$109 Bubble Play

[eastbay]

I am again working on moving from $55 to $109.

Strangely enough, it seems like players at $109 are MORE likely to call all-ins on the bubble with very marginal hands like K or Q high, seriously reducing fold equity. Does anyone else also think this is the case? Or am I imagining things?

eastbay

[Irieguy]

Yeah, it's because they're better.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, it's because they're better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really follow that argument. Can you give an example of a bubble situation where calling with K high is +$EV play against a reasonable range of hands?

eastbay

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, it's because they're better.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm pretty sure he already knows that but somehow, i don't consider your response as the answer he was looking for.

[Irieguy]

You may be pushing with a range of hands that would not be considered reasonable. You may be doing this because it's correct for you to do so.

Now when I say they are better, I don't mean they are good. It's just that they are more likely to notice what you are up to and loosen their calling standards because of it. They probably loosen too much... but it's better than the adjustments being made at the lower limits.

Irieguy

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
You may be pushing with a range of hands that would not be considered reasonable. You may be doing this because it's correct for you to do so.


[/ QUOTE ]

Reasonable is the range of hands that is pushable by me assuming some calling standards by them. This is a wide range of hands. By "reasonable" I don't mean premium hands at all.

eastbay

[Irieguy]

Let's say we were playing a $109 SNG together:

Irieguy (2400)
Eastbay (2300)
ChipDog (400)
ChipKing (4900)

Blinds are 200/400. I am the BB, you are the SB and ChipDog folds UTG. ChipKing seems solid, but folds his button. You push.

I know that you are correct to push here with somewhere in the neighborhood of the top 60-70% of hands. I would probably push with even more unless the BB was a shark. There are some king-high hands that I would call you with here... and it would be +EV.

At the lower limits, I would only call here with a premium hand.

Irieguy

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say we were playing a $109 SNG together:

Irieguy (2400)
Eastbay (2300)
ChipDog (400)
ChipKing (4900)

Blinds are 200/400. I am the BB, you are the SB and ChipDog folds UTG. ChipKing seems solid, but folds his button. You push.

I know that you are correct to push here with somewhere in the neighborhood of the top 60-70% of hands. I would probably push with even more unless the BB was a shark. There are some king-high hands that I would call you with here... and it would be +EV.

At the lower limits, I would only call here with a premium hand.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you might be surprised at what I would push with here and what I wouldn't.

I have to take off for the weekend, but I'll tell you exactly what I would push with here.

eastbay

[UncleRemus]

You would be very wrong to call with K high here (I'm pushing any 2 from the SB instantly, btw). Even calling with KQs is going to lose you money.

I know ICM is a little off because of the situation, but just for a ballpark figure...
Folding = .2734 equity
Calling = .2625 equity

If you do in fact lose (which you will over a third of the time), you have to remmeber that you're all in on the SB next hand with 100 to chip dog's 400. You have to hope to win the hand outright while chip dog loses to a third hand that hopefully enters the pot. Otherwise, even if it's folded to you and you win, chip dog still has 300 remaining and can fold to take yet another shot at busting you.


I think this is a very, very, very easy push from SB, and an easy fold for all but the most premium hands in the BB.