Mmm...fun KK hand.

[Entity]

Comments from the peanut gallery? BB is a LAG.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 (poster) calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (22.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 28.25 BB

[Brain]

Peanut gallery checking in.

Crap. I think this is a safe fold, but I'm gonna be really pissed if I folded the winner.

[kenberman]

BB calling 2 cold on the flop, then leading out the turn, looks suspicious to me, LAG or not.
I'd like to think I fold after the 3 bet on the turn, unless my read on him is really maniac.

[toss]

You folded on the river with 22.25 BB in the pot after already calling a bet on the river.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
You folded on the river with 22.25 BB in the pot after already calling a bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Make that a 28.25 BB pot. And while yes, everything MP2 did in this hand suggests he made a flush, I wouldn't fold this river.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
You folded on the river with 22.25 BB in the pot after already calling a bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So?

[toss]

I guess he really has a good read then.

[ErrantNight]

are you 1 in 28.25 times sure?

still, i'm going to go ahead and agree on this one.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
theres three kinds of people in this world. those who can count, and those who can't.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you can fold here.

[ccwhoelse?]

what stops you from capping on the turn.

IMO:

if you think BB is a LAG, then you should cap.
if you think BB has a 5, then you should fold.

this is what ken wrote i think too.

i would make the other players pay the maximum to see the next card.

this hand is similar to my AA hand i recently posted.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
BB calling 2 cold on the flop, then leading out the turn, looks suspicious to me, LAG or not.
I'd like to think I fold after the 3 bet on the turn, unless my read on him is really maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I might've been able to fold, but I think he's capable of pulling this play off with other cards than a 5. He'd play this way with AQ and possibly even KQ, I think.

I don't think the river fold is really debatable here at all. I'm not good here close to 1 in 28. I'm really wondering if calling down is better than raising the turn, though.

Rob

[btspider]

a turn fold would be bad.. you have odds to hit your set.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
a turn fold would be bad.. you have odds to hit your set.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not quite, but probably close with implied odds (getting 21.15:1 if it's not capped behind me).

I really didn't like this hand, becaues I felt like I got married to my hand.

Rob

[btspider]

right, but i think it will be quite rare that MP2 cold-calls and then caps. if one of the other guys was still to act, that's a different story.

in general, i try to avoid turn raises that still require me to call a 3-bet.. b/c i know i'll usually feel the need to pay off that one extra river bet just in case. folding when you know you have to put in 2 more bets is much easier.

there's no shame in calling down the turn bet. on the flop you had a chance to fold a gutshot from MP2.. so he likely has something you don't mind a call from or is drawing with more than sufficient odds.

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
a turn fold would be bad.. you have odds to hit your set.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point, and folding to the 3 bet is probably wrong.

But when BB leads out the turn, Entity is only getting 11-1. Now, BB could easily have something like top pair, and figure that board pairing didn't help anyone. It's a tough decision. I have to think, though, that Entity's Pot Equity is not great in this spot. If BB has a 5, Entity has 2 outs. If UTG or MP2 are on a draw, a lot of river cards look bad. He may be behind already.

I think it's a tough laydown at 11-1. Entity can't anticipate the action behind me that will give him odds to draw to his 2 outs, and my guess is that his Pot Equity is worse than you would think.

That advice may be weak/tight, so flame away.

[btspider]

sorry, to clarify i meant folding to the 3-bet would be wrong, not the first bet. about the first bet to him:

since the pot is laying about 11:1 when its to Entity the first time, he has roughly half those odds (22:1) just from the possibility of rivering a set. so he only needs to be good 22:1 times to make the first call worthwhile. he definitely shouldn't fold.

[ccwhoelse?]

i changed my mind like ken too.

btspider is right about having the odds to improve after the 3-bet.

i'd still raise the 1st BB on the turn believing i'm ahead. (the problem i have with calling the 1st bet on the turn is that: i don't know where i stand. i lose money if i'm ahead. and i let other draw to beat me cheaply.)

i would cap the turn only if BB was a maniac.

if he's not a maniac, his 3-bet would make me fairly certain i'm behind. i'd have the odds to call. (if i don't have the odds to call, i'd fold to the turn 3-bet)

if I don't improve on the river - like in this hand though, i would fold to the BB's 1st bet, not MP2's raise.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
if I don't improve on the river - like in this hand though, i would fold to the BB's 1st bet, not MP2's raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even after BB's 3-bet on the turn, I think I'm still ahead here 5% of the time.

