A mass of rationalizations?

[Octopus]

Immediately after I clicked call on the flop, I decided that I should have raised. I still think so. Never-the-less, below is the thought process I went through before I clicked.

MP3 and CO are loose passive (47/1 and 52/0 respectively, both with post-flop aggression numbers below 1.)

Button is TA-N (17/6, post-flop aggression = 1.5)

BB is sLP-P (24/4 and 1.1)

(By the way, not in this hand are EP3 (38/3/.8), and MP1 (32/4/.9). Let's hear it for table selection, if not seat selection.)


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: (11 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, ...

Overcards would be getting 7-1 and so might call even if I raise; I can't really protect my hand here against them. I won't be able to tell if I've been drawn out on if an overcard comes anyway (if I am ahead in the first place). (Note that gutshots will be making an error calling even 1 bet, since their straight outs are no good, so I don't want to protect my hand against them.) And the deciding factor: BB has a PRF% of 4% (over 200 hands), so I would say he has a greater than average likelihood of having a bigger pocket pair (and so having me drawing to the equivalent of 3 outs). Looking back now, I have seen him raise out of the blinds twice before this hand, with KK and AQo. For these reasons, I decided to call and wait to see the turn.

Do I play as badly as I think I do?

[vegasvegas]

I'd be cautious if a passive player raises me pre-flop and then bets the flop out of position. I'd probably raise the flop and fold to a reraise. If he just calls your raise, he might give you a free river card, too.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

On the flop you should raise or fold. Given your read of BB, I would lean towards folding.

[Octopus]

Against a big pocket pair, I have two outs to a full house, plus a no-gap backdoor straight draw for about 3.5 outs equivalent. I am getting 12-1 at this point. Even if he showed me AA, I would be correct to call if I knew no one behind me would raise. My other opponents are all passive. Furthermore, there is a non-trivial chance that I am ahead. I am not folding.

[vegasvegas]

I wouldn't count the backdoor straight for much. Anybody with a single 7 draws to the same straight, and depending conceivable hands like 44, 55, 99, TT can blow you away even if you hit 45, 59 or 9T for your straight.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't count the backdoor straight for much. Anybody with a single 7 draws to the same straight, and depending conceivable hands like 44, 55, 99, TT can blow you away even if you hit 45, 59 or 9T for your straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

A seven is pretty unlikely (I have two of them). On the other hand, you are right; 1.5 outs is too much for the backdoor straight. 1 is probably reasonable though. I still think folding is too weak-tight here.

I am now back to thinking I played ok. If I thought it likely that I was ahead of the BB, a raise would be clear. If I were certain I were behind, a raise would be poor (and a fold would be possible, though as I said, I think wrong). It is this middle ground where I am confused.

If nothing good comes on the turn AND BB bets out again, I can fold then. If I pick up a straight draw, I can call a BB turn bet. Same if it gets raised behind me on the flop.

[Louie Landale]

You are probably beat and definately out of position vis-a-vis the better and the other folks (you are sandwiched). This hand is NOT going to play easily on the turn or river unless you snag a 7. The best that can happen is everyone else folds and you are a small favorite wielding a hand you clearly wish was all-in (its a "scared" hand).

The rationalization you need in order to call a single bet is this: will you be able to play confidently on the turn? Usually that means folding without a second thought.

Nothing good about this situation. Toss for a single bet.

- Louie

[jclin]

[ QUOTE ]
I am now back to thinking I played ok. If I thought it likely that I was ahead of the BB, a raise would be clear. If I were certain I were behind, a raise would be poor (and a fold would be possible, though as I said, I think wrong). It is this middle ground where I am confused.

If nothing good comes on the turn AND BB bets out again, I can fold then. If I pick up a straight draw, I can call a BB turn bet. Same if it gets raised behind me on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think either a call or raise is good. Call is fine, but you don't gain information. Raise IMO is better, b/c if he calls, you'll most likely get a free turn and river card. If he 3-bets, you call, pray for a 7 9 or 5, and fold on turn to a bet if it is a blank.