Stats Question

[Hashiell_Dammett]

A couple of questions actually.

I used to only play in ring games and some MTTs but I started playing $5 and $10 S+Gs at Stars about 6 months ago. I'm including my stats for these S+Gs below.

I guess my first question is:
Is this sample size (203) even large enough to tell anything yet?

With a sample size this small, how certain can I be that my ROI is correct? +/- what?

As I continue to play more and more S+Gs at this level($5 and $10), are there any statiscal indicators that will tell me when it's time to move up to the $20 S+Gs?
Or do I just move up a level whenever I feel comfortable doing so?

Here are the stats.
Thanks
- Hash

One more thing if it matters: the S+G stats below are about 60% NL HE, 30% FL O8. The rest is a mixture of FLHE, PLO8 and PLO.
Which actually brings up one more question:

Should I be keeping track of different games separately if they are at the same money level?
I'm certain that I am equally competent in NLHE as in FLO8.
Thanks again.


Total of 203 tourneys processed

Total invested: $1819.00
Total won/lost: +$404.90
Return On Investment (ROI): +22.26%

Average percent rank finished: 64.46%
Percent times in the money: 48.77%

Average buy-in: $8.22
Average fee: $0.74

[AleoMagus]

Go here:

www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/Spreadsheet (http://www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/Spreadsheet)

(don't link to this. go there manually) and download the confidence calculator.xls file. It should answer many of your questions for you.

To just answer your question though, you can be pretty sure that you are a winning player after a couple hundred and a 20% ROI, but little else.

To precisely answer your question, I'd need your 1/2/3 breakdown as this is important in figuring your SD. Still, if I just assume an even distribution and a 22% ROI, then I come up with the following:

$18.19 Standard deviation (at the $11 level)
97% winning confidence

56% confidence in +/- $1/tourney, or ROI +/- ~10%
88% confidence in +/- $2/tourney, or ROI +/- ~20%

Keep in mind the ROI +/- figures are an amount that you add or subtract from ROI, not a ratio of your actual ROI, so +/- 10% means 12% to 22%. As I said then, you can be very sure that you are playing a winning game at your current level, but precise ROI calculations of the order of +/- a few percent is still a long way off.

I highly recommend downloading that confidence calculator or one of the many spreadsheets it is currently attatched to. Fiddle around with numbers on there to see how this will change over another ten/hundred/thousand SNGs.

Regards
Brad S

[ThorGoT]

Aleo, I can never seem to download your spreadsheet/change the numbers. /images/graemlins/frown.gif So sad! Can you help?

ThorGoT

[AleoMagus]

have you tried this site

http://rwa.homelinux.net/poker/20+2%20RESULTS.xls

Eastbay let me put my newest spreadsheet there and that spreadsheet has a confidence calculator in it. Remember, only change around the grey fields and the rest will calculate automatically.

Unfortunately, using that spreadsheet means that you cannot just fiddle with the numbers as easily as you can in the confidence calculator because it feeds directly from your entries. It can be done though and it will give you some idea.

Regards
Brad S

[Hashiell_Dammett]

Brad
Thanks for helping out the new guy /images/graemlins/wink.gif
This was exactly the kind of help I was looking for.

But now I have another question for Poker Stat users:
Is there a way to get Poker Stat to give me my 1/2/3 breakdown?
It only seems to give % Rank Finished which doesn't help me at all.

Please o please don't let the answer be to buy a different stat tracking software!
I think I might have to make a separate post for this.

[rjb03]

Compare the percentages of 1:2:3 then; the ratio will be the same.