Party 5/10: Heads up against Unknown with nut no pair

[Jeff W]

I'd like to post a read and I usually do, but my opponent in this case is an unknown. Is this calldown -EV?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Qd, As.
3 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 7c, Kc, 6s (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Ks (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (6 BB) 3c (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB
Main Pot: 8 BB, between SB and Hero.

[jrobb83]

The EV is probably close, but I would fold against an unknown at the 5/10. Pot's not quite large enough for me to call down here.

[The Setup]

I think this hand is very dependant on a decent read, however against an unknown I fold the turn. Can't imagine the call down being profitable in the long run.

[Schneids]

I'd play the hand the same way in 10/20.

EV-wise I think calling down or folding on the turn are close. I often see ace-rag make these stupid turn bet outs. Raising on the turn has some merit if you have an inkling of suspicion SB would fold baby pocket pairs to your raise (since this bet out can often be a feeler type of bet where people are betting and planning to fold if raised)...this of course requires at least a hair of a read though.

[usmfan]

What about the club flush draw? Perhaps the SB is checking the flop with just a club draw instead of trying to jam the pot. This seems reasonable given that you two are HU at that point, he wants to pick up his club cheaply. On the other hand you could be dealing with a baby pair as suggested. For that reason, I like Schneids suggestion of the turn raise, especially if you are willing to call down. Easy fold if 3bet on the turn and you will likely buy a check on the river unless you're already beat anyways. I am not putting SB on a K of any kind, even a rag.
As I'm typing I realize that SB raised PF and called your 3bet. This makes me think pp (99-JJ) but not QQ or else he probably caps PF.
Maybe it's a leak in my game, but I don't call this down once the K comes on the turn. As mentioned, pot's just not big enough to chase your overcards and you might be beat on a flush.

[wheelz]

I see that my opponent has nothing after one of these stupid bets enough of the time that I might call down there. Plus you get to pick up a read on him, so won't find yourself in that situation again next time.

[JimmyJazz1]

I don't understand how you could ever call this down unless you had on a read on your opponent as extremely lag. In what situations can you call down unless that is the case?

[naphand]

One of the purposes of the call down is to obtain precisely the read you don't have. The bet out on the Turn could be a K, or more likely a PP or 6/7 IMO, and opponent wants to test for another K (though it is a strange test, as they still call down even when 3-bet). It could be a weak K, or it could be a bluff. Calling down here sometimes wins, but will always provide useful info on his opponent.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't understand how you could ever call this down unless you had on a read on your opponent as extremely lag. In what situations can you call down unless that is the case?

[/ QUOTE ]

What naphand said. Plus you can extrapolate the EV based on the average tendencies of your opponents. I would not make this calldown at 5/10, and definately not at more passive games. I would, however, make the calldown in the Party 10/20 6max, since the average player there tends to make wonky turn bets like this with nothing.

[Jeff W]

My opponent had AKo.

I am surprised that opinions were polarized on what is a typical hand. To call the turn I have to surmise that I will win the hand 1/3 times. HU BB vs. SB I have to believe that this line isn't decisively -EV. My opponent will semi-bluff a variety of hands on this turn. After reconsidering this hand, I believe folding the turn is best against an unknown.

In response to Naphand: I would never make a calldown for information purposes. Do you feel that the EV added from a calldown is enough to make an otherwise unprofitable calldown profitable here?

[naphand]

Yes. And I tend to do it more earlier in a session when most/all players are unknowns and against a particular player I have identified as being important to the table dynamics. If I get a strong read on such a player, that information can be used effectively against the player and against the rest of the table too. Where I have a situation where there is a small but reasonable chance I am winning, and calling down is marginally -EV, then the information makes up for it, certainly. Grossly -EV or situations that are hard to gain meaningful info on, or where a SD is likely with another player, obviously fold.

I cannot specifically address the table conditions you faced in this example, but there are frequently times when faced with a situation where I can either fold or call down a strange betting pattern, I opt to call down. Peter_rus when asked about a particular call down he made with Q high (to be shown J high) answered "I usually call down peculiar betting patterns" and his reasoning was that he often found them to be false (often enough to, presumably, make up for a slightly -EV situation). Yes I agree, never make a call-down just for information. You must judge the value of the information wrt the game you are in.

[TwoNiner]

Info purposes could make the call down worth it if it's close anyways, which I guess is still up for debate. First hand of a session I'd call at the 10-20. 5-10 Probably not. Along with information, there's a small bonus to letting people know (if they are paying attention) that you are willing to call down with weak hands...ex: if this guy has a baby pair.