Hand question

[spindizzy]

Situation:

You are in BB at 0.5/1 NL table filled with loose aggressive players. UTG+2 bets 8. Two more call. Dealer raises 20. You have pocket 8s.

What do you do?

[Mangatang]

fold

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Easy fold

[spindizzy]

Good, that means I did right, even though I lost out on a full house. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[AKQJ10]

Expect to get a lecture from someone here about the fallacy of results-based evaluation of one's own play. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[YourFoxyGrandma]

Don't be results-based.

[Greg J]

What happened with the cards that came after IN NO WAY makes your decision incorrect. If you fold 63o preflop and the flop comes 6 6 3, does that make your preflop fold wrong? No silly! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Also, this question is suited for the NL hold em small stakes forum. (I'm not trying to be a jerk, it's just the function of that forum. FYI /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

[River2Pair]

A similar one happened to me at a LA casino on the night of a WPT tournament. Blinds were $3/$5 with a $200 buy-in.

I had about $750 in front of me, and limped UTG with 88. Everyone limps, and the button (very aggro, gambler) moves in for a little over $1,000. I start muttering about how I think I have him beat, but I can't call that bet. Another EP player calls for about $300 with KK to beat button's AKo. I would have made eights full of fours for the winner, but I still thought I made the right move. Not closing the action made a big difference here. Besides, I've spent hours grinding to get my stack, and now all of a sudden I'm going to make a hugely -EV call against the RANGE of hands I can be up against?

I love hearing fish explain why they called a large reraise with 55. "I put you on ace-king," when you drag a pot with AA or KK or something. Next time they say that, I think I'm going to say, "Oh yeah? I put you on jack-four offsuit."

If the thought of putting somebody on ace-king crosses your mind because you have a small pair and they reraised you in NL, just rememeber that what you're really doing is hoping they have ace-king. And even if they do, you have a lot of cards to dodge.

[AncientPC]

Autofold.

If you had KK then you'd be in a tough spot, it would depend on how LAG you think the two players in front of you are.

[PoBoy321]

I'm going to be the first person to tell you that this is NOT an auto-fold. It comes down to stack sizes. If you have $50 and the dealer has $50, then yes, auto-fold. If you have $300 and the dealer has $50, then again, auto-fold. If, however, you have $300 and the dealer has $300, I say that it's an auto-call, but realize that you're drawing to a set. Dealer is probably looking at KK or AA and if you hit your set, you could easily bust him, depending on how LAG he is and how unwilling he would be to let go of his big pair. About 10% of the time, you'll flop a set, and although you're about 20% to bust AA or KK, you wouldn't hold onto your hand after the flop, so just some quick EV calculations shows (.10 x $300)-(.90 x $20)= +$12, so in that case, it would be a +EV move to make the call.

[RydenStoompala]

Fold with extreme prejudice.

Put the laces on top and punt.

You did the right thing.

[AncientPC]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to be the first person to tell you that this is NOT an auto-fold. It comes down to stack sizes. If you have $50 and the dealer has $50, then yes, auto-fold. If you have $300 and the dealer has $50, then again, auto-fold. If, however, you have $300 and the dealer has $300, I say that it's an auto-call, but realize that you're drawing to a set. Dealer is probably looking at KK or AA and if you hit your set, you could easily bust him, depending on how LAG he is and how unwilling he would be to let go of his big pair. About 10% of the time, you'll flop a set, and although you're about 20% to bust AA or KK, you wouldn't hold onto your hand after the flop, so just some quick EV calculations shows (.10 x $300)-(.90 x $20)= +$12, so in that case, it would be a +EV move to make the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that playing with and against deeper stacks you can (and should) call higher preflop raises. However, in this situation it is autofold because:

1) Even LAGs get dealt AA / KK sometimes.

2) More often than not the first pre-flop raiser will either push or fold. He will probably not smoothcall the $12 reraise.

3) You are a marginal coinflip favorite vs any two overcards (which LAGs can and might push with), and a heavy underdog vs any higher pocket pair.

4) I have a hard time believing that another deep stack will push all in on the flop with only an overpair vs another deep stack. You need to stack another $300 stack 6% of the time to make calling a $20 preflop raise 0 EV.

5) I believe that if you are better than the other players (especially if they're LAG), more profitable opportunities will come along rather than calling a $20 raise with a pocket pair hoping to catch a set.

[PoBoy321]

I understand that, but at these levels, most players aren't good deep stack players and would be willing to go to the felt post-flop with a big pocket pair. Implied odds are often a difficult concept to deal with because it depends a lot on what you expect the other player to do. Basically, my point was that even if you knew EXACTLY what the other player holds, it isn't necessarily as cut and dry as "you're beat pre-flop, fold." 95% of the time, I absolutely agree, you should fold. My point was just that there are some instances where this could be a profitable call.