Downswing of half my bankroll... what to do?

[pshreck]

After one of my best weeks in poker at the 22 dollar level, I cashed out my 1,300 in winnings for the week on Friday morning.

Then It happened.

My first downswing over 12 buy-ins.... conveniently about double that, at 23 buy ins, after losing my last 8.

For the past 3 months I have kept 1k as my bankroll for this level, roughly 50 buy ins. Never having down swung more than 12 through about 2k SNGs, I thought it was a fine level. Now, being at 500 bucks, down from 1k which it was at Friday morning, I am concerned as what to do.

I don't really even want to consider moving down to the 11s, I have beaten the 22s for plenty long and I am convinced I can continue to. Should I reload my bankroll now back to 1k?

Also... for a long-term 25% ROI player, what are the odds of downswinging 23 buy-ins over 48 tournaments. I think that a downswing this large is highly unlikely for me even through a stretch of 2k tournaments.

This might not be healthy, but I am trying to convince myself that this will happen to about 1 in 20 players at my ROI over 2k SNGS. My girlfriend and I split up the 48 tournaments and looked at my coinflip situations. I lost 79% of them. We looked at my allins preflop with a 70% or more advantage (meaning either overpair or something like AK vs AQ). This is the winning number: I won 3 out of 19.

The funny thing is I was mocking someone the other day about the odds of something like this happening... I claimed it was close to mathemetically impossible for any player to have this kind of luck. I had AA 4 times over the stretch, and hell yeah I won 2 of those. I had KK 5 times, but I wasn't lucky enough to win any.

This has to happen to players, even if it is incredibly rarely, it still has to happen..... I have been wrapping my head around this damn thing for the past 4 hours trying to put a positive spin on it. Help.

[1p0kerb0y]

I just started the $22s, but I can offer you this advice:

You have run bad, and you have shown why you have run bad. You have consistently beat these games over the past 3 months. Don't sweat it!

However, if the $500 is your only bankroll, you should step down. Stepping down isn't because you can not play up to the level you are at, it is a MEASURE TO PROTECT YOUR BANKROLL. Grind the $11s for a week or two and then come back up. If you have funds elsewhere, then take that into consideration and stay at the level you are at.

I beleive that an odd streak like this can happen rarely (although it hasn't happened to me). I have run bad but never been down this much.

[adanthar]

If you're convinced you're not playing badly or on tilt, and the coinflips have been that bad, why are you even considering moving down unless you need the money to live on?

[stripsqueez]

so in a good week you can make $1,300 playing this game ? - cool

you would have to be a tad stupid and/or greedy to risk your ability to make that much money by not having a fat bankroll

i'm currently negotiating to buy a chunk of a small business - the advice i have recieved on the appropriate price from a couple of sources is that in addition to valueing the stuff the business owns i should allow 18 months of usual profit to come to a final figure - in a fire sale my share of the business is worth maybe $8,000 and i'm looking to pay maybe $40,000 for a one third share so its mostly "goodwill" that makes up the price - apparently this is the usual expectation when valueing and buying a business

your concerned about losing something like a week or 2's usual profit because you chose not to keep something like a months usual profit in your bankroll ?? - get real

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[elcheapo]

I've played about 500 20 tournamens and I'm probably at about 15% ROI. I've played about 150-200 30-50-100 and I'm probably about 30% ROI. I'm pretty damn aggressive at times and I need people willing to lay down to a checkraise semibluff and at the 20's there is not the necessary skill to make easy laydowns. I think it depends on your playing style, if you play really ABC then the 20's maximize your EV but if you like to mix it up then the 20's suck. My advice is to either move up and experience a few less suckouts or play the same 20's and wait for the odds to swing your way.

[rjb03]

lol

[elcheapo]

care to elaborate

[pshreck]

[ QUOTE ]
care to elaborate

[/ QUOTE ]

It is unlikely any player can maintain a 30% ROI at those levels. Not to say you aren't one of the very few who can. It is even more unlikely that the elite level it takes to maintain that ROI can't do the same or better at the 20+2 level, regardless of your 'style' of play. It has to do with your poker ability, not style.

