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JeffBship
12-03-2004, 05:40 PM
How do you apply opponent statistics during play?

I've been searching and looking through posts for a couple days and I haven't been able to find a good discussion of this question. I'm a newbie (<5000 hands) in poker tracker. It has already opened my eyes to my own play and is clearly a great tool if only for that. I also use it in table selection.

But what about during actual play? Any good examples of situations where you act differently based on the stats of the opponent?

Here's an example hand question. This situation should be fairly rare, but has come up five or six times in the last couple days for some reason:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks.

Turn: (2 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, SB calls, Hero folds, UTG folds.

River: (4 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 5 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 4 BB, won by MP3.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to MP3.</font>


Here's the stats on the final two at the time:
SB {{TOT HANDS: 62 DESC: Fishy LP-P VP$IP: 47 PFR: 3 AF-TOT: 1.2}}&gt;
MP3 {{TOT HANDS: 86 DESC: Fishy LP-P VP$IP: 73 PFR: 0 AF-TOT: 0.4}}&gt;

So after the fact I'm obviously wishing I had seen the river for the full house, but my thinking when the 999 was on the board was that one may already have a Jack. With the river to come I figured they were both loose and may have almost any random x card with Ax or Kx. Both have shown some pretty creative starting hand selections. So with that I figure I'm probably in a lottery with a one in three chance of hitting my King or Queen on the river. Since MP3 bet on the turn, I'm thinking he's got a pocket pair or Jx.

So here's what I'm trying to coagulate in my brain:
Basically the question is when the guy bets to try to decide if he is bluffing or not. Pretty scary board so usually most players fold to any bet.

What player types do you discount the bet as a probable bluff? (LA-A? sLA-A?)
What player types do you respect the bet as evidence of a boat or quads? (TP-P? LP-P?)
What about the middle of the road players? (sLA-P, sLP-A)

Last note: Is this the right board? I was in a toss up between software for using poker tracker and general poker theory for categorizing opponents. I'm a newbie so advice is welcome.

Any links to good discussions of applying opponent stats to optimize play would be appreciated.

JeffBship
12-03-2004, 06:06 PM
Follow up before someone tells me I only had 6 outs and that's not a one in three chance to hit the river (6 outs is 1:6.7): What I meant to say was that I had equal chances with the others of pairing a hole card on the river. If none paired then I'm playing my King kicker against loose/passives who've already shown some strength. I figured it was a bad bet.

holdemfan
12-03-2004, 10:12 PM
I use poker tracker for many reasons but the biggest help at your point might be to track your stats AS YOU PLAY. If you are above 22% VP$IP your playing to many hands and its usually due to early position. You should be around 18%. Preflop raise should be around 6-8% and your agression factor without prflp above 1.5 but strive for 2+. Just working on reaching these stats for yourself will cause you to look at how you are playing in a new way. Your win %at show down will go up and $ per 100 hands will also increase.
Second use is to see how the other players rate. By improving your numbers you will automatically know what kind of hands they play and what kind of position they play them because you learn progressivly what is done or not done to achieve the numbers. You will look at their basic numbers and remember what you did when you were at that stage. They are doing the same. As an example I know that if their VP$IP is 40%+ they will be playing face card with any thing same suit and an A is good regardless of kicker.
You also can look up the types of hands they usually raise with. If I am up against a VP$IP of 12 I know they have something good. If their prflp raise is 1% and they raise in EPosition Im dumping all but big pairs.
I also look for a table that doesn't have to many of either the VP$IP 15-19%/5-10%pflp/aggr 1.5%+ (The better players) or VP$IP 40%+/5%+pflp/aggr 1.5%+ (The players who will eventually loose all their $ but will cost you when they hit their hands) The second players will usually have huge jumps in stacks by hitting hands but give it back in the long run. You can benifit from this but too many of them on one table will change the game into a game of who has the best draw. give me one or two but more and Im gone. I'm okay with 4 good players but if there are not at least 2 or 3 who are sl or loose and passive I'm gone. You should be cautious with the good players unitll you reach these levels because what you don't know will hurt you. Good thing is you will reap the rewards as one of these players who will have that unknown advantage. Don't worry about rocks who play 10% and are passive. They play quality hands and are very predictable. If they play and come out charging get out with all but the best of hands.
Remember that its hard to get a real read on players untill you have at least 30+ hands but actually more valid after 100. I would be interested in knowing your VP$IP/PFLP%/Aggr %.
There is a great thread by Bisonbison on Poker Tracker. If I find it again I'll come back and link it.
Hope this helps. Its only my humble opinion.
Holdemfan

holdemfan
12-03-2004, 10:26 PM
You will find this useful
poker traker use (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlinker.php?Cat=&amp;Entry=52165&amp;F_Board=micro&amp;Threa d=923884&amp;partnumber=&amp;postmarker=)