Missed Opportunity?

No Limit Holdem. Typical 5 person payout. We are down to two tables each with 6 players. Blinds are at $250/500, but due to go up $500/1000 very shortly. Our table has been playing raise and take it (with and occassional reraise and take it) for at least 45 minutes. The only reason we are down to 6 is that several players have been moved to the other table. Stacks range from about $3000 to maybe $8000. I have the $3000 after posting the SB.


Solid player with about $5000 raises to $1500 (2nd to act). All fold to me with 66. What is my play? He has laid down hands to a reraise previously and I feel that he would release his medium aces as well as most of his smaller pairs.


Normally I would fold this hand, but with the blinds going up, It would be easy for me to become shortstacked and be forced to call in the same situation, but with a much lesser hand. In point of fact this is exactly what happened and I was eliminated. Given this table would anyone recommend folding and pushing 1st in with any holdings in the next two hands (this turned out to be my only chance to be first in).

I have only played in a dozen or so No Limit Tournaments, but have found myself in this same situation several times, and have usually opted for waiting.


Almost invairably I found myself in the same situation as you did, not getting an ppourtunity to be the first one in, and having to play an even worse hand and/or situation, or getting blinded out.


I am changing my strategy and with less than 10 times the Big Blind will be moving in my stack these situations.


In your particular case you will probably get called, as most players are not going to throw their hand away with amost half of their stack involved. Hopefully he will not have a bigger pair and you will be a small favorite to get doubled up.


Bill F.

You should push in here if there's even a remote chance that he'd fold 2 overcards for T1750 more (and probably even if he won't).


Assuming that you actually suceed to steal the blinds on the next hand, this would still leave you with only T3750 and you would need to get lucky again if you want to survive the upcoming 500-1000 blinds, while with T5250 or T7000, you're in much better shape and can be more selective before you make your next move.


cu


Ignatius

"Hopefully he will not have a bigger pair and you will be a small favorite to get doubled up"


Or to put it another way, hopefully I'm not a huge underdog ...


I don't like this spot, your opponent is very unlikely to fold. Your hand has a little bit of value heads-up, but even so I would rather get it in first, when everyone might fold or at least the last man might call you with something moderate. Here we can't win unchallenged and someone has already told us they like their hand.


I also think that 10BB is too many to start getting desperate. If you keep pushing 10 in to win 1 1/2 it's only going to end in tears. In general, I reckon once you get to around 7 BB then you are committed to any hand you play, however you can still let the blinds go once or even twice if you don't find the right spot.


Pass here and get it in first sometime during the next round.


Andy.

Andy - Does this mean you would push in with hands like T6o and 86o. Those were my next two hands and the only chance I had to be first in during the next round. By the time my next BB arrived the blinds had increased to $500/1000.

Calvin,


Once it comes around to your UTG hand and you see 86 off or the like, it really depends whether the BB is going to fold. If he isn't, then you might be obliged to fold and take your chances in the BB.


For sure sometimes you play your "last" round and don't find anything any good but I still think on balance you will find something often enough to be in better shape than playing 66 to an early raiser.


Andy.

I go all in here, no question.


The ideal situation when you're short stacked and the blinds are pressing is to be first into the pot. But if you wait to do this, you're going to be so low on chips that doubling up won't really help you that much.


I don’t think it’s likely that your opponent will fold to a re-raise here. With his chip position and the blinds about to go up, he’s got to be fully committed to any hand he plays.


The way I see it, 66 is about as good a hand as your likely to get before being blinded out, you’re almost certain to be heads-up and there’s a chance he might just be holding a couple of overcards.

All-in or fold. Calling is not an option because the BB may play and 66 is not good 3 way. If all-in then you are very likely to be called by the original raiser and have to win the showdown, so your raise has no bluffing value. So these are your choices. Gamble or play safe. Against a solid player second to act, you are likely against a good hand, and just as likely to be against an overpair as you are against overcards. In this spot you have no chance of being against a smaller pair or just 1 overcard. Against a later raise you may be in better shape, and an all-in is probably a good gamble, but I would fold against this player in this position.