08-26-2001, 01:32 AM
To set an example I will post a couple of picks, certainly not in the frequency of others. Once again I hope it leads to some feedback that could change my opinions. Further I hope that others follow my example of putting some reasoning with the picks. This week's pick:
Colorado -8.5 over Fresno State I generally tend to avoid laying points early in the year as underdogs have much better chances now. They are fresh right now without depth problems caused by injuries, they have hope since the season is just starting, the favorites tend to have fewer fans around since these are non-rivalry games and students may not be in class yet. Most of all they are non-conference games early on meaning they have slight significance. Sure good teams want to win, but they realize that the polls are decided by performance late in the season, not early. Having said all that, I like Colorado for a couple of reasons.
1. If any team wanted to buck that trend and have a big performance it has to be this hard luck team. They lost to Nebraska and Washington by a FG each and had numerous injuries to contend with. They lost a lot of close games they might have won had their super frosh Houston been healthy. All in all they are probably just dying for the chance to get that all out of their system as quickly as possible.
2. They have significant speed edge. FSU is a typical WAC team, heavy on JUCOs and lesser talented athletes. CU has had two excellent recruiters in town in Barnett and Neuheisel and that means quality talent and CU's trademark has always been speed at all positions. Big power teams such as Nebraska aren't as dominant early on because their opponents have depth and aren't physically worn down by the season yet. Speed teams like CU have the edge because other teams aren't up to game speed yet and can be beat easier by the big play.
3. The situation is critical here. This plays into my likely play of the month for September next week. I LOVE FSU next week against Oregon State. This is a team that measures itself in all ways to the Pac 10 and what game could be more important than a home opener against a Pac 10 favorite and SI number one (what a joke that is!). This team usually plays Pac 10 opponents on the road, to have a home opener against a major Pac 10 power is a huge game for this team, probably in their minds the biggest game ever to be played in Fresno. Not that they won't come in to try to win this game, but I am sure a lot of their practice and focus has gone to that game against the Beavers and they will just accept their fate here. CU also has their rivalry game with Colorado State coming up, but their needs to erase last year's disappointment will keep them focused on getting off to a quick start and not looking ahead too much.
A lot of strong factors going against the usual logic here, have to lay the points. My only concern is that Fresno has a fairly good passing game that could make the backdoor a possibility. Fortunately the line is coming down enhancing the value. I think the Bulldogs will just fold up and get ready for the Beavers if they fall behind much early on. COLORADO 37 FRESNO 13
Colorado -8.5 over Fresno State I generally tend to avoid laying points early in the year as underdogs have much better chances now. They are fresh right now without depth problems caused by injuries, they have hope since the season is just starting, the favorites tend to have fewer fans around since these are non-rivalry games and students may not be in class yet. Most of all they are non-conference games early on meaning they have slight significance. Sure good teams want to win, but they realize that the polls are decided by performance late in the season, not early. Having said all that, I like Colorado for a couple of reasons.
1. If any team wanted to buck that trend and have a big performance it has to be this hard luck team. They lost to Nebraska and Washington by a FG each and had numerous injuries to contend with. They lost a lot of close games they might have won had their super frosh Houston been healthy. All in all they are probably just dying for the chance to get that all out of their system as quickly as possible.
2. They have significant speed edge. FSU is a typical WAC team, heavy on JUCOs and lesser talented athletes. CU has had two excellent recruiters in town in Barnett and Neuheisel and that means quality talent and CU's trademark has always been speed at all positions. Big power teams such as Nebraska aren't as dominant early on because their opponents have depth and aren't physically worn down by the season yet. Speed teams like CU have the edge because other teams aren't up to game speed yet and can be beat easier by the big play.
3. The situation is critical here. This plays into my likely play of the month for September next week. I LOVE FSU next week against Oregon State. This is a team that measures itself in all ways to the Pac 10 and what game could be more important than a home opener against a Pac 10 favorite and SI number one (what a joke that is!). This team usually plays Pac 10 opponents on the road, to have a home opener against a major Pac 10 power is a huge game for this team, probably in their minds the biggest game ever to be played in Fresno. Not that they won't come in to try to win this game, but I am sure a lot of their practice and focus has gone to that game against the Beavers and they will just accept their fate here. CU also has their rivalry game with Colorado State coming up, but their needs to erase last year's disappointment will keep them focused on getting off to a quick start and not looking ahead too much.
A lot of strong factors going against the usual logic here, have to lay the points. My only concern is that Fresno has a fairly good passing game that could make the backdoor a possibility. Fortunately the line is coming down enhancing the value. I think the Bulldogs will just fold up and get ready for the Beavers if they fall behind much early on. COLORADO 37 FRESNO 13