Big (Stupid?) Laydown

[partypokerer]

Opponent in this hand is 60vpip/0pfr with a 0.2 postflop aggression factor

Im in BB with AdKh
5 handed 5/10 partypoker 6max
Preflop: limped to SB who raises,i 3bet, 1 fold, rest call ,SB caps, all call

Flop: 8h 6h Qh
SB checks, I bet 1 fold, passive player calls

Turn: 10h
SB checks, I bet, passive player raises, SB folds, I fold

I thought it was a good fold until i remembered the 13-1 odds i was getting. Would anyone make this fold given how passive he is?

[Drunken Monkey]

Really this is one that unless you are sure about your opponent you should keep it. There is one card that can beat you. Depending upon how passive the guy is is how you gauge this laydown. Will he only raise with the ace? Or will he raise with any heart?

I play with a passive player who only raises with the best of it (usually top two pair or better), but I see him raising practically with any heart in this situation. And I could see the player I play with even betting the straight despite the hearts.

If this were me I would just call down, but I have a feeling that I play some of my hands like these too weak.

After SB folds the chances that the ace is out there is (2/23) (1/46 OR+ 1/46). But if you have a solid read on the guy only raising with the nuts then I would say that the correct play would be to fold. This has to almost be a sure thing in my mind though in order for me to fold.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
There is one card that can beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]

J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

and

9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

also beats him.

[DrGutshot]

I always include how many hands my vpip/pfr/pf aggro is based on. (if this is based off of anything less than 300 hands, I would always call this down without thinking). Then again, I'd probably call it down anyways because I suck.



Also - if he is so passive, why on earth would he be raising PF with those hands? I'd pray for a moronically played weakerflush or set.

-DrG

[Danenania]

Yeah just depends on how many hands your stats are based on. If your sample size is relatively large then a fold seems fine.

[DrGutshot]

again - even if your sample size is large - why would he be raising preflop with the hands you lose to here?

-DrG

[partypokerer]

It was the me and the SB doing the pf raising he just called along. Sorry if it wasn't clear. The vpip etc were based on just over 100 hands(too low?) and im pretty sure this is the first time ive seen him raise.

[Jeff W]

I calldown getting 7:1 effective odds. Even seemingly passive players get out of line often enough to make this worthwhile. If my read was ironclad, I could fold this.

[EliteNinja]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought it was a good fold until i remembered the 13-1 odds i was getting. Would anyone make this fold given how passive he is?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you more than 92.86% sure that you're beat?
If you are, fold. If you are not, call.

[Jeff W]

He must be 87.5% sure because he must call a river bet.

The "effective" pot=13 BB+1 BB on river from opponent
He has to pay 2 BB to see showdown. 1 on turn, 1 on river.

His effective odds are 14:2 or 7:1 effective odds. If he wins 1/8 times or 12.5%, he breaks even.

[spydog]

Am I correct that you layed down the 2nd nut flush??? I never do this unless I had 500 hands on someone. My read would have to be ironclad. Just call it down.

[krishanleong]

It just seems like this is a very costly laydown. You only have to be wrong once in a great many times to make this fold -EV. When playing 2/4 I was once told that I shouldn't ever laydown an overpair KK on a uncoordinated board because I fear AA. I feel like even with the read, you can't be sure enough. Look for other places to lay down based on your read. Not with second nut flush in a large pot.

Krishan

[William Jockusch]

I think your are probably 75-80% likely to be behind here. But that's not enough reason to fold, so you should have called it down.

[Sarge85]

There's pretty much no way I'm folding this hand for one bet.

First remove SB - he's done nothing but check the whole way, including the river. If he hand a lone Heart, it seems odd he would risk having it check through since four hearts would look bad to you, and he can't risk you not beting there fore missing a CR if he had a heart.

Second - you've been betting the whole way which would be consisent with top pair - Which doesn't necessairly mean you have any sort of heart and I would reckon, your probably know for being aggressive and the players probably think you'll bet here regardless of you holding a heart or not.

Third with the above two facts above, ANY heart would do for a raise there. PLUS you have the second nut.

If anything I'd throw in a re-raise.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif