JeffBship
12-03-2004, 05:40 PM
How do you apply opponent statistics during play?
I've been searching and looking through posts for a couple days and I haven't been able to find a good discussion of this question. I'm a newbie (<5000 hands) in poker tracker. It has already opened my eyes to my own play and is clearly a great tool if only for that. I also use it in table selection.
But what about during actual play? Any good examples of situations where you act differently based on the stats of the opponent?
Here's an example hand question. This situation should be fairly rare, but has come up five or six times in the last couple days for some reason:
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.
Flop: (4 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks.
Turn: (2 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, SB calls, Hero folds, UTG folds.
River: (4 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, SB folds.
Final Pot: 5 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 4 BB, won by MP3.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to MP3.</font>
Here's the stats on the final two at the time:
SB {{TOT HANDS: 62 DESC: Fishy LP-P VP$IP: 47 PFR: 3 AF-TOT: 1.2}}>
MP3 {{TOT HANDS: 86 DESC: Fishy LP-P VP$IP: 73 PFR: 0 AF-TOT: 0.4}}>
So after the fact I'm obviously wishing I had seen the river for the full house, but my thinking when the 999 was on the board was that one may already have a Jack. With the river to come I figured they were both loose and may have almost any random x card with Ax or Kx. Both have shown some pretty creative starting hand selections. So with that I figure I'm probably in a lottery with a one in three chance of hitting my King or Queen on the river. Since MP3 bet on the turn, I'm thinking he's got a pocket pair or Jx.
So here's what I'm trying to coagulate in my brain:
Basically the question is when the guy bets to try to decide if he is bluffing or not. Pretty scary board so usually most players fold to any bet.
What player types do you discount the bet as a probable bluff? (LA-A? sLA-A?)
What player types do you respect the bet as evidence of a boat or quads? (TP-P? LP-P?)
What about the middle of the road players? (sLA-P, sLP-A)
Last note: Is this the right board? I was in a toss up between software for using poker tracker and general poker theory for categorizing opponents. I'm a newbie so advice is welcome.
Any links to good discussions of applying opponent stats to optimize play would be appreciated.
I've been searching and looking through posts for a couple days and I haven't been able to find a good discussion of this question. I'm a newbie (<5000 hands) in poker tracker. It has already opened my eyes to my own play and is clearly a great tool if only for that. I also use it in table selection.
But what about during actual play? Any good examples of situations where you act differently based on the stats of the opponent?
Here's an example hand question. This situation should be fairly rare, but has come up five or six times in the last couple days for some reason:
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.
Flop: (4 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks.
Turn: (2 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, SB calls, Hero folds, UTG folds.
River: (4 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, SB folds.
Final Pot: 5 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 4 BB, won by MP3.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to MP3.</font>
Here's the stats on the final two at the time:
SB {{TOT HANDS: 62 DESC: Fishy LP-P VP$IP: 47 PFR: 3 AF-TOT: 1.2}}>
MP3 {{TOT HANDS: 86 DESC: Fishy LP-P VP$IP: 73 PFR: 0 AF-TOT: 0.4}}>
So after the fact I'm obviously wishing I had seen the river for the full house, but my thinking when the 999 was on the board was that one may already have a Jack. With the river to come I figured they were both loose and may have almost any random x card with Ax or Kx. Both have shown some pretty creative starting hand selections. So with that I figure I'm probably in a lottery with a one in three chance of hitting my King or Queen on the river. Since MP3 bet on the turn, I'm thinking he's got a pocket pair or Jx.
So here's what I'm trying to coagulate in my brain:
Basically the question is when the guy bets to try to decide if he is bluffing or not. Pretty scary board so usually most players fold to any bet.
What player types do you discount the bet as a probable bluff? (LA-A? sLA-A?)
What player types do you respect the bet as evidence of a boat or quads? (TP-P? LP-P?)
What about the middle of the road players? (sLA-P, sLP-A)
Last note: Is this the right board? I was in a toss up between software for using poker tracker and general poker theory for categorizing opponents. I'm a newbie so advice is welcome.
Any links to good discussions of applying opponent stats to optimize play would be appreciated.