To call or not to call?

6 handed semi-final table of PL HE tourney. Blinds are 1k - 1k, I have 10k, with about 140k in play. Third to act I have 99. Pass to me and I raise to 4k. All pass to big blind who is chip leader with maybe 30k. He re-raises. I'm getting 3.5 to 1 for my last 6k, so I have to be almost 100% certain he has a bigger pair not to be getting pot odds to call (i rate the bigger pair at maybe 60 -70 %). I'm not particularly pleased about calling my last chips, but with the pot odds, a chance to get a decent stack for the final table, and not really wanting to get left with only 6k, I feel I have to call.


As ever, most grateful for any opinions on this situation.


Thanks


Dave Veitch

With T10k, you have effectively decided to go in with the hand the moment you raised.


> i rate the bigger pair at maybe 60 -70 %


Unless you have some tell to back this up, I don't think that the chip leader would need a premium hand to play back against a possible steal from the button here, and since you only have T6000 left, he would re-raise with almost any hand he decided to play.


But even if your read is true, you still stand to win the hand 1/3 of the time and have an easy call with 5:2 pot odds.


cu


Ignatius

While I agree he has pot odds, so in a ring game, you have to call.

But in a tourney situation, I believe the value (utility) of each lost chip is greater than the value of each gained chip.

If he was down to his last 2 or 3K, he has to go for it. But with 6K still remaining, he is still in the tourney.


I don't know the opponent well enough, but i don't think he'd want to risk 1/3 of his stack without very good cards. If you think it is 70% or great, i think you can feel fine with folding as those remaining 6K chips allow you to wait for a better situation.


Also though, I don't know much about your game. Are you really strong when behind and feel confident coming back? Or do you feel like you need to be among the chip leaders to have a shot, and if not, you are fine with being out quick?


So I believe a lot more comes into the situation.

The worst it could be is a 65% chance of a higher pair - 16 ways he could have AK compared to 30 ways he could have an overpair, but even at that you do not strictly have a call, but the fact that you have only 3 circuits of the table left if you fold needs to be considered. If you add in AQ - certainly possible, you have a call.