QUEEN-QUEEN Offsuit

[nepenthe]

Everyone at the table seems quite typical. Not too maniacal and somewhat loose, they will push draws as well as strong hands alike and stay in too long with the worst of it. As usual, I took a slightly different approach from the usual.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (13 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

What do you think of the flop line?

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of the flop line?

[/ QUOTE ]

What was your reasoning behind just smooth calling the initial bet?

[nepenthe]

[ QUOTE ]
What was your reasoning behind just smooth calling the initial bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

A risky experimentation knowing full well I'm running a fair risk of losing the pot.

[The T.A.]

With straight and flush draws a plenty, this is a VERY risky experiment.

I'd just stick with a raise.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a VERY risky experiment

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that its all that risky.

Isn't this one of those situations when you should wait until the turn to raise, ala SSHE? Your 3 bet caused you to be able to charge only one BB on the turn.

Btw, I didn't realize pocket queens could be anything but offsuit.

[The T.A.]

If raising on the flop would eliminate the CO, I'd definitely raise.

[EliteNinja]

Raise the flop, easy decision.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
If raising on the flop would eliminate the CO, I'd definitely raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

5:1 odds that CO is the nut flush draw. He's not going anywhere with 4 players in a medium-sized pot.

I don't think a flop raise would really eliminate any hand that's a threat to the Hero here. Any ace can either call with two overcards or with a pair + TK (Obviously nobody had A3) &amp; justify that with "implied odds", any OESD with the 3 is going to call 2 bets knowing that they're likely to get a lot of action if an A comes up, and nobody with a flush draw is going to fold this pot on the flop. They can all happily convince themselves that Hero is holding nothing but an AKo &amp; that they aren't likely to be behind another made hand at this point.

I think that waiting for the turn to raise is the better move in this case--at least you can (hopefully) knock out the straight draws that way. Or save yourself a bet if the 3 comes on the turn.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not going anywhere with 4 players in a medium-sized pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. His turn call suggests to me that he was most likely going to stay in the hand for a flop raise.

[The T.A.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If raising on the flop would eliminate the CO, I'd definitely raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

5:1 odds that CO is the nut flush draw. He's not going anywhere with 4 players in a medium-sized pot.


[/ QUOTE ]
Even easier decision, then. Just plain raise, and cap if necessarily.

An A, 3, or club will hurt you on the turn, but you have to raise with the best hand at this point. All the straight draws will fold to you of nobody improves and you bet on the turn, since you've shown strength on the flop.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Even easier decision, then. Just plain raise, and cap if necessarily

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm........ no

The far better play is to charge more money on the turn. Capping the flop gains you less than waiting to raise on the turn, in that case. Raising the flop is +EV, but raising the turn is even more +EV.

This is one of the most important concepts I got out of SSHE, by Ed Miller. Queens are a little more vulnerable to overcards, but I think the concept is still valid in this situation.

[The T.A.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even easier decision, then. Just plain raise, and cap if necessarily

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm........ no

The far better play is to charge more money on the turn. Capping the flop gains you less than waiting to raise on the turn, in that case. Raising the flop is +EV, but raising the turn is even more +EV.

This is one of the most important concepts I got out of SSHE, by Ed Miller.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to understand, regardless of capping or not capping on the flop, straight draws will most likely throw away their hands on the turn if they don't make it, and you bet into it.

You're essentially playing the flush draws, here. Extracting money on the flop from the straight draws is a good idea.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to understand

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, okay. I should have known.

[The T.A.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need to understand

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, okay. I should have known.

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh... sure thing, dude.

[AngryCola]

n/m
*DELETED*

[nepenthe]

[ QUOTE ]
straight draws will most likely throw away their hands on the turn if they don't make it, and you bet into it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement simply cannot be true.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
You're essentially playing the flush draws, here. Extracting money on the flop from the straight draws is a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Hero raises the flop and everyone calls (we'll assume that CO doesn't 3-bet), and the blank turn card is then checked to Hero who bets it, then every player behind him is getting at least 9:1 pot odds to call the turn. That allows flush draws, OESDs, two overcards (depending on how many outs they discount, if any, for Hero's possible holding and/or the flush draw), and gutshot + overcard to call for +perceivedEV.

On the other hand, if Hero smooth calls the flop &amp; CO does the same (he couldn't have seen that raise coming), there's a good chance that SB will try to hold the initiative in the hand by betting out the turn, allowing Hero to raise there. BB folded to 1 turn bet anyway, so we can safely assume he'd have done the same in this scenario, leaving CO with 4.5:1 pot odds to call on the turn--very borderline even for a flush draw. If CO folds, SB gets the same 9:1 pot odds to call the raise.

