2 hands from 1600 NEPC (Hand 2)

Please read hand 1 first as there will be some information that will help in answering this hand.


6 players left. I am the short stack with 22K in chips. The blinds are 1500/3000 with 500 antes.


The 2 chip leader are to my left--immediately to my left is Syracuse Chris (for those who dont know him, a VERY aggressive player with a lot of "heart" He will raise with nearly any hand) he has with about 140K then Paul Darden with about 110K. The next shortest stack has about 55K--he is to my right.


Preflop all fold to Syracuse Chris in the Sb. The last 2 times this happened Chris called, I checked, I missed the flop, chris bet I folded. This time Chris Called.


I had 10-3 offsuit. I checked

(First round of comments here).


The flop comes J-3-2. Chris bets 4000 into a 7000 pot.


What is your play and why?

I was pretty sure that Chris was NEVER going to give me a walk in the BB. I was also pretty sure that he would raise any reaonable hand coming in (except AA and maybe KK). Given this I believe I should have moved in preflop because he is unlikely to call with 2 random cards when doing so risks doubling me up and making a non-threat a real threat to his stack.


Interestingly I was going to do this, but looked at my cards and chickened out. I mean who the hell wants to go out moving in on the big stack preflop with a 10-3?


Anyway, once I saw the flop I decided that Chris did NOT have 44-QQ as a pair (and I doubted AA or KK). So the only way he can beat me is if he has a J. If he has 45 (in which case he has a straight draw and over--if he had 4-5 of hearts he would also have had a flush draw--so yes to this hand I would be a dog as well). I was also fairly certain he would bet at any flop, I mean, I would, why not give the guy a chance to fold.


Now the question is does he have a Jack? Well, I have no idea, but I am pretty dure he would have raised me preflop with A-J, K-J, Q-J J-10, and may J-9.


This is more than 1/3 of the chances of jacks if he holds one at all. After maybe 1 minute, I decide to move in on him. I decide I still have enough chips that he can and will fold a hand without a jack (or 3-2, or 4-5 etc . . .), and although I want him to fold 8-7 It is not the end of the world if he calls either.


My raise is about 17K more into an 11 K pot, so it is foldable situation even for a big stack.


He had J-5 and of course called with no hesitation.


Other opinions:


Move in preflop-- If my read is correct that Chris would raise any "real" hand here, and not want to double me up without a real hand, he has to by definition fold any hand that he limps with other than AA or KK (or maybe 8-7s). I have a better chance winning this way. The downside is that chris will no longer limp in my BB he will probably raise every time (because he wont likley fold). Still I think this would have been a better play.


Call on the flop--It was said to me that this would "strike the fear of god into him, and MAYBE he checks down the rest of the hand." Personally I think it is hard to scare an 800lb gorilla with a twig. I mean, if I call and he has nothing, he may check it down, unless he hits something. If I call and he has a jack, there is not much doubt his weak kicker will put me in on the turn, I cant really hurt him. If the turn goes check check. I cant possibly see him checking the river.


Fold the flop--Obviously this is an option, I still only have 10-3. OTH I dont have a lot of chips. The other short stack (with about 45K) is Iron Mike who understands the game enough to wait for me to bust. The blinds are so big, if I fold here I am close to having to move in on the button or the hand after (remember the antes).


I think all three options were close here. My order of preference would be:


1) raise all in preflop

2) raise on the flop

3) fold

Russell,


He could put you all-in on this hand. Don't get involved. He knows that you are weak at this point so he will bet till the river, and finishes you off if he catches something. A pair of threes is not that strong to risk at this point. I think it would be better to wait for someone else to make a mistake, or wait until you have a stronger hand to be the agressor.


Good Luck


Mark

> immediately to my left is Syracuse Chris [..] all fold to Syracuse Chris in the Sb


This makes no sense, so I assume he sat to your right and you were in the BB.


> I had 10-3 offsuit. I checked [..] The flop comes J-3-2. Chris bets 4000 into a 7000 pot


Unless this underbet is unusual for him and you had reasons to assume that he's got a jack, I'd go in here, as on face-rag-rag flops, a bluff is almost automatic.


cu


Ignatius

Yes as Ignatius pointed out, Chris was to my right not to my left.

Haven't looked at results yet but yes, I agree, for exactly the same reason. Much less aggressive players than Chris would stick a bluff in on that kind of flop against the short stack.


If you were the second shortest stack things might be different, but as the shortest, waiting isn't going to get you very far - do it, all in.


Andy.

I think you played this hand perfectly. I like jamming preflop with something that resembles a decent hand, but T3 is just too crappy, in the event that he has a hand. I don't think you can fold the flop. I think calling the flop is brutal. You're right, it only scares him if he's losing, and you give him a free shot with 89o and the like. You pay your money and you take your chance.