Then it gets raised when a draw-completing card comes. Now I'm not good, not even 1% of the time.

Rob

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
Even after BB's 3-bet on the turn, I think I'm still ahead here 5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

then why don't you cap the turn?

-------------------------------------

OR - since you don't close the betting on the river AND a draw completing card comes, your hand might need to be better more than 5% of the time.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even after BB's 3-bet on the turn, I think I'm still ahead here 5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

then why don't you cap the turn?

-------------------------------------

OR - since you don't close the betting on the river AND a draw completing card comes, your hand might need to be better more than 5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
My hand would have to be good 55% of the time to cap the turn, and it isn't good that often. Though a draw completing card comes on the river, more often than not the player behind me isn't on a draw. I need to be good less than 5% (24.25:1) of the time, and I'm probably good 10% of the time on this river card.

Does that make sense?

Rob

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
My hand would have to be good 55% of the time to cap the turn, and it isn't good that often. Though a draw completing card comes on the river, more often than not the player behind me isn't on a draw. I need to be good less than 5% (24.25:1) of the time, and I'm probably good 10% of the time on this river card.


[/ QUOTE ]

i get the cap turning part.

but...why wouldn't the player behind you not be on a draw. it's obviously better to play a draw from late position.

if you were closing the action - you'd need to be good less than 5% of the time (24.25:1)

but you aren't closing the action.

how do you figure that you are ahead 10% of the time?

i guess it is a judgement call on how often BB's 3-bet means he has you beat.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My hand would have to be good 55% of the time to cap the turn, and it isn't good that often. Though a draw completing card comes on the river, more often than not the player behind me isn't on a draw. I need to be good less than 5% (24.25:1) of the time, and I'm probably good 10% of the time on this river card.


[/ QUOTE ]

i get the cap turning part.

but...why wouldn't the player behind you not be on a draw. it's obviously better to play a draw from late position.

if you were closing the action - you'd need to be good less than 5% of the time (24.25:1)

but you aren't closing the action.

how do you figure that you are ahead 10% of the time?

i guess it is a judgement call on how often BB's 3-bet means he has you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
You can't go around assuming draws are out there because a potential draw came in. Yes, it's possible that he made his flush. It's also possible that he's fond of his pair of Q's, or his pair of T's. Folding to the first bet here would be pretty bad.

Rob

[ccwhoelse?]

i see your point. thanks.

[papawawa]

I think you folded a little late here man, probably should've when 3-bet on the turn. BB betting the turn is very suspicious. If hes smart, he probably made trip 5's knowing you'd raise anyone and everyone (is he a thinking player?). If he's not, and your read is correct, I think capping the turn is fine here (you're getting nice odds) in case he's making a foolish bluff. Unfortunately, I don't see him 3betting into such a big field w/o a big hand. Nice save on the end tho, MP2 definetly had that 5 or a flush.

[meep_42]

With MP2 waking up into 3 people on the river after cold-calling all hand, the fold is standard against a passive or reasonable player. (A bluff here will almost never fold both opponents)

-d

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you folded a little late here man, probably should've when 3-bet on the turn. BB betting the turn is very suspicious. If hes smart, he probably made trip 5's knowing you'd raise anyone and everyone (is he a thinking player?). If he's not, and your read is correct, I think capping the turn is fine here (you're getting nice odds) in case he's making a foolish bluff. Unfortunately, I don't see him 3betting into such a big field w/o a big hand. Nice save on the end tho, MP2 definetly had that 5 or a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I can't fold to the 3-bet because A) I've got odds to spike my set and B) there's still a reasonable (though small) chance that I'm ahead.

Rob

[btspider]

nt

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
nt

[/ QUOTE ]
MP2 had K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the really weakly played flush, and BB had 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. I finished way out of first place on this one.

Rob

[DeathDonkey]

I would have just called the turn. You now beat QT, but are way behind a 5, and if he doesn't have you beat you wouldn't mind him doing the betting for you with the others calling. No one is folding a good draw on the turn so its not going to matter much, I don't think your good when he leads the turn but its just one of those cards. I also think you can fold to the river bet but I would pay it off for sanity. Good fold the last time around, anyone who calls there should have bought a soda with that dollar.

-DeathDonkey

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
No one is folding a good draw on the turn so its not going to matter much

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that is incorrect thinking. i remember reading somewhere in TOP or HEFAP that you should always charge draws regardless of whether they have the odds to draw or not.