no read, no thanks

[Tommy Angelo]

$20-40. I raised UTG with black pocket jacks. All folded to the big blind who called. Headsup. The flop was A-8-7 with two hearts. The big blind bet out.

My profile on him is that when he is in the middle of a hand, I do not read him well. On this hand, I believed he might bet out on the flop with an ace or better, or he might checkraise with an ace or better, or he might bet out on the flop with a draw, or he might checkraise with a draw. He had not been properly trained yet for the day which meant that with me calling along, I thought he was likely to keep leading on the turn and river, with an ace, or a straight, or a flush, or a busted draw, and I wouldn't know which was what.

The big blind bet out on the flop and I folded and it felt right. He showed K-9 of hearts and I still liked it. Comments?

Tommy

[Peter_rus]

I would raise it, fold if 3-betted, lead turn and check river if called. Fold turn if c/rsed. It's standart line. Additional line to call flop and raise turn. Fold if 3-betted or check river if called.

[DeeJ]

Agreed, but what check at the river - check-call or check-fold? Some here would say you should always bet-fold at the river if you are going to put one bet in @ the river (b-f usually being better than c-c against most players).

[Senor Choppy]

He's got 9 flush card outs, 3 K outs, and a backdoor worth another out. He's not the favorite, but he's pretty close to a coinflip given 2 cards to come, so a fold here isn't disastrous even if you knew his hand.

If his range of hands is exactly an ace, a flush draw, or a straight draw, I think a fold might actually be correct, given that you're only a marginal favorite over the last two but are a huge dog to the first, and he's more likely to have Ax than a specific draw.

If his range includes middle pair though, then the fold isn't looking so hot :/

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
He's got 9 flush card outs, 3 K outs, and a backdoor worth another out. He's not the favorite, but he's pretty close to a coinflip given 2 cards to come, so a fold here isn't disastrous even if you knew his hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Folding a coinflip is a much worse mistake than calling a bet on the flop when you are losing.

[Kevin J]

Default folding here is weak. But there's a reason why the semi-bluff is such a useful and powerful play. It's because good players are SUPPOSED to fold the best hand every once in a while, even when they suspect they might be doing so. I think Tommy did fine.

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not the favorite, but he's pretty close to a coinflip given 2 cards to come, so a fold here isn't disastrous even if you knew his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If all the money were in on the flop it's a $45+ mistake.

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, but what check at the river - check-call or check-fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tommy has position. The river play is to check behind.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
If his range of hands is exactly an ace, a flush draw, or a straight draw, I think a fold might actually be correct, given that you're only a marginal favorite over the last two but are a huge dog to the first, and he's more likely to have Ax than a specific draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold can't be good here never until you're sure for more than 46% he have ace. You can't be sure for that as he would bet draws as well according to reads. Assuming standart defence hands (if Tommy had precise reads on defence these numbers changed) he has straight or flush draw around 60% of time and an ace - 40.

Even sweet calling down will cost you 2.5BB, here are already 2BB in a pot. So if you pay 2.5BB and win 4.5BB more than 37% of time - you must call if you like calling or gather more info (if its possible) about opponents hand right here by raising.

With 40/60 probability of ace/draw we win pot in 1 case in 10% of time and in second around 60% of time. Which will results 40% (4+36) of winning the pot which is higher than 37.

Just tell me his BB defence standarts and i'll provide you with correct answer.

Anyway i think this fold is bad giving read quite often.

P.S. I recount my cyphers and change borderline probability of ace to 46.

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
If all the money were in on the flop it's a $45+ mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a huge mistake to think of it in these terms, precisely because Tommy DOES have more money on the table. It assumes his opponent will never have an ace, or bigger draw. It also assumes that Tommy would never fold a winner later on in the hand, such as when his opponent was betting a str8 draw and the board came running diamonds, or he was betting a diamond draw and four to a str8 came, or betting any draw and a K,Q came, etc.

Again, I think that semi-bluffs are supposed to work sometimes. I knew a guy who started getting paranoid about being semi-bluffed. He began refusing to fold any time there was a chance his opponent was semi-bluffing. He doesn't play anymore.

[Kevin J]

Are you taking into consideration that his draw doesn't always have to hit? He could be betting one draw and the board comes scary in another way.. THIS I believe, is what makes Tommy's fold Ok. Although the first thing I said, is that default folding is weak...

[Peter_rus]

Actually he have very few ways of straight draw here giving default defense options so the only scaring card is heart. I talked about calling down all the way regardless of turn and river, if Tommy would fold if heart comes he will win much more than i mentioned and would call a flop even if probability of ace is way higher than 46%.

P.S. He has straight draw according to my numbers around 7% of time. 51% is a flush draw. And around 2% both straight (gap or open)and flush draw.

[Monkeyslacks]

Here's the original statement:

[ QUOTE ]
He's got 9 flush card outs, 3 K outs, and a backdoor worth another out. He's not the favorite, but he's pretty close to a coinflip given 2 cards to come, so a fold here isn't disastrous even if you knew his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding if you knew his hand is a huge mistake. Even if all you knew was that you were %50 to win and called down every time you would be giving away $45. If you knew you could fold if a heart hit it becomes really disastrous.

This isn't a complete analysis of the hand, but you have to consider this aspect if you intend to give the hand a complete analysis...

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you taking into consideration that his draw doesn't always have to hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand is a good example of that. Even though his opponent is semi-bluffing a flush draw, he also has a king overcard (although neither player knows this). Tommy is ahead on the flop, but his JsJc is surprisingly only about a 53/47 favorite.

[Senor Choppy]

[ QUOTE ]
it's a $45+ mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is still not the disaster that folding to a bet from middle pair or a pure bluff would be.

[andyfox]

"He's not the favorite, but he's pretty close to a coinflip given 2 cards to come"

Indeed. 52-48 in Tommy's favor, according to Twodimes.

[AceHigh]

Wouldn't a draw be more likely because the big blind is going to fold a lot of Ax hands vs. an early position raiser?

A lot of players will sooner defend with suited connectors (and pairs of course) thinking your most likely hand are big Aces.

So, keeping with the PAG Tommy, shouldn't he/you call down unless a 3rd heart appears on the board?

[Monkeyslacks]

And that is what the hand really comes down to: what range of hands do you give an unknown here?

[Senor Choppy]

There's also the weird mojo that Tommy has surrounding him to take into account.

I have no idea whether people are less or more liking to bet draws into Tommy given his 'unique' image, but someone with more familiarity with his game probably has a good idea of weighted averages for a hand like this.

It's hard not to think that people are going to be betting all sorts of garbage into him on these types of flops.

[andyfox]

"He had not been properly trained yet for the day"

Properly trained by whom? If by you, why not start right then and there by raising the flop?

"He showed K-9 of hearts"

You never show and yet they feel the urge to show you. Cool!

[Chizoad]

If operating in a void of information makes you want to fold your hand, you should probably take up chess where you can see everything that's going on /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Seriously, your read (or lack thereof) says maybe you're 50/50 to win the hand, and there's money in the pot. Raising is the standard play here, but calling down would be OK too. Both are better than folding.

Chiz