Protecting your Hand when you think someone got a miracle

[etgryphon]

Hey All:

I got a question about how you guys protect you hand when scare cards come. In the last couple of games, I have been in the lead I'm sure and then a scare card falls and then I feel like I need to go on the defensive. I was wondering what strategies people use to protect your chips when this happens or are you just SOL. I'll give an example:

10ppl 10+1 SNG on UB, Three gone, 30/60 Blinds
Important People:
UTG = 1100
MP1 = 1000
MP2 = 400
SB = 1600
BB(Me) = 1300
Dealt: J8o

PreFlop:
UTG limps, calls from all the MPs, Complete SB, Hero Checks

Flop: 8 J 2 (rainbow)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG min-raise, MP1 fold, MP2 Call, SB fold, Hero raise Pot, UTG smooth-call, MP2 fold

Note: Right now I'm thinking AA,KK,QQ, AJ (maybe), Maybe Trips

Turn: K

What do I do here? Should I play as if it helped me? Play as if I don't care. The UTG is not a bad player, but not great from what I can tell. Do you bet, check-raise, go into calling mode?

-Gryph

[Unarmed]

I come out betting on that flop, but ok.
How is that a scare card for you? You are almost certainly still in the lead here, play the hand as such, IE bet.

[etgryphon]

We'll then I guess I've got a question and a comment...

Question: Having top two pair in this situation, is this a good situation to slowplay? Or is the two pair not strong enough? My thinking is to get someone with a straight draw to muck to the check raise.

Comment: Well, by smooth calling the guy basically is saying top pair doesn't scare me. And he is a good enough player not to call with overcards. The only draw out there is the straight draw, but I was laying the odds so that was a mistake. So this makes me think it has to be 22, 88, AA, KK, QQ, AJ(maybe)...Now, 88 is not very likely because I have the other 8 so it is less likely to have that, 22 is possible but not very likely and I can still catch cards if I'm wrong. What I don't want to see is a A, K, Q because that can mean trips or a larger two-pair for him.

Is my thinking wrong that this is a scare card?

-Gryph

[adanthar]

Why would it possibly be a scare card unless he has exactly KJ or KK?

You're waaaaay overestimating your opponent. He minbet (sure is a sign of great play right there) and then just called a big raise. There's a 99.99% chance you have him beat on the flop and a 99.97% chance you have him beat on the turn.

He's not saying 'top pair doesn't scare me'. He's saying 'I feel like staying in the hand'. He could have AA but he could also have AQ for all you know or care. At the $10 level, don't try to think like your opponents; play your hand.

[Unarmed]

Gryph, work backwards ok?
Your opponent bet/called the flop.
What would he do that with, a set? Unlikely as its a pretty ragged flop.
An overpair? Yes, that would makes sense but QQ/KK/AA raises PF.
An OESD? Yes.
Top pair? Yes, depending on what type of player he is. AJ, KJ, QJ, TJ are all possible holdings for an UTG limper at this level. Add that to the act that most $10 players are absolute calling stations and his bet/call action makes sense.

So you're likely up against top pair or a straight draw, AJ is likely out as that hand is raised by these jokers UTG. There's a good chance KJ is out as well for the same reason. Really, the only hand you should possibly be worried about here is KJ, but the bottom line is you can't allow yourself to. If you check this he'll bet a large number of hands you currently have crushed.

Bet the turn.

Oh to answer your other question, two pair is generally not strong enough to slowplay. Also, you don't want an OESD mucking here. You want them to pay the max they will to see the next card, so long as this amount makes their call incorrect from a pot/hand odds perspective.

[SonnyJay]

While I may be missing something, it seems that you can't really view this as a scare card. The only way that it helped him is if he made a set or a better two pair, and I can't imagine backing down because of this longshot (especially at the $10 level).

I have a feeling you may be giving your opponent too much credit when you say he wouldn't call your checkraise without a hand beating top pair. He may have a set, which you will likely have to pay off, but in my experience people call with less than that.

I would consider it a legitimate fear if the flop is 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and the turn comes K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. However, the lone king in your situation doesn't frighten me very much. Play it like you have the best hand.

-SonnyJay

[etgryphon]

Thanks all for your posts...I was playing a bit of the Devil's Advocate.

My thinking was the same as the post and your replies...I bet the pot on the turn because I was sure that I had him beat and he went all-in and I called the 100 or so chips extra...

He flips over KK and I lose...

I didn't really feel bad about it, but I just want to make sure I wasn't dismissing my analysis too quickly.

Thanks on the two-pair is too weak to slowplay...I still have to think about that but I think that I agree...

-Gryph

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

He flips over KK and I lose...


[/ QUOTE ]

He's an idiot.

[etgryphon]

I'm not sure about that...

I have tried this tactic to bleed someone dry...I usually do it on the bubble and in position, but he seemed to stumble into this as a good play. Doesn't smooth calling here convey strength to a good player. This might be the comments from others that I'm giving him too much credit.

I think thats a weakness in me...I expect everyone to think as much as I do...

-Gryph

[Unarmed]

Let's see:

He limped UTG with KK.
He min-bet his overpair.
He called a pot-raise where I can't think of a single hand that he's ahead of except possibly AJ, but at this level AJ probably jacks it up PF even from the BB.

And none of his actions on this hand give him one clue what his opponents could possibly be holding.

[zephyr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think thats a weakness in me...I expect everyone to think as much as I do...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to be a good poker player you need to be able to think like your opponent. "Overthinking" is often a much greater error than "underthinking", especially at the low limit sng's. You've got top tow pair, your only consideration should be, "how fast can I get all my chips in."

His play of KK was horendous as he allowed a player to hit two pair who would've folded preflop to a raise.

Zephyr

[etgryphon]

Point taken...Thanks!

Still have a bit to learn...I'm working on my feel, I have a good math sense of the game and generally make the correct math move.

So...To recap a bit.

Would the correct move for me be to go all-in on the flop after the minraise? Or do the pot bet and go all in on the turn?

-Gryph

[tigerite]

You played it fine.. he played it like a muppet. Admittedly, not as bad as the nutter I just faced, he limps from MP with AK (5 handed, or maybe 6, can't really remember). I get a free look at the flop with 92o. Flop 9 2 x. I bet almost the pot, not because I am afraid of any draws (it was rainbow) but to extract value and he goes all in with AK. Er? (I called in about a nanosecond. He improved to a K, but no further.)