My losing streak surpasses Jay!

[Schneids]

Between when I played 15 fulls this summer, and my second try the past few days, I'm up to -$13,000, or, 433BB downfall.

I'd estimate at least 50BB of that to bad play by me, maybe more.

Of course since I'm not a proven winner in this game it could just be that I'm a losing player in it. I'd say doubtful given that I'm familiar with LAG games and do very well in 10/20 6max.

In any case I'm another example of the large swings that can happen in this limit.

[bunky9590]

Sorry to hear man, Keep your head up. I know your game is fine. I'm seriously considering taking a week off myself. Its been a rough couple months.

[fsuplayer]

not what i wanted to hear before trying out the 15 for myself. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

good luck to you schneids, I hope things turn around for you.



fsuplayer

[Danenania]

What's your full table style like? Is it possible that you're going in on overdrive from all the SH play that you're used to, thereby greatly increasing your variance for no gain in EV?

I've been playing SH for only a couple months now and I sometimes have a hard time shifting back to full table mode. The 15/30 is even trickier because while it retains many elements of full table play, the aggression level is much closer to 10/20 6-max than a lower limit full game. You have to change one shoe but not the other.

Also, how many hands is this over?

[1800GAMBLER]

Sorry to hear it. FWIW, even with my losing streak in my results i'm now at a respectable bb/100h, just highlighting that you'll pull it back.

[SinCityGuy]

Is it possible that you're losing some of this on hands that are very strong in shorthanded play, but weak in full game play?

I'm talking about hands like ATo, KJo, 66, etc. If you're playing these hands with the same aggression that is appropriate in short-handed play, it will cost you a lot of money in the full 15/30 games.

[bicyclekick]

As schneids and I love giving each other hard times, it is a serious challange for me to come to this thread and not take shots at him...

I've been around the past few days when shneids has been playing his sessions and I've looked at his PT data and it just looks like he's getting drawn out on a TON and making a lot of second bests.

My thoughts orriginally too were that perhaps he's overplaying those hands and similar situations like you were saying sincityguy, but his aggression level is similar to mine as well as a lot of his stats actually and I've been a proven winner in the game.

He's sent me hand after hand where some bullshit gets there on the river and he of course as to pay it off.

He's just running awefully and it sucks it always happens when he tries 15/30.

[James282]

I can't say I've ever had -13k downswings, but I've had 7kish a couple times and I know the pit you get in your stomach. You can turn it around and be in the black faster than you know it in this game, though.
-James

[surfdoc]

Sorry that this is happening to you but thanks for posting. It makes my rough run seem very small by comparison and yet another reminder of the huge swings in this game (as if I needed another). It continues to amaze me how often the fish can bluff raise your AK on the turn with 88 on an AK23 board and catch an 8 on the river. oh well. If you decide to never play the 15 full game ever again I think most of us would be fine with that.

[fearme]

i took a 12k swing in a week this nov, if u can 8 table 6max games u'll do fine

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
if u can 8 table 6max games u'll do fine

[/ QUOTE ]

There's people who can 8 table 6max games? WTF?

Justin A

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if u can 8 table 6max games u'll do fine

[/ QUOTE ]

There's people who can 8 table 6max games? WTF?

Justin A

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, its crazy. I even heard somebody say spicy had played 10 10/20 6-max games, but I also here he has a horse penis and a gold plated shark tank bar.

I can play 6 6-max games and find it very peaceful, but 8 6-max games I feel like sawing my hand off.

[Robk]

since everyone else is trying to say nice things i guess i'll be negative. if you sat a player in the party 15 and he started off losing 433 BB, it's obvious that he would be conditionally much more likely to be a losing player than a winning one on a 433 BB downswing because a priori a winning player is relativey much less likely to go on such a streak. (you could put numbers on this if you want) of course this true in a situation here we have no prior knowledge about the player's ability, whereas in your case we do have some prior knoledge (that you are a winning 10/20 6max player). as others have argued different starting hand ranges create subtle differnces in the games, but this is still a pretty strong piece of evidence. but only you can weigh whether it overcomes the 100+ :1 odds that you're playing well given the information your results alone indicate. in any event i would proceed with caution, analysis of your play, doing the appropriate standard error analysis of your results, etc.

