"Middle Limit Holdem" Advice -- Do you agree?

[gaming_mouse]

From p. 13 of Ciaffone's and Brier's Middle Limit Holdem Poker:

Be aware of situations when pairing an overcard makes a possible straight. Here is an example. You raise on the button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif after several opponents have limped, and wind up with four callers. The flop comes T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif. A player in middle position bets and there are two callers. What do you do? We believe you should fold. The deciding factor is that king you are trying to pair may give someone with Q-J a very big smile

I found this reasoning somewhat questionable, as it hinges on the possibility of one of your opponents holding a single specific hand.

Anyone have any further thoughts on this?

gm

[brandon]

weak tight. id raise all day long.

[sthief09]

I agree with you. Also consider though, that if you turn a K, a lot of popular hands, like JT, QT, J9, and Q9 just picked up a 4 out redraw. also, on a board like this, the chances you're reverse dominated are pretty big

[Derek in NYC]

How can you possibly raise this hand with AK unimproved? You have a multiway pot where MP has bet into the raiser, and two players have overcalled. You are not ahead, and you are a 3:1 dog against anybody with a pair. No chance you are ahead. Given this, I took Ciaffone's point to be that your K outs are all semi-dirty due to the possibility of a either giving somebody the nut str8, or a 4-out redraw. I think if you're going to play AK unimproved here, the only justifiable way to play it is to call. If MP1 got a piece of it, he should reraise you. I think reraising this flop is chip spewing.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you. Also consider though, that if you turn a K, a lot of popular hands, like JT, QT, J9, and Q9 just picked up a 4 out redraw. also, on a board like this, the chances you're reverse dominated are pretty big

[/ QUOTE ]

sthief,

so are you saying that you think this is a marginal call, or still a fold? it sounds like you are agreeing with ciaffone, but giving a sounder reason than just worrying about a single possible holding. is this correct?

gm

[sthief09]

no, I'd call, but I'd be willing to dump it on the turn if I hit one of my pair cards

[maryfield48]

[ QUOTE ]
no, I'd call, but I'd be willing to dump it on the turn if I hit one of my pair cards

[/ QUOTE ]

Then what are you hoping for, sthief?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no, I'd call, but I'd be willing to dump it on the turn if I hit one of my pair cards

[/ QUOTE ]

Then what are you hoping for, sthief?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he means that he would dump it if, for example, he got raised, or he was facing two cold to call.

gm

[helpmeout]

I think folding is good, K9 KT A9 AT and QJ are all popular hands.

The number of times you are reverse dominated or lose to a straight probably make this a good move.

[BSXX]

You posted this in a “Small stakes” forum, but remember his book is about Middle Limit poker, which will be somewhat tighter and more solid (with some exceptions of course).

With this in mind, with this flop, the 2 callers scare me more than the bettor. I can’t imagine what a raise would accomplish in this situation. In a solid middle limit game, the 2 callers will have something and will just call you down, and you can’t even beat bottom pair at this point.

As much as I love Ciaffone’s book, this is not one of the stronger hand illustrations. I don’t disagree with a fold, but not necessarily for the reasoning he provides.

Keep in mind he is addressing a different game than the typical loose, small stakes game. In the introduction, Ciaffone says that the book assumes you are up against “decent players who have the bankroll and experience to be playing in middle limit holdem games.”

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind he is addressing a different game than the typical loose, small stakes game. In the introduction, Ciaffone says that the book assumes you are up against “decent players who have the bankroll and experience to be playing in middle limit holdem games.”

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I know -- but I wanted to know 1) if the reasoning applied to small stakes games as well and 2) if others thought the reasoning was sound for middle limit games (lots of posters here play 15/30).

Anyway, it certainly wasn't meant as any kind of dig against Ciaffone -- I like his book too -- I was just trying to understand this point better.

gm

[BSXX]

That's cool. I didn't mean to come on too strong.

Here's my attempt to answer your questions:

Question #1: In a small stakes game this is a tougher question. 2 overcards against a very likely smaller pair is one of those ongoing debates. With 3 opponents in the hand, as in this example, I would still fold though.

Question #2: I used to play a $10/$20 B&M game, and I would definitely fold in this situation. As I mentioned in my original response, the callers concern me more than the original bettor. I don't play the 15/30 online games so I can't address that.

[pfkaok]

I'm going to go against the others here, and say that I agree with what Ciaffone is saying... he says "the deciding factor", meaning that otherwise it would be a close call. The factors that others stated, reverse domination, and the precsence of 2 callers would make it a close call. Then when you add the additional factor that you might give somebody a straight it pushes the odds that much more. If these are reasonably sound players, then what could you possibly put the bettor and 2 callers on that would give you good odds to call? It would have be almost perfect, like A10, J10, J10, then you'd have to hit the king, or maybe the bettor has the 9, and the other 2 guys have 10's... but in any way it would be almost impossible that both of your outs are good, and Very likely that neither of them are. Normally you'd give your K more of a chance to be a clean out, as its more likely you're against A10, or A9, than K10, or K9. However, in this example, there's no flush draw, so with 2 callers, the only reasonable draw for them to have is JQ. So having your K complete the OESD is actually an important factor with a bet and 2 callers, since without it you might be able to have odds to take a card off in this raised pot, as your K out would be much cleaner.

If these were bad players however, who could have almost anything to start with, you have a much better chance to have 2 callers with just middle pair, gutshots, or even an overcard. So you might hit your K, and get some guy with K8 to pay you off.

[Trix]

I fold too, there are a crapload of hands that will have you at 3 or less outs and peole will have tons of redraws on a board like this should you hit a K or A that is good.
I dont think 11:1 is good enough here.
14:1 would be close imo.