Power Ratings

I've read the books by Bob McCune, Trace Fields, etc. and none of them really reveal how to make your own line (one sharper than the book's line) which appears to be the key to sports betting. Does anyone have at least a starting point (computer software, formulas, books, whatever) for making your own power ratings and lines.

Its not everything its cracked up to be. There are way too many variables to put into a book or even think about yourself to make a line that is that accurate. Besides if someone had a method that was very solid its highly unlikely to be in a book. If it was that line creating method would be out of date shortly after the book goes into print.


Here is the secret though. Say a line is made with 20 "blocks" of information. Chances are 15 of those are similar to what the books get. The 5 that are different is where you have to be better than average at. Those are your specialty considerations, things like current form, momentum, injuries, matchups, things of this type of nature that won't show up in a simple computerized format. Instead of replicating your 15 similar blocks and spending time on that, focus on what makes your selection method better than the books. That is why its not really important, IMO, to come up with a line. Spot situations you feel the posted number will be off for specific reasons and then look to see if you have your perceived difference. Lets face it if you are doing a daily sport you can guess 9 times out of 10 what the number will be to a fairly close target. That one time its off investigate why it is off. Then among the 9 that are where you thought they would be, take your situational/matchup handicapping and put it to use. I would suggest daily line creation only to those that have a ton of time on their hands. When you create lines you often find them to be off a little bit, but there are also going to be factors that you are aware of that make it reasonable for the number to be off or at least create enough doubt for you to pass the game anyways. Rote line creation and comparison will always be marginally successful at best.

"9 times out of 10 you can guess the line"...says wildbill...then in reality you are creating your own line intuitively, not by a detailed dogmatic method, but you are still comparing it to your idea of what the line should be, as a part of the process, aren't you...gl