[Lawrence Ng]

The past 3 months have been a slump for me as well.

I don't know when it's going to end, but for sure the cards are not much fun to play right now. At least the fish are happy when they call my QQ with K7 offsuit, hit the king on the river and take down a decent pot. It'll keep 'em coming back which is nice.

Lawrence

[Ponks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if u can 8 table 6max games u'll do fine

[/ QUOTE ]

There's people who can 8 table 6max games? WTF?

Justin A

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, its crazy. I even heard somebody say spicy had played 10 10/20 6-max games, but I also here he has a horse penis and a gold plated shark tank bar.

I can play 6 6-max games and find it very peaceful, but 8 6-max games I feel like sawing my hand off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ever since I got into the 6 max games the past month or so I've been 8 tabling them. Fun times. I gotta win the November and December open challenges so 700 hands/hr is very nice.

Ponks

Ponks

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Ever since I got into the 6 max games the past month or so I've been 8 tabling them. Fun times. I gotta win the November and December open challenges so 700 hands/hr is very nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find that incredible. I have a hard time eight tabling ring limit games. I usually go with six so that I don't burn out too quickly.

On a side note though, I find it very easy to eight table NL ring games, and I think that I could probably ten or twelve table them. I don't know why this is because the hands per hour tends to be about the same for each.

Justin A

[Ponks]

I dont know that much about NL, but do you play tighter there ??

Ponks

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know that much about NL, but do you play tighter there ??

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Good point. I do know why I can super table NL easier. I play super tight preflop with the 50 BB structure, and even when I'm in a hand, there's usually only a couple decision points. In limit there can be multiple bets and raises to make in a single hand.

Justin A

[BusterStacks]

This discourages my thoughts of ever playing at that level.

[MicroBob]

Schneids -

sorry to hear that.
That really sucks....sounds like you are taking it reasonably well (as well as can be expected anyway, if not better).


I'm starting to beat this game a little bit now (after really struggling with bad-beats AND really inept play)....

if I can beat it then I sure as hell know a lot of 2+2'ers can....and Schneids is better than 'a lot of 2+2'ers'.


How many hands and days is this streak over?
How many tables are you playing? (I assume 8).


I'm not as multi-table proficient as you....but I found that things started clicking for me at 15/30 when I stopped playing so many freaking tables for a little while and just settled down a bit.

Even 1-tabled every once in awhile (OMG!! do people actually just play one table??).

I think that it can't really hurt that much.
Helps stop the panic a little bit even if it doesn't lead to significantly improved play.
That whole bit of "Wow!! I'm down a few-hundy on 5 of my 6 tables." (or 7 of 8 tables) gets to me sometimes.

But losing on just 1 or 2 tables obviously doesn't injure you as fast.
Maybe it's just my own tilt-control...especially for this level.

And Maybe it's not making a difference for me at all....
as my AK on AK5 board now has a tendency to be holding-up and not getting drawn out by 75o or even 42o.

I've also been finding a few more maniacs of the VPIP 40, 50 or even 75 variety....and they're a lot of fun (when they aren't drawing out on you).


No real point here....except that I know that Schneids is good enough to beat these games.
And I'm honestly not sure whether or not I am....but I am much happier now that I am getting back some of those previously lost BB's.

Anyway, think about playing just a couple tables for an hour or two to get warmed-up....or something like that.


good luck.

[theBruiser500]

i agree with robb, i bet a lot of this downstreak is your fault. put extra work into analyzing your game.

[bicyclekick]

I've been meaning to say this. I bet you're playing too many tables, too.

Just play 4 and focus extra hard.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
Between when I played 15 fulls this summer, and my second try the past few days, I'm up to -$13,000, or, 433BB downfall.

[/ QUOTE ]
Keep raising 98s UTG and we'll see just how big the streak can actually get, fish.

[Schneids]

Over roughly 15,000 total hands.