[nepenthe]

First, if I try a play similar to the one above, I would be more inclined to do it with KK or AA, both of which are less vulnerable to overcards. In that sense trying it with QQ is slightly more dangerous.

My plan indeed was to raise a relatively safe turn card (i.e. non-flush, anything that doesn't complete an obvious straight, and yes, even overcards) and tread carefully if a danger card fell. However, when CO raised the flop with position, the plan was essentially shot to hell as my options have just been greatly reduced as far as protection goes. At that point, my question is: should I just call CO's raise and see what develops on the turn, or reraise the flop? Well, if I were just to call the flop raise, what do I do on a blank turn? Going for a turn checkraise is much too risky for obvious reasons, and must be rejected. Therefore my only turn option is to bet out and hope CO 1) has a worse hand/draw, and 2) raises with said worse hand. This combination is unlikely from a typical opponent. Still, betting is the only feasible option for the turn even though it will fail to face anyone with incorrect odds for any marginal draws.

Knowing that I must bet the turn, and also knowing there is very little likelihood that I can protect my hand, the cat is out of the bag. I must reraise the flop for value.

[private joker]

I'm surprised there's even this much discussion about this. It's a super-easy flop raise. Saying you should wait until the turn to raise is a gross misapplication of SSH.

The time to wait for the turn is when you have a small edge on the flop that might have a bigger edge on the turn. If you have TT on a ragged flop, you wait for the turn; if it's safe, you raise. If it isn't, you can let go. What you don't do is give straght draws like this infinite odds to beat you. Anyone with, like, A2 or A4 should get charged to hit their A against you, and you'd like to get them out. Make the CO face 2 cold.

All this plus the fact that you've got friggin' pocket queens and you need to get more money in the pot with the best of it.

[The T.A.]

[ QUOTE ]
All this plus the fact that you've got friggin' pocket queens and you need to get more money in the pot with the best of it.

[/ QUOTE ]
A man with sense!

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Going for a turn checkraise is much too risky for obvious reasons, and must be rejected

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I think it's an excellent spot for a CR, but I'm not that great of a player.

The action on the flop strongly suggests that someone will bet again on the turn. If you aren't confident that someone is going to bet in this spot, when is a CR EVER acceptable?
That is most likely the play I would make from the position you were in, but I guess I could be wrong.

Again, the only problem I see is there is some lost value on the turn. When you 3 bet on the flop like that, you are probably just going to get check-called on the turn (profitably for your opponents).

It's the nature of my game to try and charge more on the turn.

You raising the flop after it was 2-bet is fine, and is definitely +EV, but (personally) I would go for a CR on the turn.

I think this debate illustrates the problems with being out of position pretty well. I just think if you don't think a CR will work in this spot, you will rarely find times that it will work (unless you have a monster).

That's all just my opinion, and I could very well be wrong.

[AngryCola]

You don't think your edge is pretty small with this flop and two cards to come?

Really?

To be honest with you, I'd really like to hear Mr. Miller's opinion about this situation.

[nepenthe]

[ QUOTE ]
The time to wait for the turn is when you have a small edge on the flop that might have a bigger edge on the turn. If you have TT on a ragged flop, you wait for the turn; if it's safe, you raise. If it isn't, you can let go.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know what? Now that I think about it, if I had TT Offsuit on this exact board with the exact flop action to me, I'm raising, experiments be damned. Same with JJ. Consider the possibility that it is because I hold QQ that I can more readily afford the call.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Saying you should wait until the turn to raise is a gross misapplication of SSH.

[/ QUOTE ]

page 328, Item 4.

[AngryCola]

Great posts Harv, you are definitely a man with some sense. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think all 3 points of item 4 are applicable in this case.

[nepenthe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Going for a turn checkraise is much too risky for obvious reasons, and must be rejected

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this debate illustrates the problems with being out of position pretty well. I just think if you don't think a CR will work in this spot, you will rarely find times that it will work (unless you have a monster).

[/ QUOTE ]

A turn checkraise, if it works, would be excellent. It is just that it would be too much of a disaster if a turn blank gets checked through by CO's flush/straight draws or whatever, such that I am unwilling to attempt it unless I was close to 100% sure CO would bet the turn. And I wasn't even 80% sure, without compelling reads to boot.

[AngryCola]

I'm curious, what did the SB and CO hold? Did you ever find out?

I would like to determine the equity on the flop.

[Evan]

I just skimmed through this thread. Am I the only one that didn't know what the CO was going to do before he did it?

[The T.A.]

[ QUOTE ]
I just skimmed through this thread. Am I the only one that didn't know what the CO was going to do before he did it?

[/ QUOTE ]
Nope, you're not alone.

I think this thread was doomed the second it was created. I mean, "Queen-Queen Offsuit." Comon, now.

[AngryCola]

Yes. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[nepenthe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just skimmed through this thread. Am I the only one that didn't know what the CO was going to do before he did it?

[/ QUOTE ]
Nope, you're not alone.

I think this thread was doomed the second it was created. I mean, "Queen-Queen Offsuit." Comon, now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think one of us is missing the point, and I would be surprised if it be I.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]

I think this thread was doomed the second it was created. I mean, "Queen-Queen Offsuit." Comon, now

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love to hear your counter-points to the last replies to your posts by Harv and the OP.

[AngryCola]

I'm going to post the flop and turn equity for this hand. Please, bear with me.

Lets give the CO a half decent hand like Q /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif, leaving him with only the flush draw and runner-runner. I will give the other 2 players random hands.

The flop equity shapes up like this:

733,055,400 games 435.266 secs 1,684,154 games/sec

Board: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 33.5982 % [ 00.33 00.00 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 34.1555 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { QcJc }
Hand 3: 16.1231 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 16.1231 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { random }

Your equity here is actually lower than the CO's equity!

Now, lets take a look at the turn equity:

32,580,240 games 19.639 secs 1,658,956 games/sec

Board: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 48.4535 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 19.6030 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { QcJc }
Hand 3: 15.9717 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 15.9717 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }

Here, you have regained a large edge and have a much higher equity. I prefer to charge double bets here, when I have a much higher edge.

If I gave the CO something like A /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif or K /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif, you would be much further behind when you were raising on the flop.

This is why it is better to wait until the turn in many situations. But... what do I know? I guess I could be wrong.

[pudley4]

Played perfectly. (By "perfectly" I mean "exactly the way I would have played it") /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[CinnamonWind]

I'd have raised the turn instead. I love the first smooth call on the flop, and I'd have called again to set up a turn raise. Nobody on PP 3-6 is folding to a flop raise, so you cannot protect your hand that way on this board. At least you can charge them the max if you hand holds up. That's the way I see PP now, frankly--protecting a hand is very difficult in many spots, so when I don't feel it can be done I get tricky and try to extract the max with check raises and turn surprises.

[AngryCola]

I don't know what the hell I was thinking. In fact, I may not have been thinking at all. I'm going to start back at the beginning.

The smooth call on the flop isn't bad. Raising it wouldn't be bad either (pretty sure I said that at one point), but I still prefer the former. By smooth calling, two things can happen:

1) The CO just calls and you most likely get to raise the SB's bet on the turn. This, of course, allows you to reduce the odds for your opponents, and gets more money in when you have a bigger edge.

2) The CO raises the flop. When this happens, the jig is up, and your best move IS to 3 bet it. At this point, the pot has already become larger, and there are 3 other players (besides yourself) invested in calling one more bet.

I was not taking enough time to consider the positions of the players in this hand. Waiting until the turn to raise is just not going to work. The fact that the CO is doing the raising increases the chances he will be trying take the free card. Also, the SB "just calling" the CO's raise suggests that he will not be betting the flop.

In fact, waiting to raise the turn will have exactly these results in this hand:


Flop: (8 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls, CO raises, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (11 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)

How I could have been so short-sighted is beyond me. There is nothing you can do about the turn. It's most likely going to go down in only one way. On top of that, there is less money in the pot by the river (the only difference in the two approaches). A CR on the turn IS too risky, because the CO has position and a probable good draw. Yep, I was wrong about that too.

You may not be the favorite on the flop, but you are certainly a favorite over a couple of the players. The raise by the CO has to change your strategy. Because of the action, there is nothing else you can do but raise the flop for value. You have to take advantage of his raise.

If you held something like TT, you might consider calling and waiting to see what the turn brings, because you could be much larger dog to the field than when you hold QQ. Interestingly, if the CO DID have something like A/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, he most likely should have capped the flop himself for value.

I was really wrong about this hand, and was suffering from a severe case of stupidity. My apologies go out to anyone I claimed was wrong. Some of the opposing viewpoints did have some faulty logic, but their conclusions were correct in this case.

Oops! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[nepenthe]

CO folded the river.

SB called with THREE-THREE.

Thanks for everyone's comments.