AK on the bubble

[housenuts]

i think i played this hand like a big vagina. $10+1 @ stars.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

UTG (t4246)
Button (t1592)
SB (t5382)
Hero (t2280)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t500</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to t1092</font>, Hero calls t892, Button folds.

Flop: (t2684) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets t1188</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t3872
<font color="green">Main Pot: t2684 (t2684), won by SB.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: t1188 (t1188), returned to SB.</font>

upon reflection my thinking was seriously flawed. it's either push or fold. because what happened is the short stack then folded, i missed the flop and had to fold because i was still slightly ahead of the shortstack.

do you see any sense in folding this preflop? i think the shortstack would have called the raise if I had stayed out of it.

[texasrattlers]

What's the deal with the funky bets by the big stack (1092, 1188)? Why do people do that?

I probably go all in PF. You may be in a coin flip situation, but if you win you have a good shot at first, whereas if you fold you are only trying to sneak into 3rd. Plus you may have his hand dominated.

[Gramps]

That kind of sucks that SB jumped in there and "got in your way." The problem with pushing is that SB will be getting around 3:1 to call your push (roughly 1200 to win 3900, I think that's right?), and with his huge stack you have very little folding equity there (at least if the button gets out of the way) - you're probably going to have to show down the best hand. You gotta like AKo as a good favorite on average... but it's only about 2/3 against even a random hand (and there's a very good chance SB used at least some selection criteria here - meaning you're likely to be eliminated 40% of the time or so +/- a bit), meaning you'll get knocked out a fair % of the time.

It would be nice to double up + that nice overlay from the button, but you put 3rd place at risk to have a smallish chip lead on UTG and SB. Don't know if that's worth the risk $EV-wise given the payout structure. (ICM? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?)

If you flat call, 2/3 of the time you'll be holding Ace high on the flop and check-fold to SB's (almost certain) bet, leaving you about on par with the button - shortsacked and not having the inside track on 3rd anymore.

If you fold (as much as it sucks to fold AK), it's likely that the button and SB will get all-in here, giving you a decent shot at 3rd right there by sitting back. If the button folds, you're 2:1 on his short stack and looking good. If button doubles up...at least you know where you stand, still have 10BB or so, and time to pick your spots.

And...if the button hasn't made any "steal plays" like this yet (usually pushing his short stack all-in PF instead of some intermediate raise), there's always the chance he wants the SB to come over the top of his AA/KK - just an extra thought (probably not applicable).

I'd say (1) fold, (2) push, (3) call and see a flop. Maybe someone else will argue that pushing is a better play. I'd probalby only push if I've seen something from SB indicating he folds to playbacks - even when he's likely to have proper odds and a huge stack of chips (lack of understanding of all-in hand values, etc.).

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the deal with the funky bets by the big stack (1092, 1188)? Why do people do that?


[/ QUOTE ]

They just scooch the slider aways and it lands where it lands. I have wondered if this is a tell for a sloppy, non-analytical player.

eastbay

[Gramps]

A couple of times while multitabling, I've made an accidental call, thinking some oddly-numbered bet was an all-in. E.g. 50/100 level, MP player with 1500 chips open-raises to 288, folded to me in BB, I see I only have to call 188 to win 438...I call the raise with J8o or some other crap...then the flop comes and there's a pause in the card flipping...oh sh-t, he's got a lot more chips still! (and I'm sitting there with jack high/no draws feeling like a dumbass)

[texasrattlers]

I would like to rescind my previous analysis. This is a really tough situation and Gramps' analysis is much better than mine. Seriously.

[housenuts]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's the deal with the funky bets by the big stack (1092, 1188)? Why do people do that?


[/ QUOTE ]

They just scooch the slider aways and it lands where it lands. I have wondered if this is a tell for a sloppy, non-analytical player.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not true. this is at poker stars. i'm not sure how it works at party, but at stars the slider goes up by increments of the minimum bet. the only way to bet silly amounts like this is by manually typing it in.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the deal with the funky bets by the big stack (1092, 1188)? Why do people do that?

[/ QUOTE ]

These weren't random amounts. The first bet is enough to exactly put the shortstack all in, and the second is enough to exactly put Hero all in.

He probably made the first bet that way to make it look easier for the SB and BB to call and help knock out the shortstack. It kind of telegraphs that he will "play nice" to try and knock out the shortstack.

[texasrattlers]

I think the first bet would have left the short stack w/ 500 if called. And with that amount of chips in the pot I am not trusting anyone that they will "play nice." /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[housenuts]

i generally find people are more likely to call when you bet amounts like that. eg. at 10/20 blinds if you want to raise 4x bb if you raise to 88 people will be more likely to call than if you raise to 80. funny how it works. of course you'd only want to do this when you want callers.

[SmileyEH]

I like betting in incrmeents of 69 when i play HU sng's...or 123, 555 etc. etc.

-SmileyEH

[captZEEbo1]

lol gramps, I've done that too. It's really really lame when you see a flop with those random cards you were calling planning on it being an allin call /images/graemlins/smile.gif