[Schneids]

Thank you Rob, your thoughts are one of the things that really worries me. I just cannot fathom the likelihood of this start happening to a winning player in the game, from the moment they start playing in it...

Regarding starting hands, Bicyclekick can sort of affirm my aggression is not really out of whack. I'm sure it needs tuning, and I'm sure there are spots I can save bets or lay down more. Furthermore, before I played 6max I played oodles of full table hands and I usually do alright in Canterbury's full table 30/60 games. I don't really think I am too clueless about the differences in full table vs short table.

The final thing I know is that there've been many other 10/20 6maxers who've played the 6max game with virtually the identical playing style as me, and since moved onto 15/30 and done exceptionally well, practically from the get-go...such as Nate, James, Peter_Rus, Stoxtrader or Gonores. It just seems so unlikely that these players who had 6max styles so similar to me can all just jump into 15/30 and do well, and I go in and implode. James told me long ago that he feels the 6max games helped out so many aspects of his full table game in 15/30.

Moreover, I haven't been playing these games completely blind, either... BK sent me his PT notes.txt file when I retried the 15's a few days ago and I've generally been sitting in good tables with plenty of action players.


So yeah, as it is right now, I'm willing to concede my game probably needs some overhaul and I'm fully taking blame for my losing streak in 15/30, but I'm also somewhat confident a lot of my losses have not been too avoidable.

Anyway for now I'm back to playing 10/20 6max until I get a winning streak going and have more confidence again.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
The past 3 months have been a slump for me as well.

I don't know when it's going to end, but for sure the cards are not much fun to play right now. At least the fish are happy when they call my QQ with K7 offsuit, hit the king on the river and take down a decent pot. It'll keep 'em coming back which is nice.

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup definitely, been there many times. 3-outs are a monster. I'm sure many 2+2ers have benefitted from the $$ I've given to rather poor players.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
This discourages my thoughts of ever playing at that level.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just one fish in the sea. If you can stomach swings and are a proven winner at 5/10 you should definitely play it. It's been so long since I've logged consistent hours in full rings online that I cannot call myself a proven winner in it any more.

[Schneids]

Hey Bob,

Actually most of these hands have been played while only playing 6-tables. I know enough to know that when trying a new limit that I should try to pay a little more attention while I get acquainted to it. And most of the rest that weren't 6 tables was done with four tables.

Regarding seeing being down a few hundo on 5 of 6 tables or something, that sort of thing doesn't really phase me since it'll happen often enough to me already in 10/20 6m.

Whenever I give it another go it'll definitely only be four tables until I feel like "hey I CAN win in this game."

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Between when I played 15 fulls this summer, and my second try the past few days, I'm up to -$13,000, or, 433BB downfall.

[/ QUOTE ]
Keep raising 98s UTG and we'll see just how big the streak can actually get, fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

HA HA. My full table game is actually much dif. than my 6max game, believe it or not... Besides, you were watching me play 6max last night and you told me that all I was doing was folding!! Remember that?

Just cuz I've been known to disregard position when opening in 6max doesn't mean it translates to full tables!

I can't wait for my first trip out to So. Cal just so I can hear you whine like a little girl while I'm stacking your chips. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[1800GAMBLER]

NL players never understand variance.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
Between when I played 15 fulls this summer, and my second try the past few days, I'm up to -$13,000, or, 433BB downfall.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's really big loose streak. What is your variance for this game? My highest streak at 15/30 was 150BB (70K hands played). Of course as i plan to keep playing im prepared for 200+BB loose streaks... But 433... hmm. My highest loose streak ever happens was at 15/30SH and it was around 250BB. I had a variance of 21.5BB/100 there. 15/30 full looks more simple for me, so i suspect 400+ streaks are too high.

I'm pretty sure with high probability you're missing some clue for these games. The one thing i find for these game is to trust people more than in SH-tables, maybe you pushing too much?

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]

Regarding starting hands, Bicyclekick can sort of affirm my aggression is not really out of whack. I'm sure it needs tuning, and I'm sure there are spots I can save bets or lay down more. Furthermore, before I played 6max I played oodles of full table hands and I usually do alright in Canterbury's full table 30/60 games. I don't really think I am too clueless about the differences in full table vs short table.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I looked over his stats and actually they are very close to mine including aggression levels. Now I know he could be betting/raising in different spots to get these levels, but when we talk about poker we're generally on the same page.

[ QUOTE ]

The final thing I know is that there've been many other 10/20 6maxers who've played the 6max game with virtually the identical playing style as me, and since moved onto 15/30 and done exceptionally well, practically from the get-go...such as Nate, James, Peter_Rus, Stoxtrader or Gonores. It just seems so unlikely that these players who had 6max styles so similar to me can all just jump into 15/30 and do well, and I go in and implode. James told me long ago that he feels the 6max games helped out so many aspects of his full table game in 15/30.


[/ QUOTE ]

This paragraph is very important, I think.

[ QUOTE ]

Moreover, I haven't been playing these games completely blind, either... BK sent me his PT notes.txt file when I retried the 15's a few days ago and I've generally been sitting in good tables with plenty of action players.


[/ QUOTE ]
I should have a new notes file either tonight or tomorrow for you.

[ QUOTE ]

So yeah, as it is right now, I'm willing to concede my game probably needs some overhaul and I'm fully taking blame for my losing streak in 15/30, but I'm also somewhat confident a lot of my losses have not been too avoidable.


[/ QUOTE ]

A little thurough critical examination, perhaps, but not an overhaul.

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway for now I'm back to playing 10/20 6max until I get a winning streak going and have more confidence again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally understandable.

[sxb]

Last night, I lost $3,000 within my first 320 hands while 3-tabling party 10/20 6max. That's -47BB/100Hands. Anyone can beat this? /images/graemlins/frown.gif And I'm a 4+BB/100Hands long term winner. After 800 more hands, I ended the night down -$1500. Not too bad.

[bicyclekick]

4bb/100 long time better be at least 75k hands.

[sxb]

For the last 4 months, 87,117 hands, 4.34BB/100Hands.

[Blarg]

Best of luck to you, Schneids. As a person of far less skill than you or anyone posting this thread, I have little constructive to say besides one stab at it -- which is that even four tables might be too much if you're not a proven winner even at one table yet. I can't help thinking that if you are making some mistakes, you are putting them on auto-pilot and quadrupling them, and that adds up very quickly.

I can't see how multi-tabling, especially four tables and up, is a good way to start off a new level; and to continue to do so even when losing a substantial amount ... I don't know. Maybe you're just having bad luck and want to get into the long run sooner, and maybe by playing more tables you will. But the reverse side to that is that if that assumption is wrong, and you're doing some wrong things and not seeing it...the only long run you're going to get into is something like a 433 BB losing streak.

It just seems the chance of catching mistakes has got to go down if your attention is spread thin. Right now, your game hasn't earned the right, at this particular level, to be spread over multiple tables.

[NotReady]

You may have already done this, but the bankroll formula shows that if you have a SD of 16 BB, you could be a $41 per hour winner and still have a losing streak of about 430 BB. A higher SD of 18 BB would make $52 per hour possible. 14 BB SD produces $31 per hour.

I'm not sure of the frequency of max losses, but they must be very rare, maybe 2 or 3 in a lifetime?

[Baulucky]

[ QUOTE ]
Between when I played 15 fulls this summer, and my second try the past few days, I'm up to -$13,000, or, 433BB downfall.

[/ QUOTE ]

A real eye-opener. I wonder how many "pros" would still be pros had they caught one streak like this at the beginning.

Thanks for sharing.

[sthief09]

I've started to mine 24 tables around the clock of 15/30 to play with some numbers and to see the types of swings that players go through. I'm pretty sure I know who you are based on your post, because I remember thinking to myself, "wow that guy has damn good preflop numbers but he's getting absolutely destroyed." it makes me wonder why I want to play in that game so badly. maybe it was because of guys like the one that dropped 6k last night.

[Joe Tall]

Schneids, Check your email.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[NLfool]

I know people always say there are plenty of fish but I've definitely noticed improved (more correctly less bad play) than in months past. I'm finding less and less people on buddy list are active etc. I think the increase of good players and the decrease in bad players really changes things.

[threepines]

Hearing this from a strong player makes me feel better because I'm on a 200 BB downswing playing 15-30 while making money playing 10-20 6 max. Have you been multi-tabling both sh and full games simultaneously? I have and I am beginning to think it's a bad idea. I find that my full table play tends to be adversely affected - I overplay hands, don't give my opponents enough credit, and call hands down too much.

I tried to start a thread on multi-tabling different games but didn't get any response in the internet forum.

[joker122]

Do you think even with the volume of hands you get at 10/20 and all around bad play that 15/30 is more profitable?

What I'm getting at is you make a killing at 10/20 so why sweat 15/30? If it's not about the money and instead a personal goal I can understand that.

[Nightwish]

I have no doubt that you're a winner at 10/20, but based on what I've seen of your play at 15/30 (granted, I only have 46 hands on you), my feeling is that you're overaggressive and you take hands too far. I'm guessing that both of those traits are a result of playing 6-max, where people try to run you over with all sorts of crap.

Here's a sample hand to show what I mean. A rock (VP$IP 8.53, PFR 2.33) raises UTG+1. It's folded to you in the BB, and you reraise with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif. The rock caps, and you call. At this point, the only possible hands he could have are AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK. In fact, he may not even cap with JJ and AKo. The flop is

4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif

You should be done with this hand right here. You are beat with probability one. Yet you mysteriously call down to the river. At showdown, the board is

4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif

and you lose to AA, as expected. I don't know what else to say about this hand. If there are a lot more hands like that (again, I only have 46 hands on you), you need to re-evaluate your play.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
( And I'm a 4+BB/100Hands long term winner. After 800 more hands, I ended the night down -$1500. Not too bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Presumably that means 200k + hands, congratulations if so as thats a good feat.

[sxb]

No, just 100k+ hands. So we need 200k+ hands to be qualified as 'long term'? /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Tosh]

Not really, we need more than a million in reality. 200k is just my number of hands to define a decent enough period.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd estimate at least 50BB of that to bad play by me, maybe more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I made that statement with a few hands in mind, the TT one you described being one of them. Another one was a KJ hand I played extremely awful (in case any one else happened to observe it).

Basically, since I remember that specific hand without having to look it up: On other tables I was getting beated to death by people actually trying to run me off hands, then hitting their 2-5 outers, and I took some tilt into this TT hand. FWIW I remember having no notes on this guy. Also, FWIW, tilt is a very very very minor factor in this losing streak. I'll admit when I tilt. This TT hand was one of them. There were a few others. Not many though. I have plenty of humility and am willing to admit if I'm wrong about something, but tilt/bad play have not been the overriding factors in this losing streak.

Not that you or anyone else would care or have reason to take his word for it, but, I quote 2+2er I_am_B; who although rarely posts and is probably unknown to most of you, said the following about me in a post:

[ QUOTE ]
The control he has over his emotions is a model for any aspiring pro

[/ QUOTE ]

He's seen me play plenty, and has played plenty against me at Canterbury.

[ QUOTE ]
take hands too far

[/ QUOTE ]
I've felt this way about my play during my whole running bad stretch (live and online), particularly to river or turn raises, but I also feel like if I fold every time to these signs of aggression I'm going to showdown about 10-15% of the time, total (perhaps a sign of getting turned/rivered a lot, or me having this sick desire to calldown just to say "not again"). Basically, lately I feel like I'm always paying off when I should be folding, yet I feel like if I'm not making these payoffs then I'm never going to showdown. I guess it's a catch-22 I need to figure out for myself after I have time to redevote once finals are over.

I'm sure you're right that I have holes to plug but I'm sure I'm right in saying that a vast, vast majority of the losing streak has been from bad luck and that that TT hand is not indicative of my overall post flop game.

Thanks for the feedback though Nightwish, I do appreciate it.