How bad is this river check with top pair?

[Evan]

Okay, a little background...for anyone that doesn't know, I miss a lot of value bets (especially on the river) and it hurts my win rate. I know this and I desperately try to fix it, apparently that's not so easy.

On to the hand:

Only read is on MP1, he's a very predictable player. Straightforward and too passive postflop, aggression tends to slow him down big time.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (13.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

If anyone wants to take a stab at trying to figure out what the EV of a bet would be here that would be much cool too. Thanks.

[MarkD]

I bet here, but it's too late for me to try and figure out it's EV. I do believe it's &gt;0 and &lt;4BB's though. It's probably around 1BB. It's not insignifcant.

[sthief09]

if he capped the flop, it would be a different story

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
I do believe it's &gt;0

[/ QUOTE ]
Yea

[ QUOTE ]
and &lt;4BB's

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Also yea

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It's not insignifcant.

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Biggest yea

[Evan]

Yea. How much do you care about the read in this spot? That's kinda the question too. FWIW, I had some semi-decent # of hands on him. &lt;100 but &gt;50.

[James282]

Dude, the king doesn't change anything. I'd be stunned if you weren't ahead on the turn given the action and doubly stunned if you weren't ahead on the river once the 4 straight misses. I think the EV of a bet is around 2 quite honestly.
-James

[nothumb]

I think there's definite value here in a bet. The only hand I'd expect to lose to might be something like 87 from MP1 and he got a-scared.

NT

[Moozh]

Let's go through this street by street.

Pre-Flop: I don't like suited aces as much as most here. I also hate being out of position with drawing hands. Fortunately, you're the button and have an easy call in my opinion. Moving on...

Flop: You hit a very strong draw. You have the sucker end of the straight, so your 10 might not be clean, but the flush draw alone is enough for you to bet here. You get check-raised, but that's fine since it actually helped trap two players (and a third cold-called for some crazy reason). You can three-bet here with confidence knowing you will be called by most everyone and will also have a good chance of getting a free card. So far so good.

The Turn: This is interesting. You improved in a way you weren't expecting. A pair of aces with a weak kicker is dangerous, but that doesn't mean you should slow down. Now, none of the players raised pre-flop. You can usually expect the average 2/4 player to pretty much always raise AK, AQ, and maybe AJ, so you can be fairly sure those hands aren't out. That leaves AT-A7. A possibility for sure, since people love to limp in with weak aces. What else could you be behind? A set, two-pair or a made straight is really all that's left. Against all of them, you have a significant re-draw on the river. Ok, now that we've thought all that through, let's look at the turn action:

The turn is checked to you. This is very likely due to your three-bet on the flop. Still, since you three-bet the flop, I feel it would be very hard for any of the other players to put you on a pair of aces. More likely, they have you on a pair of nines, two-pair, or made straight. This is a tough situation because better hands will often call you down if you bet. Still, since no one else had wanted to take control of the hand, I feel you must bet here. You very likely have the best hand.

Ok, so you bet and get called by EVERYONE? If you were up against a made straight or even a set, I would expect a check-raise here a high percentage of the time (which you would call looking for your flush on the river). What about the other weak aces that could beat you? A7-A9 just made two-pair, and I would guess that they would be willing to give you action as well. So, what could they be calling with? AT and AJ could beat you. You would also lose to a low 2-pair and possibly a very passively played set. That's it! I really doubt the straight is out there since you were not bet into or raised on the turn. So, what hands are out there that you can beat? Well, if you look at the board, you'll notice that it's insanely draw-heavy. It's very likely you're up against a weaker flush draw, possibly one or two other tens, a jack, or even another 6. In fact I would guess that you're against these hands far more often than any of the possible hands that could beat you. On to the river...

River: And everyone misses their draws. Bummer, the flush would have been nice. It's checked through, so what do you do? First off, I don't think you get a better hand to fold here. If a low two-pair or a higher ace were going to fold, they would have let it go on the turn. Since the river wasn't a scare card, these hands will have no reason to reconsider that decision on the river. Thus, the question is, if you bet, which worse hands will call? Well, you can immediately rule out all the players with pure draws. No flush draws, no straight draws call you here? So who does? For starters, any single pair of 7s, 8s, or 9s. If they were going to fold, they would have folded on the turn. What else? Well, how about KJ, KT, JJ and TT. JJ and TT are unlikely because there was no pre-flop raise, but they're still possible from passive players (I would assume QQ would be raised pre-flop).

So, is it enough? I think it's close. When it's close, I usually close my eyes and bet. This is a situation that really illustrates why player reads are so important. If I knew I was up against a group of 50% VPIPs, I would bet here with more confidence. If I was up against 17%s, I would be more inclined to check it through. I think the balance at Party 2/4 leans towards you betting this out.

Now, as a side discussion, I think I would probably fold to a river check-raise. I don't see any hands that you beat making that play.

Wow, that was long. Thoughts?

[Evan]

Yea, you pretty much got everything there. A lot of those hadns are way unlikely but possible none the less. You say its close and I tend to disagree, I think this is a clear bet without quesiton.

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Now, as a side discussion, I think I would probably fold to a river check-raise. I don't see any hands that you beat making that play.

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Part of the reason that I checked was that I could not fold to a c/r. Does that make it any better? Giving up EV in one spot to avoid losing it in a another. I know that this is far from ideal, but when presented with 2 options, which is better? I'm pretty sure betting is still better even if I call every c/r, but I'd love to hear some opinions on this.

[me454555]

Against 3 opponents with a very small possibility of a checkraise you don't have to be right very often to make this a profitable value bet.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Part of the reason that I checked was that I could not fold to a c/r. Does that make it any better? Giving up EV in one spot to avoid losing it in a another. I know that this is far from ideal, but when presented with 2 options, which is better? I'm pretty sure betting is still better even if I call every c/r, but I'd love to hear some opinions on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting and calling every check raise is better than checking; a check raise is not too likely. Betting and folding to any check raise is better still.

[Danenania]

I don't get the whole "can't fold to a raise thing". If you know it's going to be -EV to call, why would you call? Just fold. I think this is a bad concept that gets overused here. It's almost like a form of tilt.