Bet the turn?

[Jaran]

So, I'm taking a study break to play a little poker, and end up at a table with meep. (Nice playing w/you, sucks about the KK hand). He wasn't involved in this hand, but made a comment about the turn play afterward, so I thought I would post it and see what you guys thought. UTG+1 has seemed like a typical party player, a little too loose, a little too passive, but not awful. UTG+2 is even more loose, but decent postflop. This is the first hand I've seen button play, so no real read. SB limped 2 hands before UTG w/AKs.

-Jaran


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, Button 3-bets, SB calls, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (12 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero...

[btspider]

i don't see you winning without improving here, so I see no value in the turn bet.

do you always cap AKo PF out of position against 2 separate raisers?

[Jaran]

[ QUOTE ]
do you always cap AKo PF out of position against 2 separate raisers?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not always, but I decided I really wanted to take control of the hand. I go back and forth on this cap, sometimes by how I'm feeling, sometimes by what the table dictates.

-Jaran

[Frank A. Adrian]

The choice is between betting and trying for a check raise, because both your odds and PE are right. Three other players in the pot are enticing for the CR and, though they know you have big cards (from your preflop cap), they don't know the suits (though they can infer a 50-50 chance that you have at least one diamond and that one's going to be big). Very few will be foolish enough to bet into that flop, given that info, though some will go ahead and call one bet, assuming you're trying to protect a high pair offsuit hand or waiting for the last card. Having the hand checked around would lose more than the check raise would gain. I'd bet out.

[btspider]

how much equity do you think Hero has here? the current pot size has no effect on Hero's decision to pump the pot. he needs immediate equity on the bets going in on this street to make them +EV.

Hero is either check-calling or bet-calling. a check-raise would be terrible here.

[Brain]

I think I want to see that river diamond as cheaply as possible. I don't think I'd enjoy getting raised (and possibly 3-bet) after I led out.

[Brain]

I don't need a diamond in my hand to bet that flop.

No chance am I C/Ring that turn.

[mr pink]

i think this is a pretty easy check/call. it's hard to think you're ahead here and i'd want to see the river as cheap as possible.

[Shillx]

Check/calling the turn will probably kill your river action here. If you bet the turn and just get called, you could probably pull off a river check/raise if you catch a diamond. It would just suck to bet and get raised here because you will have to bet a river diamond in all likelyhood.

Brad

[Frank A. Adrian]

Oops! My bad. You're right you don't consider a check-raise here. What can I say! I was blinded by the beautiful diamond nut flush draw. I conceed /images/graemlins/blush.gif.

[kenberman]

it's close, b/c I give you 12-15 clean outs to win the pot (the 3 A's, maybe the 3 K's, and the other 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif), but you need to improve.

I figure your pot equity to be 26-32%%. if you lead out and get 3 callers (ideal) you've contributed 25% of the money. If you lead out and get raised by UTG+1, you may end up putting in half the money. ouch.

I say check/call.

[Redd]

Hero has the nut-flush draw and two overcards that he may be able to protect with a raise. Doesn't SSHE stress the importance of protecting your hand/buying outs in the event that you spike a pair, especially in this large of a pot? It seems possible that the other PFRs would put Hero on a made flush and fold..

Redd

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't SSHE stress the importance of protecting your hand/buying outs in the event that you spike a pair, especially in this large of a pot?

[/ QUOTE ]
yes, but I don't think you are buying any outs here. if an A hits, you won't be out-kicked - ditto if a K hits. this may be the case if you held a lower kicker than a K.

[Frank A. Adrian]

I really only have 5 other outs besides the diamonds (you're counting the Kd twice, otherwise). If I'm re-raised, I either put more money in or I fold. And I really can't put in more money, at least not profitably. So by check raising I potentially destroy my chance at winning a large pot (if I want not to fight the odds) to gain one or two more bets and perhaps to minimally increase my PE. This is not a smart move, especially when check-call gives a simple +EV play. With the CR, I was being too clever by half. Witness fancy play syndrome in action. I was wrong about the CR.

[Jaran]

I checked for a couple of reasons. First off, I currently only have A high. Secondly, as has been stated, I really want to see the river as cheaply as possible. Finally, I have awful position (really awful). The rest of the turn went:
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Button bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Now onto the river, which is a lovely K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ( /images/graemlins/grin.gif ). How do you play this? Do you bet out, go for a c/r, c/c, hoping for overcalls?

-Jaran

[Shillx]

Bet. If you had bet the turn, you could probably pull off a sweet check/raise. Don't have that luxury now, so take what you can get.

Shill

[Brain]

I check, afraid of Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I lead out and 3-bet, if given the chance. I'm always afraid of it getting checked through here.

[Jaran]

So, obviously the river was much less exciting than the turn. I decided to bet out. Like Shill said, if I had bet the turn (which I had no reason to), then I could have c/r'ed the river. UTG+2 folded, button called, and I took down a nice pot over his Q high flush (QQ).

-Jaran

[Shillx]

That was the only upside to betting the turn. Jaran plays Pot Limit HE g00t!

[meep_42]

I was mostly kidding about the turn bet -- but you're still getting odds to call 2 cold to make the flush on the river. That got me thinking that you could disguise your hand a little (as you saw me call it as the cards were flipped /images/graemlins/wink.gif ).

I also think that a fourth diamond kills your river action -- but, like someone above said, I think you have plenty of outs to win this thing, it seemed a lot like the KJ hand on Ed's hand quiz (only more opponents). Bet/call would be my line, then try not to whiff on the c/r on the river.

Well, i'm not saying i'd actually do it, but that's what I was thinking.

(and, I had to call the river raise with the set of kings, yes? :P )

-d

[Jaran]

[ QUOTE ]
I was mostly kidding about the turn bet -- but you're still getting odds to call 2 cold to make the flush on the river. That got me thinking that you could disguise your hand a little (as you saw me call it as the cards were flipped /images/graemlins/wink.gif ).

I also think that a fourth diamond kills your river action -- but, like someone above said, I think you have plenty of outs to win this thing, it seemed a lot like the KJ hand on Ed's hand quiz (only more opponents). Bet/call would be my line, then try not to whiff on the c/r on the river.

Well, i'm not saying i'd actually do it, but that's what I was thinking.

(and, I had to call the river raise with the set of kings, yes? :P )

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your line if I'm in mp/lp. I really hate my position here. (and yes, you had to call the river bet /images/graemlins/tongue.gif )

-Jaran