Streaks spreadsheet

[Homer]

Does anyone want this?

Basically, it's an Excel spreadsheet that is used to show what sort of swings you are likely to experience over different time intervals.

All you need to do is enter:

- EV/table-hr
- SD/table-hr
- Hands/table-hr
- Tables played at a time

Then you click the "Refresh Data" button and a Monte Carlo simulation is done, from which a bunch of information is displayed (see screenshots below).

If there is interest, and anyone would be willing to host the file, that would be cool.

http://img5.exs.cx/img5/8694/streaks1.jpg
http://img114.exs.cx/img114/4162/i1lstreaks100hrs.jpg
http://img114.exs.cx/img114/6858/e7ostreaks250hrs.jpg
http://img114.exs.cx/img114/2024/n2hstreaks500hrs.jpg
http://img114.exs.cx/img114/8770/a1lstreaks1000hrs.jpg
http://img114.exs.cx/img114/5474/j8qstreaks2000hrs.jpg
http://img106.exs.cx/img106/7296/g3gstreaks5000hrs.jpg
http://img106.exs.cx/img106/8546/e1lstreaks10000hrs.jpg

-- Homer

[AncientPC]

Yes please. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[tyfromm]

After seeing the second chart (250 hours), I must conclude that you are merely a breakeven player.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
After seeing the second chart (250 hours), I must conclude that you are merely a breakeven player.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is a joke, it's genius.

If not, I'll just say that this is a simulation of a winning player's (2 BB/table-hr) roller coaster ride.

[illunious]

That's awsome, I want it, hope you can find someone to host it.

[Equal]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After seeing the second chart (250 hours), I must conclude that you are merely a breakeven player.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is a joke, it's genius.

If not, I'll just say that this is a simulation of a winning player's (2 BB/table-hr) roller coaster ride.

[/ QUOTE ]

The joke is genius! I must say I leaked some urinal fluid when I read it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Anyway, thanks for posting this Homer.

[mmbt0ne]

I'll put it up.

mmbt0ne@hotmail.com

[Sarge85]

Homer,

Are you using this in conjunction with PT to get your win rates and SD?

I have your "orginal" spreadsheet that you posted quite a while back. I've tweaked it a bit to fit my needs.

However, what I would like to do is actually do some sort of overlay of what my true results are (based on the same SD and Win Rate) and see it against what it could be based on your spreadsheet.

What I haven't been able to extroplate from PT is how to break up every 100 hands or every hour of play for plot points on the graph.

Make sense?

Any work around?

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[lacky]

question
- EV/table-hr
- SD/table-hr
- Hands/table-hr
are those per table or total? so if I play 8 tables is it 2-16-55 or is it 16-16-440. I would think it's the first, but your example with 95 hands/hours looks like the total maybe. And yeah, I want it too! I can see myself playing with it endlessly during my bad times to convence myself that I don't suck at the game all of a sudden for some mysterios reason.

Steve

[Barrett's Last Privateer]

Sarge,

Have you thought about using Access to get the right cuts of data from your PT stats?

I've done some stuff where I've done a query in Access to give me the info I wanted at an individual hand level, and then mucked around in Excel, where for instance, its easy to split all my hands into groups of 100. (Or just plot them individually). Obvioulsy this would be a problem once you've got over 60,000 hands (which I don't), but I would imagine there is a way you can you can do 100 hand groups in Access, and then export these to Excel for charting purposes.

[MicroBob]

good post Homer (again).

the first time you posted this (last January maybe??) I had a decent understanding on the variance inherent to the game....but your post was still an eye-opener and gave me a hieghtened level of understanding.

I might even recommend a link to these charts in the FAQ's for the internet and/or SS forums.

We obviously get an awful lot of "Wow!!! I've gone down 10 WHOLE BB's in the past 8 hours of play...am I doing something wrong??" type of posts in both of these forums....and these charts may help out some of the newbies understand the variance a bit better.


I don't really need the excel sheet to play around with on my own.
The charts in this post are enough to help give me the necessary perspective when I'm running badly (or running well...which is thankfull the case again of late).

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Between hours 75 and 125 this simulation shows about a -500 BB downswing! OUCH!!! Hope I never have one of those.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Between hours 75 and 125 this simulation shows about a -500 BB downswing! OUCH!!! Hope I never have one of those.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI, the sim is for two-table shorthanded play. Not sure if that makes a difference to you...

[spamuell]

Homer, you are amazing.

I would definitely be interested in fiddling around with this, both for my own use and also because it would be great to show people who keep asking me how I'm doing why it really doesn't matter. Thanks for making and sharing it Homer and thanks for offering to host it mmbt0ne.

[mmbt0ne]

http://www.f2f2s.com/Applications/Streaks.xls

Enjoy, Homer did a great job with it.

[AncientPC]

For Hands/table-hr do I put the number I find in PT - sessions tab or do I divide the number of hands / hour by the number of tables?

BTW, good work with this Homer. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[SackUp]

I like looking at the last graph the best! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

It's amazing how streaky poker can be. The long term chart gives great hope though!

Well done Homer!!

Now if I was only making 2BB/100 I would be set.

P.S. Thanks for hosting it mmbt0ne!

[twankerr]

This thing is kewl. One question though, when would this be practical to use since it takes so many hands to get a true win-rate?

[climber]

I think this is practical to use anytime you start feeling good about your play--especially if you are new to the game like myself.

Homer's posts are awesome--I had your original one bookmarked but more graph are def better. Also thanks to the guy who is hosting it.

[illunious]

[ QUOTE ]
For Hands/table-hr do I put the number I find in PT - sessions tab or do I divide the number of hands / hour by the number of tables?

[/ QUOTE ]

I divided total hands by total hours (table hours, not actual hours). I think this is the way to do it.

Edit: Now that I think of it, that isn't the best way. Much of my time is spent switching games and waiting for blinds.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
it would be great to show people who keep asking me how I'm doing why it really doesn't matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you aren't bothered by actually saying how much you are making then...
You could also say "well, I'm still averaging $x per hour when I play."


I typically just respond "I'm continuing to make way more PER HOUR then at my old job." I think that using phrases like how much you make PER HOUR helps guide non-poker-players (like my family) away from thinking about how much one can lose or win in a single day.

(or sometimes I'll say that I'm continuing to make about double what I made at my old job...which is a bit understated).

[illunious]

The "J" column is an eye opener for me.

Those streaks of hourly negative numbers I see will give me comfort next time I experience it.

[HesseJam]

This is mind numbing. Thanks, Bob, for that excellent sheet.

I put in a break even player who plays 50 hands /h at 2 tables so that you arrive at 1 Mio Hands and hit refresh data a couple of times. The amount won in BBs oscillated between -4000 and +4000 BB (those are extremes, usually, it's closer to the zero line).

BTW, one time I had an upswing of 132 Mio BB (?!) in hour 9706. The random (column I) showed 1.00 . Since I do not know how the formulas work I assume that it shows awkward results if random is very very very close to 1.00.

Again excellent sheet, that proofs we don't know nothing about our winrate and should concentrate on the game itself and become constantly better players.

[MicroBob]

Ummmm, Thanks.....but I certainly can't take credit for it. Too many around here know that I am borderline computer illiterate (and am certainly spread-sheet incompetent).



But I think Homer knows what you mean.

[HesseJam]

Uhmm, yes. Sorry!

THANKS HOMER!!!

[Luv2DriveTT]

How does Homer's spreadsheet compare to using PT with StatKing (which is what I currently do)?

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Luv2DriveTT]

I answered my own question. This is just a simulation. Cool tool though Homer!

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif