A Theory of Poker Theories

[Zeno]

I posted my General Poker Theory (working model) in the General Poker Theory Forum. Take a look and if you want to response, please do so here in the Other Other Topics Forum under this thread. I want some input from the sage and erudite monsters that roam the outer regions of 2+2. The people that post in the General Poker Theory Forum are delusional.

And no, I will not provide the link – if you are so lax and lazy that you can’t click a few times on the old mouse or key a few strokes then I view your input to be highly suspect.

-Zeno

[AngryCola]

I completely disagree with your "theory". Basically, it's redundant and partially untrue.

[ QUOTE ]
The only people (or institutions) that make money at poker are those that make a living off of poker players that believe they can make a living off of playing poker. The rest is superfluous.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can make a lot of money from people that aren't trying to play for a living, plain and simple. Not everyone who plays is trying to make a living or thinking about going "pro". There are a fair number of people out there that do it "just for fun". Of course they want to win, but they are mostly there for the fun of it.

This fact voids the whole "theory".

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
I completely disagree with your "theory". Basically, it's redundant and partially untrue.


[/ QUOTE ]

Working theories usually are. That's the point.

Now your point about this- 'they play for fun part'. This is a threadbare poker platitude and only partially true, if at all. I have spent a number of years at poker tables. I'd estimate that perhaps 1% are having 'fun' or consistently enjoying themselves. Even most that win are not happy about it. So we have a fundamental disagreement. Even so, I plan on working on this and revising it to meet your objection.

-Zeno

[AngryCola]

What percentage of poker players are actually trying to make a living from playing?

It's certainly not the majority. Your theory completely discounts all the people who play without the intention of "making a living" from poker as "superfluous". I have to say, that group makes up a good chunk of the players out there.

I appreciate that you don't agree with my opinion, but I believe the whole basis of the theory to be fundamentally unsound.

[BusterStacks]

Gonna have to go with AngryCola on this one, most players are not playing because they think it is profitable.

[theBruiser500]

Zeno, you are really weird. What is the point of your theory anyway?

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the point of your theory anyway?


[/ QUOTE ]

Read the title of my post.

By the way, I've always been 'weird'.

My theory needs some reworking. However, my theory of theories is very sound indeed. More on that later.

When the hell are you going to Europe?

-Zeno

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
I appreciate that you don't agree with my opinion, but I believe the whole basis of the theory to be fundamentally unsound.

[/ QUOTE ]


Can the theory be fixed?

-Zeno

[AngryCola]

Probably...

In fact, I already know the way to fix it.

The point is...

What's the point?

It isn't like you are the first person to say some of the things you are talking about. If anything, this is a slightly watered down version of the FTOP.

I'm not trying to be rude, I just don't understand what you are trying to accomplish. If you are trying to become the first person to state such thoughts in print, it's a little late.

[AngryCola]

I'm also starting to see that this is apparently some sort of dig directed at people who make money playing and/or writing about poker.

[Zeno]

"Being first" is neither a concern nor something that ever occurs to me at all.

The FTOP does not take into account the most important part of poker - that it is a hoax, a fraud, and a bamboozlement - and that that is accomplished, mainly, by physiological means - Forever playing on the perennial foolishness of mankind.

But perhaps you are correct – What’s the point. Perhaps, there is no point at all to this suppose theory of mine. Just another experiment that went bad.

You were not rude - I appreicated your excellent responses - Thank You.

-Zeno

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Gonna have to go with AngryCola on this one, most players are not playing because they think it is profitable.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think I agree with what you're trying to get at, but I disagree with the way you said it. I would estimate that over 90% of poker players think they are good enough to beat the game, and expect to show a profit if and when they do play.

Justin A

[gavrilo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd estimate that perhaps 1% are having 'fun' or consistently enjoying themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like opinion. I don't know where you play, but there is usually at least one guy at the table who doesn't care about winning or losing and is just having a good time.

I've sat at tables before where I think I was the only person actually trying to win.

I think your theory (or atleast the above quote) would grow closer to "true" as you escalate in limits towards the highest, but where the majority are is IMO false.

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm also starting to see that this is apparently some sort of dig directed at people who make money playing and/or writing about poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first part of your statement is an incorrect conjecture. I have a great deal of respect for most people that can and do make a living out of playing poker (some are jerks but that is true of any profession).

The writing about poker is something I am unsure of in some respects, at least for some authors or writers of poker articles in magazines. But again, this is something that is in no way limited to 'poker writers'. There are frauds in every profession and human endeavor.

-Zeno

[Phat Mack]

[ QUOTE ]
The only people (or institutions) that make money at poker are those that make a living off of poker players that believe they can make a living off of playing poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I regret to say that I agree with this completely...if I understand it correctly. Of course, the stuff I understand correctly is minimal. But, to give some examples of what I think you are saying:

A lot of players think that they will be at a poker table, and that a millionaire whale will come along and give them all his money. But that's not what happens when the whale sits down. Other players are going to randomly knock off pieces of his stack. And many of these "other" players will consider themselves "professionals." If you want the money, you won't get it from the whale, you have to take it from these guys. The good news is that it is not hard to do; they all play formulaically and they won't see you coming if you hide in the 1 seat.

A second example: While you are hiding in the 1 seat, the rake never ends.

[Zeno]

Thanks for your input Phat.

If I were more serious about this endeavor a bit of tweeking may make my theroy iron clad. But the problem with theories is that they are usually supplanted by some other better theory. Ususally by some guy in seat #1.

Rake is King.

By the way, the following was also part of the orginial theroy as presented in the post the General Theory Forum.

[ QUOTE ]
Another way of saying the above is the following simple statement:

Poker is a continual self-perpetuating hoax, and most that engage in it never realize it.


[/ QUOTE ]

-Zeno

[BradleyT]

When I was a fish with a decent job I would blow $300-500 a week at $2-5 spread limit HE - and it was a LOT of fun getting drunk and playing poker.

There's plenty of old me's out there.

[razor]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I agree with what you're trying to get at, but I disagree with the way you said it. I would estimate that over 90% of poker players think they are good enough to beat the game, and expect to show a profit if and when they do play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems about right in my experience... of course, what they think rarely matches the truth.

[AngryCola]

Right, but that still has little to do with the theory itself.

The theory doesn't state that these people believe they can beat the games, it states that they are actually trying to make a living from playing poker.

[Zeno]

Good point AngryCola. Thanks.

-Zeno

[Phat Mack]

Another way of saying the above is the following simple statement:

Poker is a continual self-perpetuating hoax, and most that engage in it never realize it.

I hope Walter Sobchak isn't around to read this, but perhaps you've transcended poker and are approaching a general theory of Life itself.