Are you convinced enough to fold?

[Saborion]

Recently sat down, so no reads.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO caps</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (14.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls.

What do you put them on? Especially the CO.
And how do you proceed?

[Trix]

I guess so, I dont think you will see TT-88 here very often.

MP has anything from bottom-2.pair to a OESD or gutshot. Could be 7x too I guess if he is passive, but not that often.

[Saborion]

Well, say he'll play AA-QQ and TT this way. 3:1 I'm behind plus I'll draw out every now and then. Bad fold, very bad fold. If he'll play 99 the same way, then it's even worse.

Still think it's a fold?

[Harv72b]

I'd call down. I've seen plenty of people play AK this way, let alone AA-QQ, and with the pot as big as it is you don't have to win this hand very often to have a +EV.

My general rule of thumb with medium-high pockets is I'll call down with 1 overcard on the board, so long as there isn't 4 to a flush or straight or something. When you get to 2 or more overcards, then I'm more apt to give the raiser the benefit of the doubt.

This might also be a hole in my play, I don't know. I've been meaning to look into that in more detail.

Edit to add: I would put CO on AA, but still call down for the reasons above.

Without a read, I'd put MP1 on overcards or a smaller PP like 88 or 99. He's just tagging along for the ride &amp; hoping for a miracle.

[The T.A.]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, say he'll play AA-QQ and TT this way. 3:1 I'm behind plus I'll draw out every now and then. Bad fold, very bad fold. If he'll play 99 the same way, then it's even worse.

Still think it's a fold?

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed.

I'd just call down from the turn, onwards.

[Saborion]

You really find people capping with AKo on the flop in spots like this at 2/4?

[joker122]

your effective odds to get to a showdown are 9:1 against an unknown. you are def. good here 1 in 9 times. plus, as you said, you get to suckout ~5% of the time, so you've got some implied odds there.

[JinX11]

Call down and laugh as he turns over something surprising like AK.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
You really find people capping with AKo on the flop in spots like this at 2/4?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't. While I am sure there are a few maniacs out there at this level who do, I don't really see this in online $2/4.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
You really find people capping with AKo on the flop in spots like this at 2/4?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe capping the flop without a pair was a bit much, but I have seen AK 3-bet &amp; call a cap without pairing the flop, and cap preflop many times. There are just people out there who seem to think of AK as a made hand along the lines of AA or KK, and play it much the same way in the early stages of a hand.

Obviously I'm not going to put an unknown on AKo in this situation, but I'm not going to completely rule it out as a possibility, either.

[Yeknom58]

Hard to say, I know lots of players that would 3-bet preflop with 99 and play the flop exactly the same way. As for the hang-arounder they could have a pretty wide range considering the pot has gotten large and bozos with any PP or overcards/runner draws will see a turn.

Now on the flop I'm not a big fan of your 3-bet. If your plan was to 3-bet a raggy flop I would have just capped preflop not called. Granted there are lots of players who would play 88-TT in this fashion but more likely it's QQ-AA so after the flop raise and all the cold calls I'm probably just calling down as in all likleyhood my pot equity has turned to poop.

I don't think I can fold the pot has gotten just silly and if I spike a J on the river I bet you can get in a CR and get paid in 2 places in addition to the fact that you might still be ahead I'm not folding.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
and cap preflop many times.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh, but I cap AKo preflop.

I just didn't think they capped the flop, hence why I got curious. =)

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
Now on the flop I'm not a big fan of your 3-bet. If your plan was to 3-bet a raggy flop I would have just capped preflop not called.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm...
Preflop I'm a bit afraid of any A, K or Q on the board. Neither showed up, and I often see people raise AK in a spot like that, so I went ahead and 3-bet. Especially since he may have had TT as well.

[blackaces13]

Against an unknown I think you have to call down. There are enough maniacs out there to make calling down with overpair good IMO. If you know the guy is reasonable then he has you beat with a higher pair.

[Yeknom58]

If you're going to read a raise on a raggy flop by a pre-flop 3 bettor as AK thats fine just cap it preflop, it's esentially the same thing and you get more "info" post flop by capping preflop. You cap preflop and he still raises that's totally different than calling a 3 bet preflop and you get raised.

