Flushing money down the drain (long)

[TommyO]

I am convinced I lose more money on flushes than any other hand. Either I'm pumping the pot with flush draws that never get there or I'm losing my made hands to them. After an unusually wicked weekend where it seemed I just couldn't make a flush I decided to analyze my hand histories to see if it was just me going on tilt or it really was a bad run of cards.

To make a long story short, I wrote a program which identifies the hands where I was dealt suited cards and how many times I made a flush with them. Here's my results from this weekend:

Number of hands: 1524
Suited hands dealt: 340 (22.00%)
Suited hands folded preflop: 116 (34.00%)
Suited hands folded on flop: 68 (20.00%)
Suited hands folded on turn: 33 (9.00%)
Suited hands folded on river: 17 (5.00%)
Suited hands shown down: 108 (31.00%)
Suited hand winners: 53 (15.00%)
Made flushes: 5 (1.00%)

I was wondering if any of you experts out there would care to comment on these numbers. I don't claim to be a great (or even very good) poker player but I don't see how I could have possibly not lost money this past weekend when I only made a flush 1% of the time I had suited cards.

I would like to add that I don't play suited cards every time I get them. I muck suited cards to a raise unless they are QJ or better. I will play connected or Ax, Kx hands in early position or with > 3 people in the pot. I will only play gapped suited cards in late position if there are > 5 people in the pot. Hands like J2 are mucked every time.

I would greatly appreciate any feedback since I feel this is a huge leak in my game. Thanks.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
I will play connected or Ax, Kx hands in early position

[/ QUOTE ]

EEK! That is not good unless the game is extremely loose passive, and even then I would not play Kxs or connectors lower than 9T. (By extremely loose passive I mean an average of 5 people seeing the flop, many hands (say 1/2-2/3) going to a flop unraised and very few getting three or more bet). You are just asking for pain here. Also, I would not call a raise cold with suited connectors lower than KQ if only the raiser were in, and I muck KQs a lot, too, if only the raiser is in (really depends on the raiser and his position).

The fact that you play 66% of all suited hands indicates that you are way too loose. I am not surprised you are losing money on them. If playing the hand unsuited seems ludicrous, playing it suited is probably bad, too. (An obvious exception would be something like A4s on the button with 4 limpers in front of you).

[haakee]

Your stats indicate to me that you're seeing too many flops with suited mediocre hands. You say you play Kxs in EP, that's not a +EV play even if you're playing in a .5-1 game. Calling with small suited/connected hands in EP (e.g. 76s) is probably losing you money as well.

However, it also looks like you got fewer flushes than you should have expected over that time frame.

[TommyO]

The games I was playing in this weekend were pretty loose and passive. I was definitely playing more suited hands than usual because I was pretty sure I'd be seeing the flop for one bet with 4-5 other players. Are these hands still -EV in this situation?

[sabre170]

When you have a flush draw on the flop, you should make a flush by the river about 1 time in 3.
Your stats are quite consistent with that.
Note to self: Don't chase the flush, unless the pot offers better than 3 to 1.

[haakee]

You still can't profitably play Kxs in EP. I'd also imagine a hand like 87s or 76s is about breakeven UTG in that situation, assuming you can play it well postflop. I'd play 98s/T9s/J9s in EP in the game you described though.