Bad Run At Party, Unlucky or not? $2/4 Multitables

[Folding Pete]

I am calling it a bad run. I can't call it a losing streak - I've won $158. Yes, but that is over 15,835 hands.

I would like to see if it is primarily a bad run or bad play.

I don't use pokertracker so these results are just collated & extrapolated from party's own daily session stats.

What makes me think it is a bad run is that I have averaged winning % of 5.29 over these 15,835 hands. I play in 10 handed $2/4 games with the biggest pot sizes and I will find a new game if the pot sizes drop below $30 (7.5 BB).

Now my style is, I think, tight aggressive. And tough... Maybe too tough. This is why I am thinking that it may be just a bad run. I generally pay people off. If I have top pair (usually vg or top kicker) I don't fold to a raise on the turn and pay off on the river. I almost never fold to a raise or check raise on the river heads up. In multi-handed pots I do fold more often to one raise but the majority I go to the river, unless board is super-scary (though I fold quite readily to two other players reraising). I think this may be a leak, (it certainly is when you ain't winning enough pots) which I may address in another post. Anyho I think I should be winning all the pots my cards merit.

I guess, on average, I should be winning 6% of hands played. This is a case where small differences really matter. The increase from 5.36% to 6.00% is 0.64%. 15835 hands x 0.64% x $30 = $3,040 more than I have now. Is my expectation of an average of 6% won realistic?

Hands Won 5.36%
Flops Seen 20.22% (not always 10 people sitting in)
If Flop Seen - 24.84% won

Any thoughts

Always be folding

Folding Pete

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess, on average, I should be winning 6% of hands played. This is a case where small differences really matter. The increase from 5.36% to 6.00% is 0.64%. 15835 hands x 0.64% x $30 = $3,040 more than I have now. Is my expectation of an average of 6% won realistic?

[/ QUOTE ]

how do you possibly come up with this figure??

[Folding Pete]

If you mean how did I come up with the 6% figure then I guess it is just the impression I get from looking at my previous daily results. It seems from previous results to be a likely average win rate. I don't think I've had an extended session were I have won less than 4% of hands dealt. Most sessions are in the 5% to 7% won range with 6% the most common.

[MicroBob]

Instead of worrying about your win-rate try just focusing on your game.

Fluctuations within the 15k hands range are not THAT unusual.

you posted a rather simple description of what hands you stay in with while not really mentioning position or opponent playing style or anything else and it makes me wonder if your post-flop approach might be too simplistic.

If you are ALWAYS paying off with the loser then this isn't good.
If you aren't raising for value (or to knock-out opponents) with the possible winner or with a good draw or whenever you should be raising then this a problem too.

Assume you have read and are continuing to read SSHE.
If not....then correct this post-haste.

Post-flop play is not simple sometimes....so post some hands in the appropriate strategic forum (the SS forum in your case) to see if you should have been staying in with some of these...and/or letting go with some of these.


It seems to me you might not be calling down ENOUGH.
My win-hand percentage is usually 7-7.5%.

It's 4-5% in a bad session....and sometimes as high as 13% or so.

If you had pokertracker then you could see what your numbers are for:
Went to Showdown
and
Win $$ at Showdown

I think that 30 and 55 are reasonable numbers for these stats.


you should seriously consider getting poker-tracker.
It is one of the few items out there that is EASILY well worth the money.
As I have stated before....if it cost 3x as much, yet only did one-third of what it does...I would STILL think it is a good value (and I was saying this before the advent of data-mining...and I think I even said this before you could export the stats into the party-notes).


Additionally...your Win$ when see flop of 24 seems pretty low to me.
33% seems about right to me (yes/no/maybe?? help me out on this one gang). I wonder if you are giving up to easily to those raises and aren't chasing your draws like you should be.

In other words.....just based on the low win% and low W%WSF I am GUESSING (and it's only a guess....can't say for certain) that you post-flop play might be too weak-tight and that you should be making adjustments.

Again, the best way to do this is to read SSHE....get pokertracker.....and read some hand-histories in the SS forum (as well as posting one or two of your own...maybe a hand where you folded but weren't positive whether you should have).

If you read some of the HH's in SS you should see some hands over there where the player stayed with seemingly very little...but did so CORRECTLY because they had the appropriate pot-odds to do so.
Check it out. It's a great education and a REAL eye-opener.

good luck.

[Bytestream]

You are playing too tight for Party 2/4.

[Folding Pete]

Thanks for the great advice MicroBob. I don't have pokertracker but I will get it, hope my pc can handle it. I haven't been checking out SSHE for a long time but it looks on the money.

It is difficult to give a brief explanation of my postflop strategy. I think that is why it may appear too simplistic. I do make a lot of crying calls and lately I have been doing a lot of crying. I am maybe slightly too tight but that is because I doubt my ability to outplay looser opponents post flop were they are both looser and more aggressive than me. For example if I have bet or raised on the flop with top pair I will almost never raise on the turn if bet into, (known maniacs, serial bluffers excepted). I don't think I can get a better hand to fold and if I am behind I am putting more money with the worst of it or risking a reraise that I won't fold too.

Given your statistics I think I am having a bad run. I'm just not getting the cards, hands played % is down even for me, or hitting the flops, & I need to sharpen up on my play.

Always be folding

Folding Pete

[kendal14]

First off, I do think pokertracker is a must. The statistics that you mention that Party keeps are nice, but way too simplistic if you are serious about improving your game and evaluating your play in certain situations.

From the statistics you have posted, you seems to be a very tight-passive-passive player. It may be because you could only give a very broad overview of your post flop play, but you didn't mention pot-odds at all as part of your consideration. Especially with one or two raisers, if you have top pair with various draws (OESD, Backdoor, etc.) it is sometime imperative that you call or even raise depending on the strength of your cards.

Definitely give SSHE a read once, and then once again. At small stakes games like 2/4 you need to be able to get the most value of your hands. I don't doubt that you have had a bad run, but it seems like a good time to evaluate your post flop play.

And absolutely go to the Small Stakes forum and take a look at hand history posts and pay attention to the advice and analysis. I learn something new all the time.

Hope that helps.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess, on average, I should be winning 6% of hands played.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've won over 6% of the last 10K hands at 2/4, and my winrate is 0.3 BB/100.

So I don't think the # of pots won necessarily tells you that much. I've won lots of small pots and lost big ones during this run.

[Alobar]

Go buy poker tracker, no one can tell you anything about your play based on the vague information you have given.

I suspect tho that since you don't have pokertracker, dont understand why you need poker tracker (else you would have it by now), and think that % pot won is the most relative statistic, you are prolly at best not beating the game for anything all that high (if you are beating it).

Over that number of hands, it wouldnt be uncommon for even a 2 or 3bb/100 player to have a run like that.

Quit stressing about your win rate, and work on your game. Since its obvious you care about your game (you are posting here) go buy poker tracker!!!