River Decision

[bennyk]

How do you play this river?

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (7 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, BB calls.

River: (9 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero ???

[Shillx]

Bet. Fold to a check/raise. Almost all players will bet with a flush (a good flush, not a trashy one) when 4 are on board.

Shill

[bennyk]

Do you think missing this bet is a big mistake, or a small one?

bk

[Benman]

I say bet. You'll get called down by a smaller diamond, and maybe a four. He might even have trips but no flush. The question you need to ask yourself on the river when contemplating a value bet is how do I feel if my bet is merely called--more likely at that point to win or lose. I think if your opponent merely calls here you're more likely to win. Therefore a value bet is OK. If checkraised, then it's a matter of the player as to what to do. An astute person reading my advice would point out that the possibility of a checkraise ought to factor into your ininital decision of how likely you are to win after a mere call. In practice I don't worry too much about this myself. I cross that bridge when I get to it.

[bennyk]

I would estimate the risk of a checkraise is pretty high here, since I have been leading the whole hand. If I do get checkraised, I will have to fold often.

bk

[Shillx]

Small. He might not call your bet. He might call your bet with a better diamond. I don't see him check/raising here, but he might just check/call you with something like the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[jrz1972]

Without a read I guess I would bet this and fold to a check-raise. I think folding to the check-raise is pretty clear since players at this level don't bluff-check-raise the river often unless they're real sure they're taking the hand down. The decision to bet vs. check behind is close however, at least IMO. I would not argue too strongly with checking this one out.

[bennyk]

I checked it down and dragged the pot.

It felt weak, but prudent.

bk