Irregularity of SNG results

[ThorGoT]

I've been consistently tracking my SNG results for 55 sessions (4-tabling), and I noticed a certain 'irregularity' in the results -- about two-thirds of the net profit came in two streaks, of about 5 sessions apiece, and there were four streaks in which I lost approximately 8 buyins. So although the trend is upwards, it isn't a smooth progression. Now, I can think of four possible explanations: (1) small sample size; (2) my opponents during certain periods are better or worse than during other periods; (3) in some stretches, I am playing particularly well or poorly; or (4) this is just the kind of look that SNG results will have (e.g., like the stock market). Not knowing much about statistics, I don't know if (1) is the case; not having a larger sample, I don't know if (4) is the case. I do think (2) & (3) are playing a role. I was curious whether other people (perhaps with a larger sample size or who know more about statistics) have noticed their results having the same 'look' to them or have other insights to offer. Obviously, if it was possible to determine when these streaks would occur before the fact (rather than identifying them after the fact), it would be advantageous.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been consistently tracking my SNG results for 55 sessions (4-tabling), and I noticed a certain 'irregularity' in the results -- about two-thirds of the net profit came in two streaks, of about 5 sessions apiece, and there were four streaks in which I lost approximately 8 buyins. So although the trend is upwards, it isn't a smooth progression. Now, I can think of four possible explanations: (1) small sample size; (2) my opponents during certain periods are better or worse than during other periods; (3) in some stretches, I am playing particularly well or poorly; or (4) this is just the kind of look that SNG results will have (e.g., like the stock market). Not knowing much about statistics, I don't know if (1) is the case; not having a larger sample, I don't know if (4) is the case. I do think (2) & (3) are playing a role. I was curious whether other people (perhaps with a larger sample size or who know more about statistics) have noticed their results having the same 'look' to them or have other insights to offer. Obviously, if it was possible to determine when these streaks would occur before the fact (rather than identifying them after the fact), it would be advantageous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally normal variance. Don't worry about it. Play your best game every time, that's all you can do.

eastbay

[Vetstadium]

Same here I will notice swings too but in long run winning more than losing. I will maybe go 2 for ten than bam 4 for 5 or whatever. This is for over total of prob 1000 SNG's so part of the game I have come to realize or think.