Big Pots

[illguitar]

Pacific Poker 5/10. Hero is in the SB 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Raised to 10 called. Capped by BB and UTG +2. Hero calls. 6 players see flop. Pot is $120.

Flop comes 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero bets into flop. Raised and reraised. 2 folds.

Hero calls 10 in $150 pot. Cold call and a call. Pot is at 170.

Turn is 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero checks, check, check, bet, Hero raises, call, call, call.

River is K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero bets, call, fold, call.

Hero wins pot of $280.

I was BERATED by two players at my table for calling on the flop. To me, folding is ridiculous. I was getting 15-1 in a huge pot!

Help me understand...

[grandgnu]

Your biggest mistake I think was after the raise and re-raise on the flop to your bet. Your 5/5 at that point is trash and should be tossed. You got lucky, congrats, it won't happen all that often.

[trumpman84]

Preflop. You've already called $10 and it's $10 back to you, so even though you pretty much know you're behind a bigger pair unles, but you try to flop the set.

I don't see the reason in betting out on the flop...preflop capped 6 ways and I'm sure there's a bigger pair than fives and you aren't getting the overpairs to fold. When it's raised and re-raised back to you..that's when I drop this hand. You definetly drawing to 2 outs and may be drawing dead to a made set....are tens that unlikely a hand?

Turn and River are standard.

Anyway, those are my thoughts on the hand.

[illguitar]

This is a reply to the first 2 suggestions...

but doesn't the amount of money in the pot make folding a
-EV play. In rare situations, I find that chasing in a limit game is a very profitable play. I wonder what Ed Miller would think?

[illguitar]

Using Petriv's Hold Em Odds Book, 2 outs with 2 cards to come translates to about 9%, or 23-2 odds. Therefore the call on the flop raises was correct as I was getting 15-1 on the call. Again, of COURSE I was extremely lucky, but my suckout seems to be justified by pot odds.

Thoughts?

[chabibi]

your pot odds should be played to the next card not to the river the odds hitting your 5 on the turn 22:1 and you were getting 15:1 thats -EV

[EliteNinja]

The call preflop is fine because of your pot odds.
But calling the re-raise was bad because you could easily be behind to pocket tens as that hand is a likely candidate with the pot capped preflop. A set of sixes is also a possibility. The raise and re-raise on the flop could signify that someone may have flopped a set, especially on a ragged board. But depending on the texture of the game, it could also be a value-raise/re-raise by AT to try to knock people out of the big pot (thinking "I should maximize my chances of winning by knocking ppl out on this big a pot.").

So even if 15-1 on your 2 outs may look like it's +EV, it may not be since people with top pair (tens) or second pair (sixes) who also have 2 outs to draw out on you to beat you.

Easy fold on the flop.

[trumpman84]

illguitar...if you are counting your odds based on both the turn AND river cards, I think it's fair to also add in the fact that that if you chase to the river, you are likely to call at least one big bet on the turn and maybe more depending on if the other two get into a raising war again.

...that is...if you aren't already drawing dead.

[AngryCola]

The other posters are correct, you are computing your odds incorrectly. That's a good book you are quoting from, though. I recommend studying it a bit more to gain as much as you can from it.

[patrick dicaprio]

the only mistake i see is preflop when you shoudl have folded. other than that you played it fine. this reminds me of mason's hand where he won with a pair of fours or something in a huge pot.

pat

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
the only mistake i see is preflop when you shoudl have folded. other than that you played it fine. this reminds me of mason's hand where he won with a pair of fours or something in a huge pot.

pat

[/ QUOTE ]

This is completely backwards.

I'll let others elaborate. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

EDIT - Although I still don't understand his preflop line. The result is that 6 players see the flop for a cap, though. That's just fine. He is getting his 5:1, as you need with a middle to low pair.

[illguitar]

Wow...I really felt like I made the right decision on this hand. However, I refuse to be the one guy that makes a post and argues his case against overwhelming opposition. I may very well have been wrong to take it as far as I did.

One question...why compute odds for the turn only? When you look at your pot odds for a flush draw you are looking at about a 35% success rate by the river. If you are only looking at the turn then it is much, much more often incorrect to bet with the draw, and very incorrect to call with the draw even in a multiway pot. To me, this doesn't make sense. I understand that you will have to re-evaluate your pot odds on the turn, but in all honesty, in a large pot, with a flush draw it wouldn't matter how many bets I had to call to see the river if I was drawing to the nuts. While I understand that a set of 5s would hardly be the nuts. I was playing in a VERY weak game. I put everyone on big cards except the reraiser who I'm sure had a high pocket pair.

Not that any of this justifies anything. I consider you my panel of experts and I will take what you have to say graciously and appreciatively. I learned how to play about 6 months ago and I still have a lot to learn. Thanks for your input. BUT let me just finish by saying that I truly believe that many good, good hold em players are unable to take their game up a level because the too often fold in big pots on the river. The fact that almost no one has chosen the answer "MP folding on the river" as the biggest mistake is crazy to me. To me there is no greater mistake. Most fold because they are SURE that they are beat. Let me add, that in this game, there are no certainties. Yet many of these players will make this mistake over and over while calling down the river in small to medium sized pots, to keep the other player honest, or because they may be bluffing. Calling on the river is mostly about the money in the pot, and not the cards in your hand.

I leave it open to major criticism which I am sure will come. Thanks guys, you're the best.

-Daver

[AngryCola]

No need to get worked up about it, or anything like that. I doubt you will get much harsh criticism. Quick question for you, do you own Theory of Poker, by Sklansky?

[MEbenhoe]

Despite what most people are saying, besides the flop bet you played this hand fine. Preflop you have clear odds to call. On the flop there is no way you bet this, however if you're getting pretty good odds such as 15:1 when it comes back to you, you can call here because if you hit your set there will be enough people in the pot that this is a +EV play even given the chance of set over set.

Despite what EliteNinja said, someone with merely top pair or middle pair does not have two outs to beat your set if you would hit, because the card that would make them trips gives you a full house.

The check-raise on the turn is a good play and when you don't get 3 bet here you should be pretty sure your set is good, as any hand beating you here should and almost always would 3bet. The K on the river is a scare card as someone could have had KK, but this is a spot where you still bet and just suck it up if it turns out you're beat by KK.

[AngryCola]

Really? So basically with 15:1 you should call on a ragged flop with a unimproved pocket pair? It's a pretty close play, so I guess I can see that.

Since the chances of improving on the turn are actually 23:1, you need some real implied odds to justify that, and he barely got them.

Still, this would be a very rare instance of profitably (barely) drawing to a 2-outer.

Btw, I want to mention that I, personally, never said he did the wrong thing in this hand, because I knew it was pretty close. I only posted because I saw that he was computing the odds the wrong way. So, even if he made the right play, he might have been doing it for the wrong reasons.

I do that sometimes. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

EDIT- I guess I did make a comment about how I felt the one guy had a backwards opinion about it, which implies that I thought folding on the flop was correct. I just thought the other line of logic was wrong. The preflop call is a pretty standard, most of the time I think it's a bad idea to draw to a 2 outer. With the way the flop action goes down... I just don't know.

[Louie Landale]

Calling Pf is routine since there are 5 opponents and it doesn't cost full price; you are getting 7:1 and need 10:1 to cover the times you lose, and you'll clearly make up the difference if you flop a set. Once you make the marginal first call, calling the cap is a no-brainer.

Betting out is rediculous, unless you know for sure that it WILL stop them from getting upedy with no pair, AND they may get upedy if you don't bet, AND you think they are all getting updedy before the flop. That's a lot to hope for. But with all that action its CLEAR you need a set. Calling the flop reraise cold getting 15:1 is pretty darn marginal. But you DID get 8 more bets in so you won 23 for you 1. But you need 22:1 and you need to account for the times you snag your set and still lose, such as to KK, back-door diamonds, or a straight.

Your statement "getting 15:1 in a huge pot" is a redundant and a bit rediculous: the "15" part IS the "huge pot" part. If it was 3 bets to you the pot would be "huger" but you'd only be getting 11:1. And the odds is the key feature there.

- Louie

PS. They almost always are telling you how they feel, not what they think.l

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling Pf is routine since there are 5 opponents and it doesn't cost full price; you are getting 7:1 and need 10:1 to cover the times you lose, and you'll clearly make up the difference if you flop a set

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for some clarification Louie, where do you get the "10:1 to cover the times you lose" bit?

Excuse my ignorance. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Since it's 7.5:1 to flop a set or better, I thought that was the only number to consider with a pair like 55.

[AngryCola]

I might not be able to reply to anything for a couple days, so I'll just post a follow-up to why I asked you that question.

If you have TOP, read the section on effective odds. That will help you to make 2 cards to come odds based decisions. Still effective odds are often just estimates, and with a multiway pot it becomes harder to estimate the bets you will have to call. That's why it's usually best to use your odds for 1 card to come, but you should still factor in your best estimation of your implied odds.

In your hand, the decision is very close. If I had to make a solid "yes or no" choice, it would be to fold the flop. There is some doubt about the implied odds being high enough. It's close to a break-even play. When I'm faced with a decision getting very close odds AND the possibility that I'm already drawing almost dead (runner-runner straight or quads), I fold.

[illguitar]

No, I'm asking for it for Christmas. I have read Lee Jones Low Limit Hold Em, Caro's Poker Tells, Supersystem, a couple of odds books, a couple of tournament books, and HPFAP 3 times. I have a lot of reading left to do.

[illguitar]

Betting the flop really was ridiculous. Although, my thought process was that it would certainly be raised and maybe reraised to knock out some hands. This is the wrong logic to have and I see that now for sure. Thanks for the advice boys.

[trumpman84]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that almost no one has chosen the answer "MP folding on the river" as the biggest mistake is crazy to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily without having of any idea of what he had. He could've flopped a gutshots straight draw + backdoor flush with a suited connector like 98 and getting correct odds to chase. When it didn't hit on the river, I think it's pretty safe to say you can save a bet with 9 high. So maybe it was a bad play if he folded jacks or queens on the river when the king fell, but without knowing what he had, it's hard to tell if he made a bad play.

[MHarris]

The flop bet is clearly the biggest mistake you made in this hand. Your line should have been check-fold if it were 2 back to you after your check, but if it were only one, a call is definitely in order getting close to 30:1. Since you did bet the flop, the pot is bloated, and calling getting 15:1 immediately with the possibility of 2 more cold-callers behind you is fine, since you're still getting god implied odds. You also have a backdoor straight draw.
The turn and river were well-played.
Your flop call after the cap is fine because you're getting some nice implied odds when you hit your hand.

[banditbdl]

Pre-flop calls are both fine, but the flop is an absolute disaster. You should be checking the flop and praying one of the preflop raisers slows down so you won't be facing two bets when it comes back around. If it is 2+ bets coming back to you after you check the flop you're gonna have to fold because you'll only be getting 14 or 15 to 1, and you need to be getting about 20-1 or so to pull a profit once implied odds and the odds you hit a set and still lose are factored in.

[illguitar]

Will someone please explain to me, as I asked earlier, why you take the odds for a flush draw or straight draw to the river on the flop, but not this? I am assuming that you guys look for 2-1 to call a flush draw right? That gives you 33% and it will hit roughly 35% of the time. However, if you take it only to the turn I think it hits, sorry from memory, about 19% of the time meaning that you should have roughly 4-1 odds to call the flop. This seems wrong to me. Help?

[trumpman84]

If you plan on chasing your set to the river, and your basin gyour odds off the river, then you should calculate your odds based on the fact that you'll have to call 1 or 2...maybe more big bets on the turn to see the river if they get into a raising war.

[Schneids]

If you have a magic 8-ball and know neither of these players have a higher set or will hit a higher set on the turn/river, the flop call is fine if we know both players have overpairs and will not give up their hands, plus if we know the flop action will not end up capped (thus further cutting into our odds)...

Getting 15-1 odds on a 22-1 hit means we need to make up more than 7SBs when we hit... a turn c/r with two callers is 8BBs, and then some more river action too... So mathematically it's easily a +EV call if you know all of the above.

So if you know ALL of these things, you can call two more cold.

You can't though since you have no idea if it's gonna be capped, you have no idea if you're already drawing to perfect perfect, and you have no idea if your hand will hold up at the river if you do turn a set.

Plus making this flop call means a duddy turn card may convince you to call yet again on the turn, which will almost always be a bad idea.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I was BERATED by two players at my table for calling on the flop. To me, folding is ridiculous. I was getting 15-1 in a huge pot!

[/ QUOTE ]
The biggest mistake of this hand was to berate you for making the common, lucrative error of calling with an unimproved low pocket pair in a multiway pot. Do not educate the fish when they call without odds and hit. Cheer them on.

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling the flop reraise cold getting 15:1 is pretty darn marginal.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like your overall analysis, but I don't agree with this part. I think only one poster has noted that hero also has a backdoor straight draw. If hero has ~3.5 outs, calling is clearly correct. Is there a reason to discount these extra outs in this case?

[AngryCola]

I'm not sure if you were talking about me, but I diid mention the backdoor straight draw at one point.

Honestly, the hand is hard for me to judge.

I don't really know who is doing the betting/rasing or much of the preflop action. The backdoor straight draw is there, but is your set going to be good if you even hit it? I need to know more about the action in this hand to make a better read. I wouldn't be surprised if someone with a set of fours was the upset opponent. I know your cards are live if someone actually had a set of fours, but that's not my point. I think in a pot this multiway, with some of the action that apparently went down, I would have to lean towards folding because of the chance that I could be drawing dead. Of course, if I actually made a set on the flop, I wouldn't live in constant fear of set over set, but I worry a little more when I'm drawing to one and the pot is that multiway with heavy action. But I'm still lacking enough information on the action to really get the feel of the action.

If you are drawing dead, all you have is your backdoor straight draw, which isn't worth very much. I don't discount the straight draw as much as the set outs.

[k_squared]

[ QUOTE ]
Will someone please explain to me, as I asked earlier, why you take the odds for a flush draw or straight draw to the river on the flop, but not this? I am assuming that you guys look for 2-1 to call a flush draw right? That gives you 33% and it will hit roughly 35% of the time. However, if you take it only to the turn I think it hits, sorry from memory, about 19% of the time meaning that you should have roughly 4-1 odds to call the flop. This seems wrong to me. Help?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your intuition is correct. You shouldn't treat these situations differently. It is both correct to say that after flopping a flush draw you will hit a flush 35% of the time by the river, and that you will catch a set 10% of the time when you don't hit on the flop. Yet to correctly use those odds means that you need to correctly extrapolate how the hand will play out over the next two rounds. If you can do this without error then you would be justified to use those odds... BUT that is a very difficult thing to do in a multi way pot, especially one that was capped pre-flop and three bet on the flop. To calculate the odds the pot will be giving you on the river you have to be able to say how much money you will have to put in and also how much will then be in the pot. Yet, doing so accurately would mean knowing whether or not your field of opponents will bet, call, raise, or fold. The situation then can vary from you having to call no more bets to catch your set (no one bets) to having to call 4 more big bets [which is 8 small bets] to catch your set on the river. The odds then vary from you getting infinite pot odds (not having to pay anything to win) to having to pay $55 for the chance at a pot that would be at most $295 in which case the pot is laying odds of less than 6 to 1. So, a huge spectrum of possibilities exist in which the odds for each situation dramatically change based on HOW YOUR OPPONENTS PLAY. Therefore to simplify the decision making process, and hence the need to guess about what your opponenets will do using the odds for whether or not that particular bet/call are justified serves to make the evaluation something which can in fact be done accurately (i.e. without the huge range of possible outcomes). Is it justified to call this bet as a result of the odds I will be getting if I make my hand on the next card (taking implied odds into account... which also means thinking about whether or not another player will re-raise the turn and force you to put more money into the pot...). If you decide yes and then are faced with another decision, either because of more raises in that round, or the next one you can re-evaluate. At least now though it is a decision you can make based on knowledge can reasonably deduce...

