Poll: River value bet on nasty board

[DeathDonkey]

I've always wanted to do a poll, let's try one out. Who likes a value bet on the river vs a check behind? Opponent was typical in every way for party 0.50/1.

-DeathDonkey

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, MP2 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

[cockandbull]

i voted bet, but i changed my mind. i dont think you bet is going to be called by a worse hand 33% of the time.

[Vern]

I think he has Jx here. His use of the stop and go makes me read that he likes his hand and doesn't want you getting a discounted card on the turn by checking behind but that he is not on a draw. You raised his turn bet and he just called once it was heads up. He checked to you on the river, I think he calls down often enough with that jack top pair to make it a worth while bet.

[Trix]

Easy bet, what about his play would make you think that he made a better hand ?

call if he raises.

[btspider]

routine bet, call a raise.

seems like he has an uncertain top pair or two pair.

[DeathDonkey]

I guess this was too easy of a value bet situation to really warrant any discussion. That said, a nontrivial percentage of people voted check, so maybe it was worthwhile to tell them this is an easy value bet. I bet, he called with J9 and I win.

-DeathDonkey

[GrunchCan]

Hm, I had him on AJo...

[EliteNinja]

Easy bet.
I had him on J9 or J7 once I saw the bet on the turn.
And since he did not reraise the flop and just called, my guess was he called in order to bet out to try to protect his hand on the turn if a safe card came (non-spade). That signified that he was not on a draw and actually afraid of a spade. Therefore, I don't put him on the flush draw and can safely bet the river. Even if I did suspect a flush draw, I'd probably still bet out, but that's just me.

This COULD be what the guy was thinking, but the dude could also be a total chook who doesn't know what he's doing like most fish.

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
i voted bet, but i changed my mind. i dont think you bet is going to be called by a worse hand 33% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

where does the 33% figure come from?