99 - lots of Villians surrounding me

[Spicymoose]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Normally I reraise with 99, but with so many people, and such bad position.... I think not.

Flop: (10 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Bet was from middle position, so a c/r will do me little good. Figure my only chance here is to bet, get raised, and hope to stay in the lead. Even with 5 people, should I really be worried about that ace?

Turn: (9 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Good card, but we still have a lot of people in this hand. Now I'm getting scared.

River: (13 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

Another good card. Now with this many people, I don't know how likely it is that I am still ahead, but I figure the pot is pretty big, so it warrants a call.

Final Pot: 16 BB

I get confused when there are a lot of people in the pot, there isn't too much aggression, and my hand looks decently good.

Please comment.

Thanks,
Spicymoose

[Evan]

With 2 cold callers on the flop I start to worry. IMO the turn check sucks since you're forcing yourself to see a showdown pretty much. I'd bet the turn and fold to a raise, expecially if it comes from one of the coldcallers. Did MP have an ace?

[Spicymoose]

I like the idea of a turn bet/fold to a raise. If I did that and the river came as it did, what is your next line of action? Bet/fold to raise?

Sadly MP had 33.

[Evan]

A river raise here just looks random to me. If its only 1 bet back to me I call and take a note.

[djoyce003]

You are beat after the flop I think. This goes back to one of the items in the theory of poker. The guy betting can be bluffing, the guy calling cannot be bluffing. I probably would have check folded the flop, maybe i'm weak tight, but one of those players has an ace.

[Spicymoose]

I don't know why I would simply assume I am beat. There are only 2 aces left in the deck, and even though there are so many opponents, I am not convinced yet. As for your comment about the guy betting being able to bluff, but the guy calling not being able to... Doesn't this apply more after all the cards are out there? Sure the guy calling can't be bluffing, but he can be drawing (although maybe drawing dead) quite often.

Check/folding may be right, but I am not convinced yet.

[Russ McGinley]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why I would simply assume I am beat. There are only 2 aces left in the deck, and even though there are so many opponents, I am not convinced yet. As for your comment about the guy betting being able to bluff, but the guy calling not being able to... Doesn't this apply more after all the cards are out there? Sure the guy calling can't be bluffing, but he can be drawing (although maybe drawing dead) quite often.

Check/folding may be right, but I am not convinced yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to think more about the reasons why the hand has played out the way it has. On the turn, a player who had been silent has suddenly sprung into action. The board looks scary for your hand with two flush draws and two aces on board. I think your flop call was okay given the action, but the MP3 player suddenly betting looks really suspicious. He either caught something or he was slowplaying and did not want to give everybody a free river. I have to think the BB had two hearts there and his flop raise was to get a free card. It's difficult to think the 3 on the turn helped anybody, so I probably would have put MP3 on an ace. You were getting 11-1 pot odds to call the turn and 12-1 implied, so you were getting the right odds to call looking for a 9. Your action on the river is determined by the percentage of time you think you are beat in this situation. You are beat by any ace, two diamonds, 45, 33, 77, 66, and any higher PP. Based on the actions of MP3 springing to life on what appeared to be a blank turn, I think you need to figure you are beat here and save the bet.