Chickened out AA?

[vanHelsing]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (6 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero folds, Button folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: 7 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 6 BB, won by BB.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to BB.</font>

Now: bet the flop here? How often do I beat the field with this board?
Turn: Can't call, right?

[shant]

Checking that flop was terrible. You gave a free-card to any heart, and you also made it clear you didn't have a heart in your hand.

[J.R.]

I won't go into the extent or nature of my intial reaction, but after some thought I think I like your line more and more. Its like playing AQ on a Q5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif board when the BB bets into a big field and you close the action on the button (not the best example but its late and I'm tired). Lose the least, win the most depending on the turn card. With this many opponents your aren't folding all the hearts out there, and have no heart yourself so its not as if you had the 9h and could benefit from folding the Jh or Th. I know you are giving infinite odds but its debatable with a field this big as to whether the trade off is worth it. I'll think some more.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

I'd be betting because I don't want anyone with a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 to stick around, make their straight or trips, and think their hand is good (which it may or may not be). The flush draw is probably out there sure, but the flush is not the only thing you need to protect your hand from.

[J.R.]

Can you expect those hands to fold getting 13 or better to one? That's the crux of the problem, coupled with the decent number of cards that can beat you on the turn, if you're not already drawing to runner-runner(I know the last thought is very weak-tight, and while an somewhat unlikely scenario, its not altogether an improbable scenario).

[MoreWineII]

Interesting hand.

I don't think checking the flop is terrible. If a blank hits on the turn, I like a bet/raise though.

[shant]

But what do you do when you are bet into on the heart turn? I think with a bet on the flop, the only things betting into you when the heart turns are big hearts, so it's an easier fold.

[MoreWineII]

The odds of a flopped flush out there aren't high enough that I'd be too worried about it. I'm more afraid of the lone big heart. I think your equity is much higher on the turn if a non-heart, non-straight-like card hits.

I think hero is ahead on the flop, but with 6 players, I've got to wonder if he'll be ahead by the river. A flop bet might be kinda for value, but it's not going to protect his hand by a long shot.

This hand seems to have waiting-til-the-turn-like attributes. My logic way off?

Edit: My first post wasn't worded very well.

*If* the turn card is a heart, as it turns out it was, I'm folding. My bet/raise the turn comment was based on something like the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif hitting the turn.

[chesspain]

I think you played it fine. I don't see the point of betting the flop, given that you are up against five opponents, many potential turn/river cards that could crush you, and no draw other than to the idiot end of a possible, chopping str8.

By checking the flop, you got the free card, and got out when the board soured even more...well played.

[jclin]

I would bet the flop. Even if you are only 10% to win, that's 10 to 1, plus your % goes up significantly with a blank on the turn. Obviously, anyone with a high heart or 6 (or 2?) will not fold, but you got to make them pay.

[edthayer]

I think I'd always bet the flop after I raise with aces, and it's checked to me, no matter what.

For everyone who said checking is fine, would you all check it through if you had raised with AK /images/graemlins/club.gif and the flop had come: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif ?

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
For everyone who said checking is fine, would you all check it through if you had raised with AK /images/graemlins/club.gif and the flop had come: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif ?

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize that the hand above is more favorable than the hand below.

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Flop: (12 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>


[/ QUOTE ]

[edthayer]

Quote:
For everyone who said checking is fine, would you all check it through if you had raised with AK and the flop had come: A 2 3 ?



You do realize that the hand above is more favorable than the hand below.

Quote:
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, A.

Flop: (12 SB) 4, 5, 3 (6 players)

I don't think the difference is that big. In my example, there is slightly less of chance that your opponents are drawing to a straight, but I don't think that should keep you from betting in either situation.

[MattC]

bet the flop, if your reraised warning signs should go off, maybe there isnt a flush out there yet but some sort of 2 pair or straight or trips could already be out there and is trying to protect its hand.

with the turn being a heart your obviously beat so fold at that point, but chances are with so many callers, there arent that many hearts left to draw too so make the drawers pay to get that lucky heart because if it doesnt come your chances to win look nice to me as long as no one is playing really strongly back at you.

