Poll: What should Hero's strategy be on the turn?

[btspider]

This hand generated a fairly good discussion in the micros, so I wanted to see a poll response on it from you guys. Let's call it a typical Party 2/4 game with no reads (our second hand).

note: the river decision assumes you do not improve. if you have issues with the river decision phrasing, clarify them in a response.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="red">UTG+1 caps</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero...

[private joker]

<font color="white"> I don't see what betting the turn does for you. If he was jamming a flush draw he just hit it. If he had you beat, then you're betting a worse hand. But since the turn gave you the nut flush draw, check-call. If you hit an A or a K on the river, bet and call a raise (he still might have a set of fives or something). If you hit a spade, it plays itself.

But since you said the river doesn't improve you, I still check-call the turn and call one bet on the river. I think that's better than betting the turn, calling a raise, and folding to one bet on the river. Both scenarios cost 2BB, and with the former, you get a showdown. Furthermore, there's a chance the turn will get checked through (albeit very small).

The only thing I'm worried about is if opponent was jamming an OESD. In that case, you have the best hand and should be value betting both the turn and river. But since this is a typical loose 2/4 table, I don't give opponent credit for capping the flop on a straight draw against two opponents. (For that matter, I wouldn't credit him for capping it with a flush draw either, because since you have the K he doesn't have the nut draw). This makes it more likely that you're beat unless you improve on the river.

I haven't read the micro thread on this yet, so I may turn out to look like the idiot I am. </font>

[btspider]

in white
<font color="white">good post, that's pretty much the discussion. do we mind a raise on the turn with our decent equity. does a raise on the turn clean up some counterfeiting outs. does a raise on the turn allow us to fold the river safely, thus making the turn bet superior to calling down in terms of charging straight draws, buying counterfeiting outs, making more when we hit the flush, etc</font>
end white

[MHarris]

I voted to check-call, and I'd re-evaluste on the river. You're likely behind here, to a set, A5/A6, or a jammed flush draw that's made now. If you bet the turn, I say you're getting raised 90% of the time. Since you picked up the nut flush draw, on the river I'd attempt to c/r if it got there, if not check/call the river also.

[kendal14]

I definitely check-call if unimproved on the river. Like another response, raising on the turn and folding on the river to a raise means you do not get a showdown (0% change of taking a big pot) and no information on a player that you just sat down with. I imagine at a typical 2/4 table a set is what you are up against rather than a Ax (two pair), but maybe I'm giving to much credit.

If it gets checked through on the turn I would use a two pair read versus a set. I also do not think the flop gets capped on an str8 or flush draw (especially not nut flush), but stranger and dumber things have happened.

[Entity]

I'd bet/call a raise, fold river UI. It's tough to fold TPTK but if someone is raising me (again) in a protected pot, I can't see my hand being good here UI on the river.

I feel like bet/calling a raise earns me the most, because the likelihood of a river checkraise working when there are 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gifs on the board seems rather low, and I don't think I need to see a showdown here against typical opponents.

Rob

[meep_42]

I missed a memo, what characterizes a "protected" pot?

-d

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I missed a memo, what characterizes a "protected" pot?

-d

[/ QUOTE ]
In this case, MP3's calling everything in sight. So UTG+1 is likely to be raising a great hand, because he knows he's likely to be called in one, if not two or more, places.

If he (MP3) springs to life on the turn I'm definitely no good UI on the river; even if he just calls, I can't see UTG+1 raising this turn with any hands that I beat UI. If I bet the turn, UTG+1 raises, MP3 folds...then my decision becomes a little more difficult on the river, but I still think it's a fold unless I hit a K or, of course, a spade.

Rob

[btspider]

it seems like SS is split as well as the micro forum was, tho I think the micro'ers leaned more towards betting and calling a raise.

the original hand, Hero was meep_42 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1332497&amp;page=1&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;vc=1)

results:
Turn:
Hero checks, as does everyone else. (oops?)

River (some total blank, say 2h):
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

UTG+1 has 55 for the flopped set, MHING
MP3 has AQ

[SomethingClever]

I picked the unpopular "bet, call a raise and call the river" option because I think you see an A with a worse kicker overplaying his hand a decent amount of the time here.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]

The only thing I'm worried about is if opponent was jamming an OESD. In that case, you have the best hand...

[/ QUOTE ]
No, in that case you may have the best hand. Either of the other two opponents who were content to call all bets on the flop could easily have been on spades and just got there. By itself, that wouldn't be a big enough factor to scare you out of betting, but combined with the chance that flop aggressor has you beat (either with a turned flush or something that was already ahead on the flop), it turns this into a clear check on the turn (which means that I am mostly agreeing with you).