When does Chuck-a-Puck become +EV?

[TheRake]

This is getting dangerously close to being on topic (or off topic if you prefer), but I'll post it here anyway.

I have season tickets to Fort Worth Brahmas (http://www.brahmas.com/) Hockey. Each home game they have an event they call Chuck-a-Puck (http://mlans.dynip.com/blogpics/2002-04-09-wolves-chuckapuck.htm). Some of you may have heard of this, but for those of you who haven't I'll explain. Basically you buy these soft rubber hockey pucks for $1 ea. or 6 for $5. Then between the 2nd and 3rd period they put a bucket (or some other thing) at center ice and everyone throws their pucks from the stands and tries to get them into the bucket. It's pretty hard and it very rarely happens that someone actually makes it into the bucket, but each game that no one makes it they add another $25 (or $50 I can't remember) to the jackpot. The current jackpot stands at $275 (or $300). I usually don't play, but my question is when does it become +EV to start buying pucks?

My seats are about 50 yards from the bucket and above obviously. I can basically move as close as I want, but it seems a little easier to throw from a little farther back and be higher up in relation to the ice. I can make the throw distance wise with little effort, and as I stated before the pucks are soft rubber so they will bounce once they reach the ice surface.


TheRake

Edited typo...

[elwoodblues]

The answer is dependent on your ability to sink the shot. Without this information, it is impossible to give any information with regard to EV.

[TheRake]

Well I don't really know what my ability would be as I have never participated. I assume my chances are not very good, but I did play baseball for many years and have some throwing ability. I would think my chances might be better than a woman or a child, but still not very good. Each game there are maybe 500 to 1k pucks thrown and it's rare to see one go in. I have seen maybe 3 go in over 100 games.

[elwoodblues]

[ QUOTE ]
Each game there are maybe 500 to 1k pucks thrown and it's rare to see one go in. I have seen maybe 3 go in over 100 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's just assume you as good as what you've seen in the past. In 100 games you've seen about 75,000 pucks thrown (avg. 750 / game) and only 3 made it. In other words, for every one puck that makes it, 25K are thrown.

I think you need to wait a while for that jackpot to build.

[GuyOnTilt]

I went to a minor league baseball game with some friends and they had the same thing except with tennis balls and a ring placed on the mound. The ball has to come to rest within the ring, which is on hard dirt and on the slope of the mound. If anybody made it they got about $500 in prizes and gift cards and stuff. They charged $1/ball and when the announcer gave the command, about a hundred balls went flying onto the field at the same time. I waited till almost everybody had gone to throw mine, figuring the chances of my ball bouncing off an already resting ball were offset by being able to see how far they bounced after hitting the grass and not having someone else's knock mine out of the ring on a bounce should I make it. My first and only ball was good. Out of over 300 balls sold, mine was the only one to score. I rule! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

GoT

[TheRake]

GoT,

That is pretty impressive. What other prizes did you get?

I have seen a few make it, and usually people get autographed jerseys and such. Just this year they started giving away cash.

TheRake

[GuyOnTilt]

I got a $100 Nordstrom card, a $100 Costco card, two tickets to a catered suite for a Mariner game, a two person voucher for the Spirit of Washington Dinner Train, and some certificates for free carwashes and burgers and what not. So it was actually good prizes.

GoT

[Peca277]

[ QUOTE ]
I went to a minor league baseball game with some friends and they had the same thing except with tennis balls and a ring placed on the mound. The ball has to come to rest within the ring, which is on hard dirt and on the slope of the mound. If anybody made it they got about $500 in prizes and gift cards and stuff. They charged $1/ball and when the announcer gave the command, about a hundred balls went flying onto the field at the same time. I waited till almost everybody had gone to throw mine, figuring the chances of my ball bouncing off an already resting ball were offset by being able to see how far they bounced after hitting the grass and not having someone else's knock mine out of the ring on a bounce should I make it. My first and only ball was good. Out of over 300 balls sold, mine was the only one to score. I rule! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

My college had chuck a puck as well, but you had to get it as close to the center dot as possible. The prize was a free pizza or something like that. I tried the same wait for everybody else strategy and was easily the closest one time... until someone waited even longer than I did and knocked me out! Being the poor college student that I was, it definitely ruined my day.

With regards to the + or -EV, I'd say that if the money goes to a good cause, then even if you don't win it could be +EV. I always knew the money for ours was going to a local homeless shelter, and I had fun participating so the fact that I never won didn't really matter.

[TheRake]

[ QUOTE ]
With regards to the + or -EV, I'd say that if the money goes to a good cause, then even if you don't win it could be +EV. I always knew the money for ours was going to a local homeless shelter, and I had fun participating so the fact that I never won didn't really matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the money just goes to the team. It's quite a racket they have going. They collect $750-$1k/game and give away a jersey and a progressive jackpot.

If it gets to $500 I will prolly give it a shot.

TheRake

[youtalkfunny]

I did this one night at a Memphis Riverkings game. I was sitting on the blueline, about the tenth row. Being close made it easier, right?

WRONG! Any throw hard enough to clear the glass, sent the puck flying past the target. No matter how much "arc" I'd put on the shot.

If this is something you're taking seriously, I'd go upstairs and lob 'em down from the balcony. And center ice may not be the best place to throw from.

[Michael Davis]

But you don't need a gift card to get merchandise from Nordstrom's.

-Michael

[TheRake]

[ QUOTE ]
If this is something you're taking seriously, I'd go upstairs and lob 'em down from the balcony. And center ice may not be the best place to throw from.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah our seats are on the 2nd level at the blueline. We had seats on the glass for several years, but decided this year since our team has sucked so bad for so long that we were buying cheap seats. Our team is in 1st place now /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Memphis used to kick our a$$ all over the ice.

I agree it seems easier from a little farther back.

TheRake