KK vs. TAG

[jrobb83]

BB is 20/15 and aggressive postflop. UTG is LAG.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

[spydog]

I think I pop him on the turn. If he's playing overcards, there is no reason to think he's going to continue betting the river. If he's playing a pair, then I doubt he folds on this ragged board.

On the river, I think you have to call this 100% of the time HU. Although it sucked to get 3-bet, you are good more than 10% of the time.

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

Um...I never fold this.

What if he has QQ - TT?

What does he have that he's calling 2 bets in the BB. It's a possibility that he hit a set with 9's or maybe 8's, but I still think it's a bad fold.

I definitely think you need to raise the turn if you're not raising the flop, and if your plan is to just raise on the river, I think you have to call away the last BB.

I'd like to know what BB had, but I guess it's not possible.

[jrobb83]

Do you guys really think he would 3-bet the river with JJ or TT? I think this guy would cap QQ most of the time.

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

I'd like to know what hands you would put him on, to be calling 2 bets in the BB and then betting that flop. I assume 99 or 88.

Anyway, I'd say it's a definite possibility that he would 3-bet with JJ or even TT since they're overcards and you've been playing very passively since the flop.

I think calling off the last bet might have been worth it if only to find out what he had in the first place.

Also, like stated before, you win more than 10% of the time here.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you guys really think he would 3-bet the river with JJ or TT?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is another reason to call the last bet. This information could save/earn you a bet in later play. I'd like to know what hands he calls 2 cold from the blinds and then leads the flop against a preflop 3-betting TAG.

I'm expecting to see 88 or 99, but not entirely surprised to see TT or JJ here.

[spydog]

Ummmm..you hit submit 5 seconds before me. You win.

[jrobb83]

I just don't see why he would 3-bet the river with anything I beat. When he cold-calls the three-bet in the bb, I put him on a mid pocket pair, and maybe AA or suited broadways.

When he bets the flop it's clear to me he has a hand worth getting some chips in with since he doesn't want to get rid of the LAG. After LAG folds and I just call the flop, I'm assuming he puts me on a big ace. I don't want to loose a medium pocket pair on the turn, so I plan on raising the river, where laydowns are much more difficult.

My plan going into the river was to raise and fold to a 3-bet. This seemed like the best plan to me because he would call with whatever he was betting that I could beat: TT, JJ, maybe QQ, and only 3-bet with his set or JT. I really can't see how he can think is TT or JJ is good enough to 3-bet with after I raise that river.

Any other thoughts?

[Jeff W]

I would call getting 12.75:1. Often when you play a strong hand weakly, it encourages your opponents to play their medium strength hands strong. It's likely your opponent has 88 or 99(maybe even AA if he's tricky), but he could also have QQ-TT. I admit he would likely cap QQ-TT, but consider the following distribution of hands.

12 Times he has AA, 99, or 88.
1 Time he has KK-TT.

Given this distribution the river call is profitable. Are you that sure he has an overpair beat?