One other comment... calling the 2 bets back to you on the flop you also needed to consider the chances of the original re-raiser capping it. Because if he caps it then you would be faced with paying a total of $15 for $180 which is much worse than $10 for $150 and based on the texture of the hand as described that would have been a reasonable action by this player. If you make the call based on your pot odds because you don't think he will raise... and he does raise you must of course call, but that doesn't make your call one that has +EV it rather makes it one with with less -EV because you are now in a situation where over the course of the round you have paid $20 for a chance at $180... and in actuality you paid $15 for a chance at $170... the only reason the pot odds existed for you to call is because you made a mistake to create those odds in an artificial way (i.e. with your own money!!!) These odds are not so good when you look at it with some perspective. While you made a borderline decision to call the $10 it was only even made possible because of mistakes you made earlier.

Finally, so I think you are right... both with flushes and with small pairs you have to consider the odds on that particular street, especially when faced with a field of opponents. In the case of a nut flush or nut straight draw you might also be getting extra outs from backdoor draws, over cards etc. All these factor into a very complicated picture of how many outs you have... with an under pair it isn't complicated at all! you have 2 outs AT MOST and really less than that given the possibility of an over set and draws that will beat you.

-Good Luck... and I hope that I have satisfactorily explained (at least as I understand it) why you should look at the odds one card at the time

K_squared

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
One other comment... calling the 2 bets back to you on the flop you also needed to consider the chances of the original re-raiser capping it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great point.

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
...is your set going to be good if you even hit it?

[/ QUOTE ]
Against 2 opponents holding TT-AA, it will be good ~70% of the time. But the action described (which is a little hard to follow) could result from a wider range of hands than this, so the actual percentage will be higher. I don't see any reason to significantly discount these outs.

[AngryCola]

I do, but we will simply have to agree to disagree. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I don't see how you can eliminate hands like 66 and 44 from this hand. Again, if I had more positional information, it would be easier to determine this sort of thing. No matter how you slice it, this is a close hand to call, IMHO.

[k_squared]

my point is really that it the decision is only 'close' because of a of a mistake that was made which then provided a situation in which it became a 'close' call. Betting the flop is the key mistake as far as I see it in so far as it kind of commits him to a pot he should want to get away from (i.e. makes it numerically reasonable to call). And in the end the mistake was a result of misunderstanding how the pot-odds relate to decision making. If I have 55 preflop I want to get in for 1 bet, I don't want to be raised and I certainly don't want to be faced with a cap. That all points to the potential for lots of pocket pairs or strong drawing hands, and as a whole my hand has shrunk up considerably... EVEN when you hit the set unless the board is perfect... i.e. no A,K,Q,J, no 2 flushed board, no 2 straightened board you could be in trouble. At the very least because you are playing in a hand that was capped pre-flop it is more likely that you are behind. Then compounding the situation, the pot is more than large enough to justify many drawing hands (including inside ones) calling down at least the turn and probably the river. And if the pot-odds justify these calls that means your hand is vulnerable to draws which will beat your 'made' hand a significant percentage of the time. Not to mention that if someone has a bigger set you are going to lose big! If faced with this situation (having made the initial bet) I would play the hand, but cautiosly, and with the knowledge that I am probably trying to minimize the long term loss that will result from playing in this situation. Which isn't to say you fold, but just to say you play (and potentially play strongly) to win when you are ahead, but with the knowledge that you got caught having to play a hand that is probably not +EV.

Another fact to consider which makes this a folding situation is that of position. He is out of position which means he will have a harder time making up the disparity between the actual pot-odds and the implied pot-odds... it is harder to maximize your hands value when you have to act first. Do you bet and not get in a check-raise? or do you check and hope someone bets? Another reason to make a borderline hand one that should be folded.

In fact, I might not have played this hand at all because of the position depending on my sense of the game. And most importantly the rasier. Calling raises should be done carefully even with a lot of people in the pot because it is MORE likely that some of them have quality hands with which they are calling/making raises.

-K_squared

[napawino]

[ QUOTE ]
Will someone please explain to me, as I asked earlier, why you take the odds for a flush draw or straight draw to the river on the flop, but not this? I am assuming that you guys look for 2-1 to call a flush draw right? That gives you 33% and it will hit roughly 35% of the time. However, if you take it only to the turn I think it hits, sorry from memory, about 19% of the time meaning that you should have roughly 4-1 odds to call the flop. This seems wrong to me. Help?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a common misunderstanding. You should be using the odds at THIS decision point, not including all the future decision points – unless there will be no more decisions.

