Getting it in Good or Great

This is a hand from the Foxwoods $1500 NLHE Main event. The blind were $10-$25 with starting stacks of $3000. 10 minutes into the tournament. I have about $3300.

I was in early middle position with KK. There is one limper in front of me. I raise to $100. Jim Bucci,(T2965) a seasoned and grizzled circuit pro calls on the button. The blinds and the limper fold. . In my book, Jim is ABC textbook.


The flop comes Q 6 8 rainbow ( T260 in pot). A perfect flop for me. I lead for $150 and Jim immediately raises to $700. I stop and think. He flat called preflop, so he doesn’t have AA or KK. Jim would have raised on the button to isolate me or the early limper. QQ, JJ –22 he might call and see a flop. It was very unlikely he flopped a set because I think he would play it differently on this ragged board. As far as 7 9, 75, or 6 8, also very unlikely. He’s not that kind of player. This leaves only two hands AQ or KQ. I think he plays the KQ less aggressively, plus I have two kings. Now we’re looking at AQ. I was very certain this was his hand, given the clues in the hand.


Now here’s the real issue, how to play the hand. You have a dead read on your opponent and he’s drawing to 5 outs on the flop( about a 20% underdog). If I move over the top, a solid player lays down the hand most of the time. The raise to $700 defines my hand as well as his. He should know he’s beat or at best tied. Or I could flat call the $700 and if the turn isn’t an A or Q, I can push in and get called most of the time( or check call an aggressive opponent). The bet is just too funny looking. Note that all the cards that can come on the turn aren’t scary except for a K, everything else should get paid off( and now he’s a 10% underdog).


Here’s my question: In a tournament with tons of play, what is more correct; to get it in on the flop and try to win the already big pot or do you try to trap for all the chips on the turn? Do you risk the suck out or not? Both plays are correct, but which is optimal for tourney play. * This assumes the opponent is a solid player. With a weaker player it’s all in on the flop or turn anyways, so it doesn’t matter.

Jedi,


There are quite a few players that will just flat call with aces in late position or in the blinds hoping to play against just two people to win a big pot, so I don't think you can rule this out because I do it myself. Especially, if someone had raised. With queen or jacks you may get reraised. AK will either reraise or call. AQ will usually call. Smaller pairs will call hoping to make a set.


First you have to figure out if he puts you on AK. If you think this is what he puts you on and you feel sure that he has AQ I'd smooth call the flop bet. I figure if he raises that much he's either got top pair or has you beat already. Then I'd check the turn no matter what comes. See how much he bets on the turn and you should be able to make a good judgement.


Good Luck


Mark

I think the answer is in your question. Put it this way, if you are losing to Aces or a set then it doesn't matter whether you go all in now or bet the turn, you're going to lose it all anyway. If you're sure enough that he will pass a reraise now but call on the turn then by all means flat call now and bet any turn card except and Ace or a Queen.


There's no simple answer to your general question, it's always a case of balancing risk and reward properly according to the situation, as of the now. This time it is still very early in the tournament so survival considerations carry little weight.


Back your read and call.


Andy.

I know the player well. He doesn't have AA or KK. It is a mistake to not reraise with AA preflop especially when you have an early limper and early raiser. There's a good chance you can get it all in preflop.

The read is not what I was looking for. Assuming the dead read, what is the most correct play? To try and win with no showdown or try and bust'em on the turn.


Jason Viriyayuthakorn

Incidently, in a cash game I like option two, but tournies play different.

Jedi,


If you want no show down you move in on the flop. If you want him to become committed, wait for a blank on the turn, he's only got 5 outs, check it to him. The reason why I say this is he will feel more committed to the pot emotionally if he bets on the turn again.


Good Luck


Mark

If you're positive on the read, and know that he would fold to a reraise but put it in on turn, then this is not even a question. Of course you have to call: 10% of the times you'll loose T550, 10% of the times, you'll loose T2715, but 80% of the times you'll win T3215 for a total EV of T2245.


The hard part is to come up with the dead read in the first place, but if you're sure, any other play would be a terrible mistake.


cu


Ignatius

Gotta go with the smooth call here. Minimize the risk while maximising the gain. You can do the same on the turn if you are very confident in your read, and feel you have the conviction to fold if the killer card drops on the last.


One added benefit of this sort of play is that you look very good when you make it. A man not to be messed with can be a very good image to have in a tournament. I made pretty much exactly this play once recently and never had to defend a blind or raise (from me) until the final table.

Jedi, Does Jim know you as well as you you seem to know him? If not and you are positive about your read, I might push. This will look more like a weak AK steal than QQ or an overpair, especially if he has AQ. This may be the best way to get his chips into the pot. Calling and checking really look suspicious. If I had an AQ, I would be checking a blank on the turn and betting only another A or Q.

So what did you do and how did it work?

I reraised all in. I wanted to make him fold, but instead he beat me in the pot. He turned over AQ. Turn A River A. DOH.

In this situation I think trying to win about 1/3 of a stack risk free is the best course. You can cripple your opponent and reduce your own variance at the same time.

This is a very interesting thread and I am surprised to hear how it turned out.


There's nothing wrong with how you did play the hand, getting it all in as 80% favourite, but through your good analysis of the situation you found a better way to play it (call on the flop) and I'm still not sure why you didn't choose that option, for two reasons :


1) It seems to me that calling on the flop is actually the play which reduces your variance. Even if he is equally likely to call on flop or turn, you can get away from the hand if an A or a Q turns. And I would expect that most players would be if anything more likely to fold on the turn than the flop. So it is debatable which play actually reduces your variance. It depends on your read of what he will do at each decision point. However ...


2) This early in the tournament, the chips you are winning are worth very close to their "real" value. The reduction in value per chip of a large stack is small if not negligible at this stage. I think you should play the hand similar to how you would in a ring game, unless you feel you have a very big edge over the field (so you can find a better spot) and I doubt that that is the case in such a big tournament.


While sometimes the required play in a tournament can be markedly different from the ring game play, let's not forget that most of the time it isn't, especially in the early stages of a tournament.


Andy.

I reraised on the flop to let him know he's beat. If I lead at the pot:a. I'm bluffing b. I've got a hand.

Then when I get raised, Jim is telling me, " I have a queen or better." When I come over the top it means: a. I'm representing a hand that can beat a big queen b. I've got AA, KK, QQ,88,66 and you're beat c. We're tied with AQ.

So basically, he can only beat a bluff here.

I also thought the more likely fold is on the flop because of information with the raise, but he didn't stop and think. On the turn, he's looking at pot sized bet and will probably call.

To me, having chips early allows me to work my stack. I wanted to win the dead $1660 in the pot and not risk a loss that would force me to play slower.

Jedi,


What I'm getting at is if you are that sure of your read, by just calling on the flop you can get away from the hand if he hits an A or Q.


Let's consider the risk alone for a moment. You want to minimize the risk of losing virtually all your chips. If you go all-in on the flop you will lose 20% of the time when you are called. If you wait for a blank on the turn then you will only lose the rest of your chips 10% of the time (when you get rivered). The 10% of the time he turns A or Q you only lose 950 in total. To minimize the probability of losing all your chips, going all in pre-flop is correct only if he is twice as likely to fold on the flop as he would be on the turn. Does this make sense ?


It just seems a shame to me to bosh it all in when you know what your opponent has and he doesn't know what you have. Give yourself a chance to use your knowledge.


Andy.

Jedi - I was one table over from you when you were crippled. We played a couple hours of live pot limit together too.


With the dead read, its a matter of your personal gamble quotient. If you want to win the pot now for 1/3 of a stack, you must push in when you did. JB should fold there. Maybe he had an early flight or was on a tournament high from his earlier 1st place?


Any thoughts about making it 1400-2100 instead of 3300 on the flop? Advantages, disadvantages?


Sorry/Relieved (since I went to T1) to see you go so soon.

One-potato.


-MM

I think in this spot, it's all in or call. A raise somewhere in between leaves me in a bind. If he calls and draws, his pot odds improve and I'm crippled if he hits. Plus if he reraises all in over the top of my small reraise, his pot odds again get better.

J