Questionable play, need advice on pre-flop raise.

[EnderFFX]

I'm going to guess at the numbers cause this happened last night.

4 people left, i'm in 3rd (Poker Stars) around 2000, 2nd is around 4-5k, 4th is around 350, blinds are 200-400.

4th is BB and all in Pre-Flop (obviously)
I'm dealt AKo, I don't even blink and push all in.
Then I blink and think, ok, maybe I should have just called and someone else would have called and we could have just checked down.
2nd place, ahead of me, calls with 88. (whoops)
1st place, chills, and folds.

4th place has Q2o, flop comes QQx, and no improvement.

I take 4th. (doh)

Should I have called the all in by the BB and made a decision on the flop? Looking back I'm thinking I should have just checked it down. (if 88 was willing) If I check, and 88 raises post-flop, I'm going to assume he has a good hand because he wouldn't want to get me out because of the combined outs we have to knock 4th out of the money and get us in.

Maybe this is a bad content post, but the more I think about it, the more I think that if I had thought for just a second, I would have just called and saved my self some chips and made another run at the money.

Hind sight is always 50-50 though.

[zephyr]

[ QUOTE ]
Should I have called the all in by the BB and made a decision on the flop? Looking back I'm thinking I should have just checked it down. (if 88 was willing) If I check, and 88 raises post-flop, I'm going to assume he has a good hand because he wouldn't want to get me out because of the combined outs we have to knock 4th out of the money and get us in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your analysis is good here. Call preflop, and be willing to muck if you're raised preflop, or if the flop doesn't hit you.

Zephyr

[EnderFFX]

I had been playing pretty much on auto, and didn't even think there would be a time to just call with AKo, till I had raised all-in and realized another option might be smart.

Live and learn /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[etgryphon]

Yes, you should have called the BB preflop.

I'm sure that the guy would have called and if he popped it up with a raise then you can fold our push if you want to.

In a situation like this you want to just cover the BB because you don't want to give someone the reason to come into the pot. By making the call you are sending the message that I got something that will cover this guy. This gives someone the incentive to drop it where as if you go all in you are making the play a +EV call for anyone else with a PP. Calling here shows more strength than pushing.

BTW, the BB got lucky...I wish i could get lucky like that. I think it is funny that the better I get at playing the less lucky i get it seems. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

-Gryph

[EnderFFX]

Thanks for confirming what I thought. I made a rash decision and paid for it. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

As far as the luck thing, the reason why it seems like you get less lucky is because you are getting put in less and less situations where you need luck to pull you out. (because of your improvement) You remember the lucky times more than anything, and since there are fewer of those situations, you have less chance at having a memorable situation.

In other words, the less you need luck, the better you are /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Unarmed]

Depending on the level, I think a push here is automatic. With BB going out I push here with a whole lot less than AK. Unless villain read you for a steal given BB's situation, thats a questionable call with 88.

[EnderFFX]

When he called, I was praying that he had like AQo. Whenever I've been pushing with AK lately, About half of my calls are low pocket pairs, and half of my calls are a dominated Ace.

I think pushing, and calling are obviously both +EV. I'm just curious which situation is higher in EV.

[ColdestCall]

You are in a pretty tough situation here. At first glance it seemed to me that just calling is the best option, but if 2nd or first are any kind of player, one of them is likely to move in on you. They have to figure that you are going to fold at least 75% of the time, and then they will be risking 350 to win 950. They should make this play with a wide variety of hands, and they probably will, in which case you have just burned up 20% of your stack. From the size of the chip stacks it doesnt look like you have a good shot at finishing first in this tournament, and the small blind is going to complete with any two (plus the button may flat call and double team the short stack with the SB). So....and this will probably provoke some folks....toss your AK right into the muck and take your (at least) 50/50 shot of getting into the money on that hand. If you cant bear the thought of laying down AK, then shove them all in and hope for the best (there are very few hands that should call your all-in, and 88 isnt one of them)

BTW, before reading your post I would also have pushed without hesitation in this situation, and I'm still not sure I could lay down AK here, but you've really gotten me thinking about what is the best play in this not all that uncommon situation...

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
So....and this will probably provoke some folks....toss your AK right into the muck and take your (at least) 50/50 shot of getting into the money on that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If its a massive tournament and 3rd pays a a couple thousand, then I agree. But if its one of 100 SNGs Hero will play in a week/month then just push it, not doing so is criminal IMO. If Hero is paranoid about not making the money in a single SNG then move down a buy-in.

My 2 cents.

[UMTerp]

I've thought about this for a while, and still don't know what the "right" answer is. I think this is a rare situation where it might be right to just flat-call, but you have to be prepared to call a push if someone comes over you, and there's a decent chance they will if they're competent players.

If only called preflop, I'd go all-in if an A or K came out, and fold to any bet if I missed.

[ColdestCall]

LOL - that didn't take long...

But the absolute dollar value of third, or the number of SNG's Hero is playing that week have very little relevance towards determining the relative EV's of pushing, folding and calling, which is what I am interested in doing. If it turned out that folding added $2 more to Hero's EV here, and he faced this sort of situation 3,000 times over his poker lifetime, we're starting to get into the realm of real money, and he should fold. If pushing adds more, he should push. I'm leaving out considerations of added volatility versus added EV, because I am assuming Hero is playing to a sufficient bankroll...

[adanthar]

With 2K in your stack, you have to push. You can't limp/fold *and* you have too many chips to play for third.

If you had 1K or less, I think limping becomes better.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
With 2K in your stack, you have to push. You can't limp/fold *and* you have too many chips to play for third.

[/ QUOTE ]

Help me understand how this is a required push. I'm not looking for an ICM analysis as I think it would be too assumption driven based on what hands a big stack would call your push with (for example my assumption would be that 88 would fold- clearly not true here).

To me a push by hero is too risky when the reward is T600 in blinds. Clearly the T600 is important at this stage, but I don't see it worth the risk of busting in 4th when such a clear path to the $$ is available. Yes, Hero would need to lose to both the caller and the small stack in the BB to bust here, but AK is a drawing hand, and this type of loss is very possible. I think the priority with these stack sizes should be to get ITM first and foremost. A multi-way pot is the BEST method to accomplish this, and the $10-$55 tables will accomodate with a multi-way pot VERY frequently (i.e. a steal from the big-stack is not imminent). So.... I like the call with AK here.

I guess my simple thought process is this: A stack of T2600 (vs. my stack of T2000) will not increase my chances for first to an extent that it is worth the risk of busting here. This is amplified by the fact that my BEST chance of getting ITM is to have a multi-way pot with the short stack all in (even HU with SS with my AK I'm probably only 60/40 favorite).

I'm rambling now, but I'd like additional clarification as to why you view this as a clear push.

thanks,
-EV

[adanthar]

Only a handful of hands should call this push (88 is making a very bad call; it should be maybe JJ+). If he's looser, though, you are a huge favorite or very small dog to almost anything he does call with.

On the other hand, you underestimate the big stack's willingness to raise all in with any two cards once he sees you limping. It does happen all the time, unless he suspects you have aces. Plus, now 88 can just complete. Bad karma.

Rather than hoping he folds, I welcome the call. Considering just how unlikely the BB is to beat both AK and the call, I treat this as an opportunity to easily double up (or steal 600, which works fine for me, too) or almost certainly take third.

Like I said, take away 1000 chips and this is much closer to a call.