Turn decision

[sfer]

SB is a calling station. BB is a LAG. MP1 is on the tight side but not 2+2 tight. Button is CDC, who appears to be on his best behavior. And 8 tabling.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (15 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero...

Do I have enough to call on the turn?

[joker122]

yes. since you bet into him on the flop instead of checkraising his intended line could be to raise the flop, bet the turn, and take a free showdown with such hands as QQ, AJ, or TT. He could also be raising for a free card with a hand like AQ. You could be against another QK. This is a hand other than AA, KK, AK, or JJ often enough to see the river and probably a showdown.

[sfer]

He's never 3-betting my UTG raises with KQ. And unless he has A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif he has a real hand to raise into 4 of us. QQ/AJ/TT are not likely.

[ecooke]

The pot is huge on the Flop which gives you a couple of confounding concerns:
1. Betting is not going to protect your hand (even with a raise)
2. You may already be way behind the Button.
That said, in this case I like a Turn c/r since it will better protect your hand and the Button will not likely three bet you without a very strong holding – allowing you to drop the river unimproved.

Regardless, I think you can at least get to the river with 5 outs.
I do not fold the Turn in this case.

[Shillx]

It's close here. MP1 doesn't help your cause as a river Q might give him a straight. The Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif could give him a flush. It's unlikely given that he didn't 3-bet the flop, but he might be slowplaying something big. Even if none of this is the case, I don't know if a Q or K helps the hero here. CDC has position on you and will punish you when you make a second best hand (ie a King comes and he has AK) and might get off easy if he senses that you outdrew him (ie. a King comes and he has AA). Folding seems reasonable here.

Brad

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Regardless, I think you can at least get to the river with 5 outs.
I do not fold the Turn in this case.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're not giving enough consideration to how powerful my holding may be. sfer may have 5 outs here some of the time, but on average, his weighted outs is actually much less.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

this is actually a relatively simple decision, solvable purely by math.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
you're not giving enough consideration to how powerful my holding may be.

[/ QUOTE ]
hahahahaha. Funniest post ever. /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ecooke]

[ QUOTE ]
sfer may have 5 outs here some of the time, but on average, his weighted outs is actually much less.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a legitimate point. With that in mind, if he believes he's very likely dominated, then should he even call the PF 3-bet?

[Evan]

Yes, don't fold for one bet preflop once you've entered the pot.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a legitimate point. With that in mind, if he believes he's very likely dominated, then should he even call the PF 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 13 to 1 on the call.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
He's never 3-betting my UTG raises with KQ. And unless he has A Q he has a real hand to raise into 4 of us. QQ/AJ/TT are not likely

[/ QUOTE ]

if you knew that then why did you post the hand?

edit - didn't realize CDC was button. my question remains though: what's hard about this turn fold?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
if you knew that then why did you post the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the pot big enough to call?

[damaniac]

13 to 1 odds to hit what? If we are going to play fearing making TP, then we need odds to hit...2 pair? Trips? An OESD? Not to mention balancing that with the times we hit TP, bet/raise to find out where we are, then fold, assuming we are dominated. If that's the thinking, does this make sense mathematically, with implied odds? (A serious question, I don't know)

[sfer]

13 to 1 is preflop.

Worrying about TP is on the turn, after CDC raised 4 players on the flop and bet into 2 players on the turn.

[ecooke]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting 13 to 1 on the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I'm not folding to the third bet either.
Therefore, if 5 outs is two robust, then let's call it 4 with the “potential domination factor” and I will still employ the same rational as before.
My bottom line: with TPGK in a large pot I think he needs to make the Button's play as difficult as possible while getting to the River.

[joker122]

when he 3bets pre and raises your flop bet his holdings can be narrowed down to AA, AK, KK, and JJ.
AA = 6 ways, 5 outs
KK = 1 way, 0 outs
JJ = 2 ways, 0 outs
AK = 8 ways, 3 outs

35% of the time you will have 4 outs, 47% of the time you will have 3 outs, and 11.5% of the time you will be drawing dead, giving you an average 2.81 outs. getting 11.5:1 you don't have odds to call a bet here.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
when he 3bets pre and raises your flop bet his holdings can be narrowed down to AA, AK, KK, and JJ.
AA = 6 ways, 5 outs
KK = 1 way, 0 outs
JJ = 2 ways, 0 outs
AK = 8 ways, 3 outs

35% of the time you will have 4 outs, 47% of the time you will have 3 outs, and 11.5% of the time you will be drawing dead, giving you an average 2.81 outs. getting 11.5:1 you don't have odds to call a bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is precisely the answer I was looking for.

BTW, sfer actually called this turn bet and folded the river unimproved and I IMed him about it and we both quickly agreed that the turn should be folded because you won't have enough weighted outs to make this call, no to mention how he might actually "improve" his hand and lose more bets then he should.

This is actually pretty basic hand reading and this kind of analysis is pretty important in making these kind of descisions. I actually coudldn't figure out the exact math in my head on the spot, but playing the hand out, I thought to myself if sfer has KQ he has about 2.5 outs on average against what I might be holding. I wasn't that far off.

[BottlesOf]

What about AQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif?

Hey!! There's 1 of those!!!!!!!!!!

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
This is actually pretty basic hand reading and this kind of analysis is pretty important in making these kind of descisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's an easy fold against an opponent he knows as well as you, but how often does he know someone that well? What I mean to ask is, are you still folding to an unknown?

[ecooke]

Oh wow - I suppose if you really have an airtight feel for the hands your opponents holdings then this play is legit. That said, how well do you need to know your opponent to pull this fold off?
Arg! the pot is 11 BB on the Turn - even with only 3 outs on average you only need approx 1:14 to continue (assuming TPGK is bunk). Seriously, my mind is boggled, I cannot fold in this situation.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
It's an easy fold against an opponent he knows as well as you, but how often does he know someone that well? What I mean to ask is, are you still folding to an unknown?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends. If I saw VPIP &lt; 20 and PFR around &lt; 11 I would make this fold now.

Good post on the hand probabilities, joker.