KK Hand, Party 15-30

[The Dude]

Party Poker 15-30, 9 Handed. This is my second hand at this table, and I'm new to these games so I have no notes on anybody.

Preflop:
UTG raises, EP coldcalls, MP coldcalls, folded to The Dude who raises in LMP w/ K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB calls and BB calls, everyone calls.

Flop: (18 SBs) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 Players)</font>
SB bets, BB, UTG, EP, and MP all call. The Dude calls.

Turn: (12 BBs) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 Players)</font>
SB bets, everyone calls, The Dude raises. SB folds, everyone else calls.

River: (23 BBs) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 Players)</font>
Checked to The Dude who bets...

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Beautiful.

[The Dude]

The Dude abides.

[amirpc]

For my own education, did you wait till the turn to raise because the board was so draw heavy that you noone is going to fold on the flop? Or is there some other reason?

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
For my own education, did you wait till the turn to raise because the board was so draw heavy that you noone is going to fold on the flop? Or is there some other reason?

[/ QUOTE ]

ding

[The Dude]

There are several reasons I didn't raise the turn:

1. Raising the flop won't drive anyone out, so it doesn't do anything to protect my hand. (There's a chance SB will 3-bet, which might drive people out, but if he doesn't then the pot will be too big for anyone to fold on the turn, so it would encourage them to stick around for two more cards.)

2. My equity on the flop isn't really all that great. Don't get me wrong, it's more than 16% so raising would make me money, but not all that much. With this many callers, there are a ton of turn cards that would make me fold for one bet.

3. Raising the flop leaves me likely unable to raise the turn, which is where I can make some real money. A little more than half the deck leaves me pretty securely in the lead, and with that many callers between me and the bettor, raising the turn is what I really want.

[amirpc]

Yea that hand just made me start thinking about how much more I need to be doing that in my game. Sadly I would have jammed the flop, then the turn would have come a ten and I would have check/folded /images/graemlins/frown.gif I like this much better.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Yea that hand just made me start thinking about how much more I need to be doing that in my game. Sadly I would have jammed the flop, then the turn would have come a ten and I would have check/folded /images/graemlins/frown.gif I like this much better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Touché

[kendal14]

Lesson one million learned. I probably would have bet out on the flop, but I like your line and your reasoning MUCH better. Time to go make use of this new information /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[James282]

A good line against unknown opponents, but if the SB was slightly aggressive I would raise and pray that he three-bet to clear all the gutshotting idiots out.
-James

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
A good line against unknown opponents, but if the SB was slightly aggressive I would raise and pray that he three-bet to clear all the gutshotting idiots out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if SB three-bets the gutshots still have odds to draw. Unless by gutshotting idiots you meant the gutshots to the idiot end, which might fold, but it wouldn't really matter because the card that fills that gutshot also fills the open ender from the lone ten, which won't be folding.

Justin A

[James282]

Most of your opponents won't be paying attention to having the odds to draw or not. And if he can get any pairs like 7s or 8s to fold it's a huge advantage for him - not that these hands will necessarily fold.
-James

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of your opponents won't be paying attention to having the odds to draw or not. And if he can get any pairs like 7s or 8s to fold it's a huge advantage for him - not that these hands will necessarily fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this one of those hands where you only have to fold out a weak draw a very small % of the time to show a profit?

I also left out the very obvious Ace high hands that you want to fold, and that probably would to a three bet.

Justin A

[James282]

I believe so, yes. I think the Dude's line is very good given the Dude had no reads.
-James

[The Goober]

I just want to make sure that I'm clear on the concept, since this sort of play is something I think I need to do more. Since you are never going to be able to make anyone call two bets cold, this line can't really "protect" your hand - anyone who had the right odds to call SBs bet (on either the flop or the turn) will have even better odds to call your raise (assuming the SB doesn't 3-bet). My understanding of hand protection is to put other players to a choice of either folding or calling with incorrect odds.

The way I see it is that this is actually a case of passing on a small edge to take advantage of greater one later on, since your pot equity goes way up when a blank hits on the turn (since the draws now have only 1 card to come, not 2).

Am I thinking about this correctly?

[gaming_mouse]

Dude,

Are you folding to a river raise?

Thanks,
gm

"That's a good burger, Walter."
"Shut the f*ck up, Donny."

[Louie Landale]

Flop flat-call a routine no brainer. You are dead last and both gain more information by calling (nobody is going to check-raise you on the turn) AND disguise your hand. And you get to raise on the turn if its favorable.

Raising the flop hoping to get reraised is rediculous: if you get reraised your main problem will be wonding if you have zero, two, or five outs, not wondering if the gut draws get there.

Turn couldn't have turned out any better, unless everyone folded.

Gutsy bet on the end, primarily since its tough to get paid off by a lesser hand. But then I don't play online...

- Louie

[slavic]

The flop play is much like Mason's checking aces routine. You do have an additional problem in that you have 3 extra non flushing aces that you don't want to see, but your flat call should help you protect a larger fraction of the pot when you have more equity in it.

The bet on the end was just ballsy. With 4 callers I might just pass that bet if the other players play somewhat reasonably. Of course I have a problem in this game that I'll bet almost anything for value on a scary board and pay off like a slot machine against certain opponents. Some nights I eat the bear others the bear eats me.

I really need to start thinking about the value of the river a bit closer. At lower limits I've always bet just because they'll call with almost anything and on some nights anything.

[slavic]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude,

Are you folding to a river raise?

Thanks,
gm

"That's a good burger, Walter."
"Shut the f*ck up, Donny."

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite whatever TheDude may abide. I would not suggest routinely laying down an overpair for one bet on the end in a 25BB pot.

[jclin]

Eh, if they are willing to call anything, they probably would have bet on the river. No need for fancy play for someone who holds a 9, straight, or fh.

BTW, where is the game where you get 2 CCPF and the blinds on a 3-bet??? /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
3. Raising the flop leaves me likely unable to raise the turn, which is where I can make some real money. A little more than half the deck leaves me pretty securely in the lead, and with that many callers between me and the bettor, raising the turn is what I really want.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this reason best. Well played hand IMO.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude,

Are you folding to a river raise?


[/ QUOTE ]
While I do routinely lay down TPTK or even an overpair to river checkraises, I would call here. I expect a 9 to have bet the river, and the action on this hand was wierd enough a check-raise is suspect.

Despite the fact that I have to call a check-raise, I think not betting this river is a pretty big mistake.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
3. Raising the flop leaves me likely unable to raise the turn, which is where I can make some real money. A little more than half the deck leaves me pretty securely in the lead, and with that many callers between me and the bettor, raising the turn is what I really want.
I like this reason best.

[/ QUOTE ]
Me too. That was the biggest consideration, but the other factors made it even more clear what the correct line was.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
Gutsy bet on the end, primarily since its tough to get paid off by a lesser hand. But then I don't play online...

[/ QUOTE ]
Hands that will routinely pay off my river bet in Party's 15-30 game:
QQ, JJ, TT, A8s, A7s, 87s, 66, and frequently hands that make you go "WTF?". I watched a TT4 flop go 4 bets on the flop, 3 on the turn, and get called by 87 unimproved! Moral of the story: value bet, value bet, value bet against unknowns.