[spydog]

I think I bet the turn with the intention of folding to a CR from UTG+2 or MP1. If CO raises, I'm content to call it down against an unknown.

[bernie]

Easy...

[ QUOTE ]
Recently sat down, so no reads

[/ QUOTE ]

No reads. I have an overpair to the board. Im not folding.

[ QUOTE ]
What do you put them on?

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on what? One thing is i'd be suprised if anyone had a 7. Other than that? Who knows.

CO probably has an overpair to you, but you don't know this player well enough to lay it down. I've seen players go ape-[censored] with 88/99/TT in this spot quite a bit thanks to helmuths book. Though that style has simmered a bit, it's still there.

No way am i folding this.

b

[MarkL444]

i agree with the responses to call down. this pots way too big. i also want to add that folding the best hand here would be a good way to put yourself on tilt real fast. so if you consider these calls a little "loose", it might be worth it.

[sthief09]

I don't have an issue with not wanting to fold, but if you're not goign to fold, I see no reason to 3-bet the flop

[sthief09]

I wouldn't have 3-bet the flop, and I would've capped preflop. Once I capped preflop and bet and got raised the flop, I would've just called down, but hated it

and if you really wanted to be sure, you could've bet the turn. if raised, you're beat

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
but if you're not goign to fold, I see no reason to 3-bet the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

There might be some value to it if you are ahead, however, if i'm only calling the raise, the turn is going 2 bets on a 'safe' card. Whether i bet out, or c/r. You're not protecting anything on the flop by 3 betting since they just coldcalled the first time.

Clarky had a great thread on this type of hand in mid stakes. "75-150 hand' i think it was. Though it was a little different table texture.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
and if you really wanted to be sure, you could've bet the turn. if raised, you're beat

[/ QUOTE ]

You still can't be sure since you don't have any reads. Granted, it's very likely, but im still not folding. Im betting out on the turn hoping to get it HU.

b

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to read a raise on a raggy flop by a pre-flop 3 bettor as AK thats fine just cap it preflop, it's esentially the same thing and you get more "info" post flop by capping preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? I thought I said that I often see people raise AK in that spot, not that I put him on AK. The combination of AK, AA-TT made me 3-bet it. I didn't cap preflop since there are 3 overcards that is scary. When none of those arrive at the flop, if he has AK/AQ, I'm in a very good shape.

[ QUOTE ]
You cap preflop and he still raises that's totally different than calling a 3 bet preflop and you get raised.

[/ QUOTE ]
He's less likely to have AK in that situation, yes, but he'll still have it sometimes, no?

[Saborion]

This post sure show how bad a player I am huh.
I thought capping preflop wasn't a good idea, but Pokercalculator just showed me I was wrong.

Not sure it's of any interest since you would've capped preflop, but say you mis-clicked and didn't. Now why wouldn't you 3-bet the flop? Am I wrong when I think that my opponents play is AK more often than it's a lower pair like 99? (TT I think play the same way, and I really doubt 88 would 3-bet prelfop unless way overaggro. I would say 99 needs to be aggro too, but I'll draw the line there)

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
I just didn't think they capped the flop, hence why I got curious. =)

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, had this hand happen on Stars earlier tonight (going from memory because my mail doesn't like Stars or vice versa...whatever):

Hero is on the button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Folded to CO. CO raises, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 7J9 rainbow
BB checks, CO bets, Hero raises, BB folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: 3
bet/call

River: Another 7
bet/call

CO shows A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif

[earlofduke]

Hey harv72b you haven't bailed yet? Aren't you known as a quitter?

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess so, I dont think you will see TT-88 here very often.

MP has anything from bottom-2.pair to a OESD or gutshot. Could be 7x too I guess if he is passive, but not that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Trix. Looking at the hand, i think Hero is beat.

But I don't know that I'm capable of making a laydown /images/graemlins/mad.gif

I hate it, because like the hero, I know in my gut I'm beat, but damn it, I have an overpair!

Hope it worked out, but it's not looking good.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif