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View Full Version : Bubble Aggression Hand Party $30+3


Jman28
12-02-2004, 10:19 PM
How's this reraise?


Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: krab3748 ( $1530 )
Seat 2: Coeuret ( $10 )
Seat 4: HERO ( $5905 )
Seat 9: jeppow ( $555 )
Trny:7606649 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to skinsftbl [ 3d 7d ]
krab3748 raises [900].
Coeuret folds.
skinsftbl raises [1700].

UMTerp
12-02-2004, 10:34 PM
If the player isn't any good, it's OK. If he's competent, he has queens minimum. It's pretty player-dependent. You obviously thought he could lay the hand down since you did it though. You have to think there's an 75%+ chance you're getting called here though.

SmileyEH
12-02-2004, 10:39 PM
No point to reraise...he is comitted already and will definetly not fold.

-SmileyEH

Jman28
12-02-2004, 10:42 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If the player isn't any good, it's OK. If he's competent, he has queens minimum. It's pretty player-dependent. You obviously thought he could lay the hand down since you did it though. You have to think there's an 75%+ chance you're getting called here though.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's semi-competent. I expected AJ and a laydown.

Jman28
12-02-2004, 10:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
No point to reraise...he is comitted already and will definetly not fold.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt he'd lay it down, lock 3rd and have a good shot at 2nd.

The small stack is going next round.

eastbay
12-02-2004, 11:29 PM
Not a play I would make. I don't think he folds enough to make it profitable. I think a lot of $33 players are stuck at $33 because of "pride calls" like this, or other "you're gonna push me around, I'll show you!" plays that are self-destructive. Unfortunately, that tendency hurts both of you here, dumping huge $EV to the players staying out of the way.

eastbay

Jman28
12-02-2004, 11:40 PM
He did call. Turned over 77, and then I flushed him. Felt kinda bad.

I guess I took aggression too far here. Thanks for the responses.

-Jman28

texasrattlers
12-03-2004, 02:30 AM
dumb?

ColdestCall
12-03-2004, 12:39 PM
I think there is nothing wrong with this reraise and you should make it every time. Krab is a dope for getting involved here with 77 and he got exactly what he deserved when you flushed on him.

Vanquish
12-03-2004, 01:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think there is nothing wrong with this reraise and you should make it every time. Krab is a dope for getting involved here with 77 and he got exactly what he deserved when you flushed on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you talking about? The only reason it is questionable for Krab to get involved is because there's a great chance he can lock up third by folding. Beyond that, I believe in an aggressive bubble strategy and my read on the situation is that I would have a good amount of folding equity because (barring monster hands) everyone is likely to sit on their hands until the short stack busts. I would have just pushed in this situation with 77 hoping to steal the blinds. Yeah yeah, you're risking a 4th place finish, but what's the saying? "Settle for fourth, gamble for first." Hero here had a huge chip lead and if Krab is looking for a win, then he needs to go after every chip he can and 77 is a pretty good bubble/blind stealing hand.

Anyway... I don't like the reraise from HERO. It relies on the assumption Krab is a poor enough player to raise for 60% of his stack and then abandon his hand to a reraise. I wouldn't make that assumption without a pretty good read. And even if I did have that read, I probably wouldn't make this play 95% of the time with as weak a hand as 37s. You're not playing back at him so much as trying for a resteal (since you have no hand at all), but again you have to have a good idea that 1) he sucks, and 2) he's on a steal attempt not supported by a decent hand. And there's usually no way to get that sort of read in this situation. Hero can easily coast into the money and if he wants to win he should be getting his money in in better situations than this one.

UMTerp
12-03-2004, 01:03 PM
The dumbest part is that he (the opponent) only raised halfway preflop. If he intended to call if reraised, he should've just pushed them in in the first place. There's no way Hero gets involved then.

eastbay
12-03-2004, 01:39 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think there is nothing wrong with this reraise and you should make it every time. Krab is a dope for getting involved here with 77 and he got exactly what he deserved when you flushed on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not Krab's play is good is irrelevant. By what analysis is the re-raise a good play?

eastbay

ThorGoT
12-03-2004, 02:18 PM
I think the "play for first, settle for fourth" attitude is overrated or, to be more charitable, inapplicable here. Crab has, essentially, a guarantee of making the money, since fourth place has only 10 chips. Once he makes the money, he can play for first without risk. That being said, when he's repopped by the big stack he reasonably should anticipate facing two overcards, with a possibility of a monster and a possibility of a complete resteal. He's looking at, say, a net 45% chance of busting out and winning nothing. Note also that big stack would always make this move with a monster; would ordinarily make this move with a good hand (e.g. two overcards); and would only sometimes make it as a complete resteal. Give it up, wait for the money, take your chances then. The converse of that is that the resteal, even with nothing, is a good play, since crab can't know you have nothing. Unless crab has a monster hand, he should give it up. So big stack can resteal with impunity. I'd say the odds that crab has a monster and is trying to induce an overbet by the big stack are a lot lower than that he made a foolish decision. Now, you might think that if he was foolish once, he might be foolish again (and call), but being put all in has a tendency to concentrate the mind. I like the resteal here, and if I were crab I'd be kicking myself for both my decisions.

ColdestCall
12-03-2004, 02:59 PM
Thor posted before I had a chance to respond and laid out the justification for the reraise very well. When Krab doesnt push, he leaves himself the opportunity to lay down his hand. Perhaps he would do this to induce a reraise, but I dont think that's likely. Anyway, Hero's reraise gives him that opportunity (to lay down his hand). In this situation I think there is an excellent chance that he will lay it down given the fact that the short stack only has 10 chips. Krab still has 630 after a laydown, and (provided it is early in the round) now has about a 94% chance of folding his way into 3rd, and a decent chance of folding his way into second seeing as how Jeppow has T 355 after posting this hand. Maybe Krab didnt think about this before he raised 900, but it is definitely going to cross his mind when he is facing possible elimination versus definite ITM, and most players would fold here after scolding themselves for having raised to begin with.

Vanquish
12-03-2004, 03:37 PM
Sorry, I've got to agree with eastbay, who said:

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he folds enough to make it profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't. You have to have a fantastic read that this was just a bluff or flat out steal in order to think he's laying it down here. He's obviously not a solid player, or he would have gone all-in to begin with. Looking at this situation with no read, I'm going to assume every time that Krab is willing to play this hand for all his chips. I would also assume that Krab has a good hand or he wouldn't make this kind of risky play when shortstack is inevitably going to be knocked out in the next hand or two. I still say it's not a good play to go for a reraise with crap against someone who just put 60% of his chips in on the bubble (without a good read).

rachelwxm
12-03-2004, 03:43 PM
I agree with eastbay here. mathematically speaking, he still should fold even he put 2/3 of his chips in the pot. He need to have better than 2.9:1 to call. Had he known your hands 73o, it's a easy call though. Against any 2, fold is a clear choice.

But the fact that he did not push at first place should make you think he is not kind of person who would lay that down.

Jman28
12-03-2004, 06:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with eastbay here. mathematically speaking, he still should fold even he put 2/3 of his chips in the pot. He need to have better than 2.9:1 to call. Had he known your hands 73o, it's a easy call though. Against any 2, fold is a clear choice.

But the fact that he did not push at first place should make you think he is not kind of person who would lay that down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this post explains it best. I didn't put enough thought into the move. I assumed that he'd be more scared of busting out than he was after that raise and I assumed I'd have a little more caught equity than I did.

Thanks for all the responses.

-Jman28

tallstack
12-03-2004, 08:26 PM
I agree with the general concensus for this hand. While you spotted an opportunity to play the bully, you may want to consider that there are lower risk bullying tactics in this situation, IMO.

This looks like an excellent opportunity to keep the bubble alive and hopefully dwindle krab down in the process. He will have to post the BB next hand with the tiny stack UTG. Since you effectively have first action on both the next two hands (the tiny stack really doesn't change anything if he calls or not). I would raise all-in here every time. If UTG calls in front of you, then hopefully he beats your hand to quadruple up. On the next hand I would go all-in again. Your opponents will be very unlikely to call all-ins in the next two hands with the tiny stack around. I think open-raising virtually every opportunity while it is 4-handed has less risk IMO.

Dave S

Crosby
12-04-2004, 10:14 AM
[ QUOTE ]
The dumbest part is that he (the opponent) only raised halfway preflop. If he intended to call if reraised, he should've just pushed them in in the first place. There's no way Hero gets involved then.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think about it, this is a pretty ridiculous statement. You're saying that he made a mistake by not just shoving (which I agree with), but you're attempting to illustrate it through the results of what happened here. If someone told you before the hand that if you raised 2/3 of your stack instead of all in with 77 that 74s would come over the top of you, you would make the smaller raise too right?