AK

I recently witness a hand in final table NL 5 player left. UTG goes all in with 4000 big blind everyone folds big blind calls with AK. UTG has Kc2c turns a 2 and wins knocking a solid player. two question 1 should AK have mucked..I don't think so UTG was ok player but not super tight. my second question comes from a debate with other players after wards...I've always thought AK was a 11-10 favorite over pocket pairs but I just read that pairs are a slight favorite over AK which is true??


BP

Yes, pairs are the 11:10 favorite against two over cards.

Not necessarily, sdplayer.

"I've always thought AK was a 11-10 favorite over pocket pairs but I just read that pairs are a slight favorite over AK which is true??"


All you need to know is that its a coin flip. Why people bother with such worries is beyond me.


Its about 50-50. If you worry about a few percent in a tournament, you arent thinking about the right things.

Pairs are only an 11:10 favourite vs two overcards, and only about a 51:49 favourite when the overcards are suited, but the overcards are

about three times more likely to improve when the

flop hits, viz., one of the overcards will pair about 30% of the time, whereas the pair will hit the set less than 12%.


In tournaments, it's a poor long- term strategy to push small edges such as two overs vs small pair, if that's the hand you can put your opponent on with certainty; David Sklansky's new book discusses this concept in detail, and is well worth buying.


In side games, those small edges are what make

the skilled player money over the long haul, so it's often wise to push there, dependent on many

things, e.g., how you view your opponent(s), how

they view you, and your image, to name several.

As per the article in the essay section:


22 is a small favorite over AKo. AKo is a pretty big favorite over JTs. JTs is a small favorite over 22.


Go fig.


2ndGoat

Mr. Sklansky I have read much of your work and greatly respect your opinion... but please don't leave me hanging on my question with a simple not necessarily..I realize that there are few absolute s in poker but please explain further...

I can't answer for David but I would make the following guess.


If the small pairs go All-in they may be a slight favorite over the AK. However if the small pairs go in for a raise, and betting occurs on subsequent streets, then the small pair can never know if they are up against a larger pair on the board and thus have to fold to the AK.


I.e. would you call with 1/2 of stack and a pair of treys when the board shows QcJcTc ?

e.g.


2s-2c: 49.92% 849322 wins 10775 splits 852207 losses

Ah-Kh: 50.08% 852207 wins 10775 splits 849322 losses


or the classic


2s-2c: 47.91% 807770 wins 25225 splits 879309 losses

Js-Tc: 52.09% 879309 wins 25225 splits 807770 losses


cu


Ignatius