[vanHelsing]

Thanks for all the responses.
Just two words of what my thinking was:
Please note this is party 4/2.
The typical player won't fold any draw. So any 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or /images/graemlins/heart.gif will stay - at least for one bet. And they are usually right or not so wrong to do so. Plus the small propability I am drawing thin or even near to dead, I liked the idea of getting to see the turn for free.
My plan was to push my hand, if a blank came on turn. In this case (if my hand is still good) my chances of winning the pot will rise tremendously.
With me showing this weakness on flop any pair/overpair could get to live on turn and a raise could get the weaker draws to fold.
While I don't know if it was correct, I still like my line. It was inspired by some plays I read at Malmuth's Poker Essays III.
It just felt so unusual to fold AA not having invested a single bet postflop.

[J.R.]

Even if you are only 10% to win, that's 10 to 1, plus your % goes up significantly with a blank on the turn. Obviously, anyone with a high heart or 6 (or 2?) will not fold, but you got to make them pay.


Thta's certainly true, but consider:

1) your equity on the flop, if best, is fairly thin
2) any number of tunr cards can kill your hand (hearts, straight crads), so you will have to fold on the turn around 1/4th of the time, and you ahev saved a flop bet
3) you have a lot of opponents, in a smaller pot a bet is more reasonable
4) your % goes up on a good turn card, and by checking the flop, you may induce a bet from soemone as it looks as if you have missed overcards, in which you can compound your greater edge on a turn blank by popping it up to 2 bets.


Betting doesn't protect your hand or bring much value, but waiting to the turn allows you to get away more cheaply when beat, and to have a chance to put two bets into the pot as a much larger favorite, so it brings a much greater value play into the picture.

[DMBFan23]

2 corrollaries:

If we're bet into from EP, what's your line (mine would be call almost closing the action and eveluate the turn)

If we're bet into from LP, what's your line? (not sure whether to raise here or just wait for the turn - waiting looks good, but it looks close)

[J.R.]

I'd be more inclined to raise if bet into by an LP player, although my read on the bettor (will he follow thru on the turn if he gets called in a lot of places) and other players (will they fold for 2 what they would call for 1) and the number people between me and the bettor are other things that would weigh in my decision, everything else staying the same. I wouldn't raise the flop either in the first scenario you describe.

[DMBFan23]

thanks, just checking. I hate these kinds of flops, this is close to my least favorite AA flop.

[sthief09]

hmmm, there are 12 SB in the pot. you really gotta let all the hearts combine to make a bad call against you. they'll call with hands like T/images/graemlins/heart.gif9x or J/images/graemlins/heart.gif9x because they think they have overcards. well, if both of those hands call you, they have a collective 8 outs and have paid you 2-1 on that. seems like a pretty good deal. so many of them will call drwaing so thin to you, that you gotta bet. remember, disregarding sets and flushes, the only guy that's making a profitable call is the guy with the biggest heart. the rest of them are drawing to runner runner or to 2-4 outs. I'd be more inclined to check this with JJ or TT because most of them would be making profitable, or at least less -EV calls.

[shant]

After some more thought, I don't think checking here was terrible anymore, but I still would have bet it. Good arguments have been made for both plays.

[J.R.]

you really gotta let all the hearts combine to make a bad call against you.

Ignoring the specifics of your argument and this situation, in general, isn't it OK to forsake a profitable situation if doing so lets you take advantage of an even more profitable situtation. That's a big idea behind my thinking here, rightly or wrongly.

well, if both of those hands call you, they have a collective 8 outs and have paid you 2-1 on that. seems like a pretty good deal

Lets think about bets in the pot times pot equity. My hand does have to best on the river, otherwise, I don't get the money. There is a lot that can beat me, if I am still ahead. My equity over my fair share isn't that great on each bet that goes into the pot on this flop. After a lot of turn cards I will be drawing dead, no redraw.

so many of them will call drwaing so thin to you, that you gotta bet

I disagree that so many are drawing thin to me. Many are drawing thin to the field, not just to me, assuming I am best on this flop.

remember, disregarding sets and flushes, the only guy that's making a profitable call is the guy with the biggest heart. the rest of them are drawing to runner runner or to 2-4 outs

Huh? Not sure why you disregard flushes and sets, but made straights, OESDs, gutshots, 2 pair and pair + kickers are all making a profitable call (or very close to it, depending on their implied odds and how well they play) getting 13-1 or better.

I'd be more inclined to check this with JJ or TT because most of them would be making profitable, or at least less -EV calls.

Ignoring whether your statement is right or wrong, don't you need to consider the benefit to getting away from your hand more cheaply on a bad turn card (there are alot), and whether you can induce your opponents to make an even more -EV call (its probably better to think in terms of making a more profitable bet/raise on the turn). I agree and would check black tens or jacks here too.