Winky's HAND ANALYSIS #5

[winky51]

Party Poker 3/6 (10 handed)
Hero has Kh, As and is EP2

Hero raises, MP2 calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds

Flop(5 1/3 SB): 7c, 2d, 4d

Hero bets, MP2 calls

Turn(3 2/3 BB): Ks

Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls

River(9 2/3 BB): Ad

Hero bets, MP2 calls

MY THOUGHTS: This other player had been raising the turn all night with TP. I was a little annoyed and reraised him when the king hit figuring he did it again (KQ, KJ, KT for him). But maybe the play was to call, call since he might be bluffing or have a set.

If he was bluffing a reraise would have made him fold I lose a BB because he would try to bluff again on the river -EV

If he has a set I lose a bet with that raise or have to fold on the turn to a reraise from him -EV

RESULTS in white <font color="white"> MP2 JhKc </font>

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
If he was bluffing a reraise would have made him fold I lose a BB because he would try to bluff again on the river -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't be sure he will bluff again at the river. Actually, if he's on a pure bluff, I don't think many players bluff again at the river. Based on the small chance he's on a bluff, I don't think calling and 3-betting the turn have much difference in EV, both plays EV will be close to 0 IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
If he has a set I lose a bet with that raise or have to fold on the turn to a reraise from him -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

In the rare case of him having a set, you lose anywhere from 1 - 3 more BBs (these 1-3 BBs does not include 2 BBs put in at the turn.)
-you 3-bet and he caps, you say you will fold (-1BB)
-you 3-bet and he calls, then calls another bet on the river (-2BB)
-you 3-bet and he calls, then raises you at the river (-3BB)
-you call the raise and call a bet at the river -(1 BB)

You failed to mention the EV of him having an inferior hand that he will call down with which I think is the greatest possibility. The EV of a 3-bet here is +2BBs, where calling down, the EV is +1BB.

So, after all this, 3-betting is still correct, IMO.

Hope this made a little bit of sense.