$1/$2 on Interpoker. I get dealt the Black Jacks in the SB, my second hand in the table.

I raise three limpers, and the BB calls.

The flop is pretty nice

6H4D7H

I bet, 1 fold, everyone else calls to the button who raises, I 3 bet, he 4 bets, everyone merrying calling along.

Turn is 6D

I bet everyone calls, Button raise, everyone calls.

River is 7D

I check, check, bet, now the button calls, I call.

What do you think? When I was 4 bet on the flop I thought I was behind, but a hand like 9H8H seemed reasonable too. Also, he could be overplaying 99 or TT here. When I was raised on the turn however, should I have given it up? How about on the river? I know that I am behind a high percentage of the time here, but am I good enough times to call?

I think this can only be answered by someone who has been in this kind of situation 100 odd times, and thus has a reasonable pool of experience from which to calculate the likelihood of being ahead? Lacking this experience, I have to reconcile my gut telling me "fold" with my head telling me "This is a big pot and your second hand at the table, and you really dont KNOW that you are beat, so call"

FWIW, Button has $132 in front of him.

[Shillx]

I might just call the button raise and check/raise the turn. The flop is co-ordinated and it doesn't look like anyone is folding. I think it might be worth the risk in this case. Having said that, I don't understand the turn bet. He probably will not cap the flop on the draw. I will check the turn and dump it if it's 2 cold to me. Fold the river.

Shill

[partygirluk]

If you C/R a blank turn and are three bet, what do you do?
Also, what is your turn plan for non blank cards?

Any Ace, King, Queen, Heart, Ten, Nine, Eight, Seven, Six, Five, Four, or Three could be dangerous.

[ncboiler]

When did Ed Miller say "Never fold in big pots?" Some people read more into his advice then what is there and end up playing like maniacs. He may have said it and I missed it or breezed over it in the book.

[Shillx]

Fold if you get 3-bet.
If the turn card is real scary then check/fold. If it is a queen or something then I might just lead out and fold to a raise.

Shill

[milesdyson]

In the "Why you guys aren't crushing ... " post.

He said, "You're folding too much," however, it's true, some people are using this as a reason to call where they really shouldn't be calling.

[ncboiler]

[ QUOTE ]
He said, "You're folding too much,"

[/ QUOTE ]

I rest my case. Unless "To much" now means never. If it does then I appeal.

[partygirluk]

Right. So he says most people fold too much in big pots. And here I have JJ on a 7 high board. My instinct is telling me I am beat, but the pot odds dangled in front of me are oh so tempting. Lets say after the turn raise, in actuality, taking into consideration all known information, I am good 1/8 times.

Now lets assume that someone does not know that the true figure is 1/8, but instead has been in this situation 50 times previously, and bases his estimate on the 50 situations he has been in. i.e. If he has been good 10 of those times, then he (erroneously) assumes the chance of being ahead as 20 per cent and acts accordingly. Now, given that he has been in this kind of situation 50 times and the de facto likelihood of being ahead is 1/8, his estimate based on observations could well be quite deviant from .125. Simple math will provide a 99 per cent confidence interval, and I expect it to be quite wide. Factor in the number of total hands required to reach 50 hands "of this type", the fact that all the hands will in reality be different to each other etc. and it becomes difficult to estimate accurately whether you are likely enough to be ahead to warrant calling down in a big pot. Unless of course, you have reams of experience.

Sure, I can play a lot and get experience, but I want that to be as unexpensive as possible.

Re. the turn bet, I guess my thinking was thus

"If I just call down it will cost me 2 BB to find out I am beat. If I bet into him after a capped flop and he still raises me then I can safely fold."
But then I ignored my gut, and my initial plan, and called down anyway. Which is not the hallmark of a great poker player I think.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the turn bet. He probably will not cap the flop on the draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I were button, I would happily cap a heart draw against 3 opponents on the flop.

[Shillx]

Yeah so would I, but typical players don't do these types of things.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah so would I, but typical players don't do these types of things.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been bet into and then 3-bet on the turn before by A-high that picked up a flush draw, no pair; it happens.

I agree that I prefer calling the flop raise and check-raising a non-scary card. Given relative position we have a great opportunity to make the field face 2BB cold and fold out overs.

[Shillx]

Yeah it's just something to consider. The button might take the free card on us, which you have to worry about. I just hate getting into a flop war with a marginal hand when I know that everyone has a good shot of drawing out on me.

Shill

Did we get results yet?

[zuluking]

I would check/call the turn and river and hope he was on a heart draw or OESD. Most times you lose to the FH, but its +EV to check/call to the end here.

[partygirluk]

Button had 44 and mystery river better had T9 of diamonds!

[Shillx]

So do you agree with my analysis that you should have gone for a check/raise? I feel like it is risky, but might be worth it here. Told ya to fold the river. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[partygirluk]

No I don't. I think that I can safely fold to the raise on the turn.

[tolbiny]

As far as folding to the turn raise- Don't. Without going back and doing the math you still have to be at least 17-1 here, not quite good enough odds to spike your set, but you only have to be ahead a small amount of the time to call.

On the other hand you can easily fold this river. The river paired the top card and you got a new better and the original raiser called. The odds of you being ahead of both, as well as the other two limpers (one of which could be playing a very wierd 6, or going for a c/r with a 7) is very slim. Sadly every now and then i would expect to see your oppooents turn over An Ace high flush draw and pocket T's, but much more realisticallly will be the button turning over 44, or 46 or a flopped straight here. I don't think this is a good river call at all.