A hand from last night

Hello,


It's the final table of a PLHE tournament. Nine players remain, 5 will be paid, real money in the top 3 places as usual.


So far at the final (20 hands or so) play has been very tight indeed: raise and take it. Everyone has about the same stack, 7 or 8k, barring two chip leaders with about double that. Blinds are 300-600 and about to rise to 400-800. I have 7200.


Last hand I had the button. The cutoff raised to 2100 and was called by the small blind. The flop brought an ace, they checked it down and cutoff won with 44 to SB's KQ. This is the first time I've seen the SB play.


So here I am in the cutoff. I get 55. It's folded to me, so I decide to go for a steal. I make it 2100. Same player as last time, now on the button, calls again. He has a similar stack to mine. The blinds fold.


Flop comes 228. What is your play?


Guy.

Time to go all in.

Short of a set, this is about the best flop you could hope for. Move in to make him fold his overcards. If he has a higher PP or an 8, so be it. With T5100 in the pot, any other play would be a huge mistake.


cu


Ignatius

This is a good flop for you move all in.

Guy,


Since, I don't know if you gain anything from moving up to the next payout, or if you really need to win a hand, so I have two answers.


If you are interesting in moving up the payscale and there is a good chance that you might be able to with the amount of chips you have left, try and check it down to the river. I only suggest this because you have to evaluate how likely the other players will go broke before you do. Futhermore, it appears that this player might be willing to check it down with you from previous actions.


But, if you are the shortest stack after making that preflop raise and you think everyone is trying to outlast you, move the rest of your chips in. Normally, when the flop comes with three cards your opponent has approximately a 33% chance of hitting one of his cards, in this case the flop most likely didn't help him at all with a pair of deuces and no draws, so you have to base your play on what you thought he called you will. From your description this player will probably have overcards or a pair up to jacks. I believe you are the favorite at this point because it is more likely he has overcards to your pair.


Good Luck


Mark

Not to many hands are going to beat you here. Only 88 and 99 maybe 1010. Why? Because I doubt he would have let you see the flop without a re-raise with JJ-KK. He could have AA.


There is a BIG problem with checking it down. If he hits his card on the turn or river you lose either 1) a big pot, or 2) your whole stack. If he has overcards you really want him to fold if you bet, but if he calls it is ok also.


The alternative is to check here, and move in on the turn if he checks again, then he really cant call with overs.

Still I think you have to move in here. If I had KK or AA I would check here, but not with 55. Anything he catches will beat you.

Hi,


Thank you all for your responses. Mark, I'm not sure what you meant about not knowing whether I'd gain from moving up the payscale or if I needed to win a hand - didn't I give enough info in the original post? What more should I say in future?


Anyhow, as most of you suggested, I moved in, thinking he would most likely be holding overcards. He called in a flash and turned over pocket kings. History does not relate who won the pot ;-)


Oh, okay, he won it.


I got some funny looks from players who know me fairly well, so I began to doubt my play of moving in. I feel reassured now! Many thanks.


Cheers,


Guy.

You were trapped by pocket kings, but you definitely made the appropriate play post-flop. Raising with the 55 originally may have been borderline, depending on how quickly the blinds were being raised, but I think even that in the situation that you described makes the most sense.


Why try to squeak into 5th?

Guy,


You said that they paid 5 places. What's the prize money? Is it worth surviving to 5th? Plus, with the blinds rising other players will feel like they have to play something too. This could even give you a chance to move up further.


This is why I gave you two answers. Sometimes, you may want to backoff and just check it down to survive, and put the rest of your money in when the blinds are higher, and you may even win a bigger pot. Furthermore, from your description of your opponent it appears that he is not likely to bet unless he makes something or has something.


Lastly, I just wanted to point out that everyone had the same amount of chips except for the two chip leaders. Why not let others gamble first and let them bust out?


Good Luck


Mark

Mark,


I'm with you now. Thanks for clearing up what you meant. The 5th place money wasn't anything to get excited about: double the buy-in. 4th was about 3xbuy-in and then there was a big jump to 3rd.


It seemed as though everyone was trying to hang on, nobody wanting to play a pot. With (just under) average chips, I thought I ought to be looking for steals at the very least; especially since the extremely tight play might let me steal more than normal. Do you agree with that approach?


Thanks again to everyone who's responded. I really appreciate it.


Cheers,


Guy.

Guy,


"...I thought I ought to be looking for steals at the very least; especially since the extremely tight play might let me steal more than normal. Do you agree with that approach?"


Yes.


If you raise in a situation where you only plan on stealing, but did not plan on getting called, know exactly what you are going to do against those opponents ahead of time based on what you think your opponent thinks of you, and what your opponent will do with a flop that does not help either of you, or looks scary. From my experience, most opponents will not lay down aces or kings.


Basically, since players are trying to survive to fifth place, you will not be called by a worse hand from a tight opponent, until their stack gets smaller where their survival is threatened. So, when you make this decision to commit, you will be up against pairs from AA to JJ, and probably AK and AQ. If they will call you with those pairs thats 24 combinations of pairs and 32 combinations of AK and AQ when you have a small pair. So, on the flop, if you don't see an ace, king, or queen you usually are in pretty good shape. With the hands that I gave you there is a 43% chance that your opponent has a pair and a 57% chance that he has AK or AQ. But, if your opponent will not make that play with AQ, you should probably consider checking it down and folding to a bet, especially if he is so tight that he has to hit one of his cards before he will commit chips. So, it is important to figure out how tight your opponent really is in order to figure your chances. Lastly, opponents that tighten up when they get near the money and are in survival mode do not bluff when they call or bet their hands.


Don't forget, one of the reasons to target tight opponents behind you with a steal raise, is that you know they are calling you with a real hand, and you can get away from whatever garbage you're trying to steal with.


Although in this situation you still had enough chips to back off, but your opponent did not play it the typical way, probably because he thought you were stealing, and decided to trap you if you flopped something.


Good Luck


Mark