So… If you were to go all-in for your last $10 on the flop call, you’re going to see the river anyway, so you should consider the odds to the river. (~11-1 for the set in this case, ~2-1 for a flush, ~2.5-1 for an open-ender, etc.)

But… Since you’re going to have to pay more to see the river if you miss on the turn, you have two choices:
1) Count only the odds for the turn. 15-1 pot odds; 22-1 odds of hitting or
2) Count all the future bets in your odds & use the “odds to the river”. You might estimate a cap on the flop, two bets on the turn ($25), so your odds will be something like: $25 (eventually) into a pot of $240 by the end of the turn, or a little less than 10-1. Of course this involves a lot of assumptions and introduces the possibility that everyone will fold but one on the turn – killing your odds. It also ignores the fact that you may be drawing nearly dead on the flop & that your 5 may give someone a better hand or redraws. (Probably not likely here.)

This same analysis would hold for all draws.

Although it would be a whole other discussion, you have to also consider implied odds – the odds considering the money not yet in the pot that someone will pay you when you do hit and they don’t fold. That is very read-dependent, but 55 should be fairly disguised on this board if you do hit it.

In general you can add something for every “calling station will pay me till the bitter end” player to account for implied odds, but I’m sure others will have different opinions about exactly how to count this. The No-Limit Forum will have much more detailed discussions on implied odds relating to the stack sizes of your opponents & the relative disguise of your hand if you hit. Look there if you’re interested in a more advanced, detailed discussion.

Napawino

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can eliminate hands like 66 and 44 from this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
These seemed like relatively unlikely holdings for the pf raisers. If these hands are possible, so are many others. And if that's the case, then a set of 5's will be good even more often. But if you restrict them to pocket pairs, your set is still good ~67% of the time (against just these two opponents).

[ QUOTE ]
...but we will simply have to agree to disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hardly ever happens. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[AngryCola]

He has three opponents on the flop, after the other 2 fold.

6 players see flop - 2 fold - the hero = 3 remaining opponents... no?

This is one of the reasons I wish I had a little bit better information about this hand. I also think one of the other posters made a good point about being out of position here, and how it could be capped behind him, thus titlting his odds down even more.

Look, you guys can make this call if you want and MAYBE pick up some razor thin profits, but I just don't see why it's worth it. ::shrug:: For all the reasons discussed in this thread, it is very marginal.

Discretion is the better part of valor. (good poker advice for marginal situations)

[AngryCola]

**NOTE** I see what you were saying about the "two players". Sorry, I was being dense. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[illguitar]

k squared...Thank you so much! I really understood that. That was a major help. I would have thought that I knew this stuff better if you would have asked me, but I guess I needed some help on this. I appreciate your thorough help and analysis of my play. One last question to bother you with...how should I compute my odds of a backdoor flush or straight draw? If I have 2 outs from and underpair and a backdoor flush or straight draw...how many outs do you call that? Is it still 2? That's how I have been doing it and just using those as sort of a bonus. Mostly this is just to help me learn as in most cases I won't make exact calculations at the table, but by practice these types of things become inherent. Much appreciated. Thanks.

Daver

[Rook80]

The odds of getting the 5 if you are going to see both the turn and river are 15 to 1. But you cost to the river doubles so you need to figure that into the implied odds. You should be getting about 16.5 to 1 if you were planning to see to this to the river. If you were going to fold if you didn't hit the turn then you need 22 to 1 odds.

[illguitar]

Thanks to everyone for your help, I definitely see everything much more clearly now. That hand was played on Pacific Poker (NOTORIOUSLY bad players), at a table with above 60% of players seeing the flop at a 5/10 game. I was wide eyed at a big pot and was blinded a bit. I was thinking in terms of the short term EV of hitting my hand, versus not hitting and I felt like it was worth a go. I was not thinking about the long-term EV. Now I understand that always playing a hand this way can be -EV. Thanks for the explanations