One of us is wrong.....

[Hallett]

I have troube in games like this, where there is one guy playing his hand too strong. Makes it very hard for me to read what they have. Here, I put both of these guys on AX, and thought I would lose at the end to AQ or AJ. On the turn I am certain I am behind, but I have the straight outs, and the pot is massive. I was wrong about the reads though. Where should I get off this hand?


Live 6/12 game, very loose. I am button with
A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif


MP2 is loose aggressive, BB is reasonable, but a bit loose as well.

folded to MP2 who limps. Folded to me, I raise. BB three bets, MP2 caps.

Flop is A /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif
BB checks, MP2 bets, I raise, BB raises, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

Turn is Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif. BB Bets, MP2 raises, hero.....calls /images/graemlins/confused.gif.... BB three bets, MP2 calls, hero calls.

River is 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif BB bets, MP2 calls, hero calls.

Results later....

[Hallett]

BB has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif, for the flopped set.

MP2 had a ridiculous 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Because MP2 limp-capped and then went nuts on the flop, I put him on at least a good ace. The A /images/graemlins/heart.gif is on the board, and I have the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif, so I don't really think he has a flush draw at all. Because of the way MP2 played his hand, it messed me up on BB, who in retrospect played his hand just like he had AA. His hand should have been easy to read, but I put each of my villains on a single A, which is a huge mistake. When should I lay this down. Can I after the turn, when I pick up the gutshot?

Thanks..

[k_squared]

Well I am interested to know what everyone had. Frankly though, if the BB is a reasonable player I think you have to fold when he continue to bet after the turn the way he does (and that you should probably fold when the betting is capped on the flop). Too many hands have you completely dominated, what card would you have been happy to hit to improve your hand? Only a ten helps and that might not even hog you the pot. A king makes a four card straight, and any heart gives you a redraw but might make someone else's flush (a heart would in fact be the best card for you)...

The crazy guy could have anything, but the guy you consider reasonably good would have to have you beat. There is no way he is playing that board with less than top pair top kicker, especially with the way the cards came out (unless he really isn't reasonably good!).

You should of folded on the flop when it was two more bets to you. You made a good stab at the pot, but your opponents were showing way to much strength to make top pair with some backdoor draws playable because of the high level of aggression. Even with all those outs you don't want to be putting 4 Big bets in the pot (on the turn) to catch a draw that pays 11-1 (your inside straight draw). To justify that you would need 44 big bets in the pot after the turn happens and given the betting already it is likely to assume it will be capped. At worst you are paying 4 big bets to play for 20 big bets already in the pot (from the capping pre-flop and flop, and the 8 additional big bets your opponenets will put in) and this is a likely scenario. Because of the aggression your draw is no longer truly valuable (+EV). When you look at the sum of the actions you are left committing way to much to make good on your investment in this pot.

I would say wait for the hands you are ahead to get involved ina slug fest like this UNLESS you have noticed that the reasonable player is highly affected by the maniacs aggression and as such will raise with nothing to force him to commit money into the pot. In that case it is a much greyer situation. Not knowing more about the play I put the 'reasonable' player on a set or two-pair and the LAG on a pair, two-pair or flush draw.

-K_squared

[Hallett]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I am interested to know what everyone had. Frankly though, if the BB is a reasonable player I think you have to fold when he continue to bet after the turn the way he does (and that you should probably fold when the betting is capped on the flop). Too many hands have you completely dominated, what card would you have been happy to hit to improve your hand? Only a ten helps and that might not even hog you the pot. A king makes a four card straight, and any heart gives you a redraw but might make someone else's flush (a heart would in fact be the best card for you)...

The crazy guy could have anything, but the guy you consider reasonably good would have to have you beat. There is no way he is playing that board with less than top pair top kicker, especially with the way the cards came out (unless he really isn't reasonably good!).

You should of folded on the flop when it was two more bets to you. You made a good stab at the pot, but your opponents were showing way to much strength to make top pair with some backdoor draws playable because of the high level of aggression. Even with all those outs you don't want to be putting 4 Big bets in the pot (on the turn) to catch a draw that pays 11-1 (your inside straight draw). To justify that you would need 44 big bets in the pot after the turn happens and given the betting already it is likely to assume it will be capped. At worst you are paying 4 big bets to play for 20 big bets already in the pot (from the capping pre-flop and flop, and the 8 additional big bets your opponenets will put in) and this is a likely scenario. Because of the aggression your draw is no longer truly valuable (+EV). When you look at the sum of the actions you are left committing way to much to make good on your investment in this pot.

I would say wait for the hands you are ahead to get involved ina slug fest like this UNLESS you have noticed that the reasonable player is highly affected by the maniacs aggression and as such will raise with nothing to force him to commit money into the pot. In that case it is a much greyer situation. Not knowing more about the play I put the 'reasonable' player on a set or two-pair and the LAG on a pair, two-pair or flush draw.

-K_squared

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your comments, this is exactly what I was looking for.

[kendal14]

I think you played fine until the turn. After the flop gets capped I hope to get the heart on the turn, because at this point I would assume I am dominated by AJ, a different two pair (by MP player) or a set. But with the PF re-raise and BB being reasonable AA would be my guess.

The gut shot draw on the turn is not enough to call because a 10 does not guarantee the whole pot (though now that I think about it... you probably are the only one still in with a K because it is the Kh). I give up and hope either one gets called down so you can figure out what MP2 had and take some notes.