[elcheapo]

I don't agree, you play against many varied players at the 20's. Some horrific,some bad,some reasonable, some slightly above average. When I 4 table, an aggressive attacking style will achieve really horrible stretches because of the randomness of the play. Now if 70-80% of the players are reasonable at 30,50,100's then an attacking style will have a higher degree of success because people actually value their chips. There is something to be said for tightening up because of the bad play, but I don't fight to make 3rd or maybe second. I take my small/medium advantages and attack hoping to bully other players on the bubble. If my AK gets beat by AQ,AJ,A10 enough times because of players overvaluing their hands at the lower levels then I'm left with 3 ITM in 20 (like my latest stretch). I'd say 4 losses came from a bad play but the other 15 came from AK vs AQ, overpair/underpair scenarios. i switched over at the end of the day and played 6 50's and 1 30. Finished 1st 3 times in the 50 and once in the 30's for a 550$ dollar profit and made up for the poor stretch in the 20's.

[bball904]

Is there any way to label a poster as someone not to take seriously? I'd hate to give credibility to comments from people that live out in left field.

[bball904]

I don't think it's that unusual at all. I have a 24.7% ROI in 430 55's and I had a stretch of 40 with a -24.5 buy-in loss. In that stretch I busted with KK 4 times without every seeing an Ace on the board, 3 times to runner runner flushes and once to a 94 2 pair on the flop. I was just getting brutally cold decked, and it turned around. Just clear your head and stay at the 22's if you feel you're playing your A game.

[Gramps]

Always respect the inherent variance of the game. It doesn't care how good your are, or how long you've played poker for, it will always creep up and b-tch slap you from time to time.

I feel your pain, but....yawn! It happens. Always be more than adequately bankrolled for the level you play, stick to your winning game, and the long run will take care of the rest. Maybe you've suffered some "subtle tilt" and compounded things a little (it happens to most everyone), but ugly streaks do happen regardless.

If you're a 25% ROI winner including that streak, take comfort. If adding the streak knocks that ROI down a little...still take comfort. The long run still looks really good.

[DonkeyKong]

pshreck,

I split up the 48 tournaments and looked at my coinflip situations. I lost 79% of them. We looked at my allins preflop with a 70% or more advantage (meaning either overpair or something like AK vs AQ). This is the winning number: I won 3 out of 19.

I had a downswing a while back and feel like you do now... But I improved my game and the coin-flips have been running nicely for a while and I have sucked a few out myself on stuff like QQ vs KK.

Hang in there and constantly work on your style and tweaking it as necessary and the math will run in your favor again. Just take a break for a while and think about poker and re-read some of your stuff and your game will turn.

[Jman28]

You'll be fine.

About reloading, why not just play without reloading and then reload if neccesary later? I think the BR requirements have to do with what you can lose before being broke and unable to play, not what is in your account. If you bust out, you can always put the next $500 or $1,000 in then, but more likely than that, you'll be back up to where you were soon.

Then you'll have saved yourself the trouble.

DEFINITELY don't drop to the $11s. That's a waste of your time.

-Jman28

[Sluss]

I used to feel this same way. Bigger Buy-ins better players more laydowns. At some tables this is true. Unfortunatly at most it is not.

Don't get me wrong there are many more laydowns at higher buy-ins, but there are still morons who call big raises with Ax off suit and other odd plays that just get lucky. While trying to bluff and "mix it up" can be profitable in a tight game. In most games you find this will just make you angry when some "dope" calls you down with crap.

The big problem is that playing this style is most conducive during the day when there are more rocks. But there are also fewer players. So they repeat and good players will spot you out and make you pay for being too loose of a player. So this may work short term, it will not long term.

edit: By the way my ROI has raised too with each level. I just don't think it will last.

[JalKelly]

After reading about the enormous downswings posters like you and others have brought up I decided to set a limit for myself. If I go 6 sng without a cash I stop and look at all of the HH from those 6 sng and 4 before the streak happened; so my last 10 games in all. Not only do I take note of what stuff didn't work but I especially take note of what WAS working. So many times we don't fix something if it isn't broken but we need to constantly remind ourselves in poker of what works for us.

Good luck on getting your mojo back.