AQs a loser

[sfbruin]

Have about 15,000 hands in PT w/ about 6BB/hr winrate, but AQs is a big loser for me. This is pretty typical when I don't flop a pair. Am I too aggressive with this hand? Once MP1 3-bets, do I lay this down right there on the flop, or at least fold the turn?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9.16 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (12.16 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 14.16 BB

[Fat Nicky]

Call the flop, fold the turn.

[Kluddeludde]

Actually, I think the raise is fine here. MP1 could very well be betting a flush draw and you may force out better hands than yours with a raise. An added benefit is that you may buy yourself some outs as well as gain the button.

Kludde

[Brash620]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I think the raise is fine here. MP1 could very well be betting a flush draw and you may force out better hands than yours with a raise. An added benefit is that you may buy yourself some outs as well as gain the button.

Kludde

[/ QUOTE ]

If MP1 is betting a flush draw you won't buy any outs. A flush draw would mean that you don't want to see the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or the Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif which leaves you with only four outs to draw to.

[Fat Nicky]

When I said call the flop, I was talking about calling the 3-bet. I like the initial raise.

[MarkD]

You can fold the flop a lot here (for the initial bet, once you raise you have to call the 3-bet as you are now getting a fairly large overlay). This is a leak in my game as well. If you do decide to play on I think calling is at least as good as raising, probably better.

[Kluddeludde]

Oh, my bad. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Kludde

[Kluddeludde]

The flush draw was only an example and buying yourself outs is not applicable in that situation (since you probably already have a better hand than MP1). Buying yourself some out has more merit if he's betting a hand like JT and by raising you can force out A5, for example. Sorry that I wasn't more clear.

Kludde

[Kluddeludde]

If you do decide to play on I think calling is at least as good as raising, probably better.

An explanation perhaps? I routinely raise this for reasons I've outlined in my other posts in the thread.

Kludde

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
If you do decide to play on I think calling is at least as good as raising, probably better.

An explanation perhaps? I routinely raise this for reasons I've outlined in my other posts in the thread.

Kludde

[/ QUOTE ]

And those reasons are...
[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I think the raise is fine here. MP1 could very well be betting a flush draw and you may force out better hands than yours with a raise. An added benefit is that you may buy yourself some outs as well as gain the button.


[/ QUOTE ]

I will start by saying that I don't think raising here is necessary wrong - but I don't think it is clear and I can't say that I like it a ton.

You are getting around 10-1 immediate odds. You have 6 outs at best. You are not going to fold a better hand. You are not going to fold a flush draw. If there is a flush draw you are down to 4 outs and if you catch on the turn your opponents will have redraws against you. You will not win this 4 outer as often as say a gutshot on a rainbow flop so it's not really a very strong 4 outer and you are barely getting correct odds to draw to a clean 4 outer.

Above I stated that you are not going to fold a better hand. Anyone who cold called your raise pre-flop with a 3 or a 5 in their hand is not going to be folding on the flop. To think that they are is being overly optimistic. No jack is ever going to fold to your flop raise either IMO, so you are not going to make a better hand fold very often. Maybe a mid-pocket pair like 6’s or 7’s, but that’s assuming a lot here.

In addition to all of the above the villain bet into the pre-flop raiser on this board. He has a jack or better a lot of the time and at worst he has a flush draw which is not pretty for you either. In either of these cases, where the better has a jack or a flush draw, I like it that the other players in the hand stay in the hand to give me some extra semblance of value on my shaky draw. I am not going to make them fold an A3 or an A5 so a raise is unlikely to “clean up my ace” outs. Therefore allowing these extra players to remain in this pot doesn’t hurt me much when I’m behind and when I’m ahead I’m barely a favorite (if at all) head’s up. Also, it’s not unreasonable to believe that the first two players checked with the intention of check raising as it’s basically assume you will bet this flop.

Now that I’ve explained my reasoning I really don’t like raising here and think that folding and calling are both better options.

[sfbruin]

Doesn't look like there's a consensus. Thanks for the replies. Anyone else?

[sfbruin]

Doesn't look like there's a consensus. Thanks for the replies. Anyone else?

[lu_hawk]

Fold the turn, an A or Q doesn't win it enough of the time.

[J.R.]

The flop raise sucks. Instead of telling us how well you have run over the last 15K hands, why don't tell us what you knew about MP1's style of play?

[sfbruin]

MP-1 was a bit laggish but not enough to classify him as a lag. So would you just call or fold? The reason I noted that I'm a winning player over 15k hands is to emphasize that I must be misplaying AQs and need help in that area.

[sfer]

You'll get AQs as infrequently as any specific combination of suited cards, which is to say less than any pair or any combination of offsuit cards, which is to say you certainly don't have enough hands to definitely state you are misplaying AQs.

[Rex Bluett]

you've got no piece of this board, you've got someone in front of you willing to bet into a PFR two players behind who could raise , so far this hand has cost you 2sb why get involved? I'm for folding on the flop.

[David BB]

I like folding on the flop too. A /images/graemlins/club.gif instead of one of the /images/graemlins/diamond.gif's and I'd raise it.

[Trix]

I only have 10K 3/6 hands, but I win with AQs and loose with AKs, wtf /images/graemlins/confused.gif
Even though my rate isnt near yours.